Behind Israel's war drill - an Iranian component

Israel recently concluded its much-publicised war drill ‘Firm Hand ’, which among other things simulated strategic air strikes deep within enemy territory. This is in the backdrop of rising tensions with Iran and amid expectations of a new nuclear deal between the United States and Iran. Netanyahu, a firm opponent of Iran’s nuclear ambitions, has threatened Israel’s willingness to use military force to thwart Iran from crossing the nuclear threshold. However, this is markedly different from previous Israeli efforts to subvert nascent nuclear programs in its backyard. Its strikes against Iraqi and Syrian nuclear facilities were conducted with the utmost operational secrecy and security, with deniability being a key cover against retaliatory attacks. Even its previous moves against the Iranian nuclear program were conducted with the same level of security and deniability. 

Israel's problem with an Iranian nuclear deal

Israel has long distrusted the Iranian nuclear program. Aside from Iran’s chequered nuclear past, which included the development of nuclear weapons in secret, Israel saw the previous Iranian nuclear deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA ), as enabling the emergence of a nuclear Iran. To Israel’s credit, the JCPOA never sought to indefinitely postpone Iran’s nuclear aspirations, rather delay it and allow for trust to be built between the West and Iran. Israel under Netanyahu lobbied the West to put an end to any such aspirations by either ‘fixing the deal or nixing it’, referring to removing the expiration dates on restrictions on the Iranian nuclear program or abandoning the deal altogether. Trump’s withdrawal of the United States from the JCPOA definitely nixed it.

Why then has Israel now begun publicly proclaiming its plans and military preparedness to counter an Iranian nuclear breakthrough? Iran’s continued nuclear progress and the willingness of the American establishment to reach a new nuclear deal with Iran have once again endangered Israel’s position. However, a conflict with Iran today won’t be the same as one with other powers in the region. Iran is most likely just a political decision away from crossing the nuclear threshold. Its proxies in Israel’s immediate neighbourhood are also sure to engage in the conflict, should one arise. While Israel might be prepared for such a multi-front war, as its war drill sought to convey, it certainly won’t be an easy one for it to win. A more likely hypothesis behind the public nature of its threats is that Israel hopes to leverage any remaining sway it holds over the West to deny Iran a nuclear deal. This is consistent with Netanyahu’s history of opposition to a nuclear deal with Iran and his insistence that the West must adopt a ‘firm hand’ in dealing with Iran. Its threats of military action might be a means of achieving just that, lest another deleterious war break out in the region. 

Israel's catalytic posture

This hypothesis lines up fairly well with academic literature on Israel’s nuclear posture. According to the posture optimisation theory as advanced by Vipin Narang, Israel’s nuclear weapons serve a ‘catalytic’ purpose, that is, to catalyse western intervention to protect its interests. Israel’s intransigence against an Iranian nuclear deal and its threats to use military force can be seen as further validation of the catalytic role of Israel’s military and nuclear strategy. The tide might however be against Israel this time. It is unlikely that Iran is going to agree to a deal that sees a reversal of the nuclear enrichment gains it made since it pulled out of the JCPOA. The other opponent in the Middle East to a nuclear-capable Iran and one that Israel had been wooing, Saudi Arabia, has made great strides in its relations with Iran. European nations also favour Iran and the United States returning to a nuclear deal. In conclusion, it is evident to Israel that the likelihood of preventing a nuclear Iran is lessening; its war drills are just another tool in its arsenal of catalytic posturing to disincentivise a nuclear deal with Iran.