There will be NO blackouts this winter!
Wayne Mitchell
Consultant / Senior leader / Energy / Utilities / Energy transition / Net zero / Commercial / Energy end-users
I think I have now read enough, heard enough, and discussed enough to say that the recent and current dire warnings about blackouts this winter aren’t helpful or necessary. In fact, in my opinion quite the opposite, we should be applauding the planning by National Grid ESO, the electricity system operator, and National Grid, the National Transmission System (NTS) operator for gas, for keeping the lights on and the gas flowing this winter, which invariably they will. The prospect of blackouts, or rota disconnections to use the proper term, occurs only in National Grid ESO’s most extreme scenario and where the Electricity Supply Emergency Code (ESEC) is called upon.
National Grid ESO have clearly stated the following, “Our central view remains, as set out in the Base Case, that there will be adequate margins (3.7GW / 6.3%) through the winter to ensure Great Britain remains within the reliability standard, although we expect there to be days where we will need to utilise many of the tools in our operational toolkit, including use of system notices.” National Grid ESO goes on to say, “Given the scale of uncertainty and risks associated with the current geopolitical situation we have developed a range of new tools, including publishing an early view of winter to help the market understand risks, contracting to retain approximately 2GW of coal fired generation that would otherwise have closed, and introducing an innovative Demand Flexibility Service to incentivise customers to reduce consumption at periods when margins are tight.” The Base Case assumes that capacity across all providers is available in line with commitments secured under the Capacity Market.
A more extreme case has been modelled where electricity doesn’t flow through interconnections from Europe due to a shortage of gas and/or generation, and also an even more extreme scenario where there is a shortfall of gas in Great Britain on top of the cessation of flow through interconnections. In the first scenario National Grid ESO would call upon coal plant and the Demand Flexibility Service which would maintain adequate margins. In the most extreme scenario National Grid ESO assumes there is insufficient gas supply available in Great Britain in addition to no electricity available to import from continental Europe and would call upon “All possible mitigating strategies, including our new measures, to minimise the disruption.” National Grid ESO’s gas counterparts who manage the NTS say in their own Winter Outlook, “In the unlikely event there is insufficient gas supply available in Great Britain to meet demand, and should the market be unable to resolve the resultant imbalance, we have the necessary physical, commercial and market based tools to manage a supply and demand imbalance, including those related to a Gas Supply Emergency, should it be necessary.”
Only in the most extreme scenario modelled by National Grid ESO and with the use of the ESEC will it be necessary to use the rota disconnection processes. Importantly, the extreme scenario is modelled on a two-week period in January in which around 10GW of CCGTs are unavailable due to a gas shortage and not for the entire winter. Before we get anywhere near this scenario we have to assume that under the ESEC, if called upon, there would be a public appeal for voluntary reductions in consumption and directions to business users to restrict or cease consumption.
All of that said, should we be preparing for the worst? Yes, why not? If the current market price signals aren't enough to push us all to be more energy efficient perhaps the prospect of rota disconnections will prompt us all to be more cautious with our energy use this winter.
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You can read more about the winter scenarios and the Electricity Supply Emergency Code (ESEC) by following the links below.
VP of Marketing at Kao Data
1yThis is an excellent summary Wayne Mitchell and has stopped me immediately popping down to Tescos in Stevenage to buy 20,000 candles and some firewood.