Can The World Transition to 100% Renewable Energy?

It is estimated that per capita energy demand will peak before 2030, according to the latest World Energy Council report. This is in complete contrast to historic growth levels, which have seen global demand for energy more than double since 1970. The report suggests that technological innovation, government policies, and lower growth expectations will have a significant impact on the sector in the coming decade. The study also predicts that Solar and the wind, which currently account for approximately four percent of power generation, will see the largest increase so that by 2060 they will represent between 20 percent and 39 percent of power generation.

But the real question to ask here is, can this solar and wind transition happen any faster? Can we keep the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to chase efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C? Have these technologies have reached a point of development saturation that can enable wide spread adaptation like fossil fuel technologies?

Be surprised, the answer is yes! And it’s much more optimistic than we think.

The latest roadmap to a 100% renewable energy future from Stanford's Mark Z. Jacobson and 26 colleagues is the most specific global vision yet, outlining infrastructure changes that 139 countries can make to be entirely powered by the wind, water, and sunlight by 2050 after electrification of all energy sectors.

These 139 countries represent about 99% of current top global polluters. Not just focused on energy generation, the real advantage of this transition is that it can effectively create long term jobs for millions and millions of people and can effectively decrease air pollution and subsequent health hazards and deaths. In certain regions of the world, renewable energy prices are already on par with the conventional energy prices with rapid deployment of large scale renewable energy projects. For instance, China – top global polluter, is leading the renewable energy revolution by installing 35 GW of solar generation alone in 2016. In the neighboring country India, solar power plant tariff bids have been sharply falling each time for solar parks constructions. Renewable energy technologies are the way forward for a low-carbon future and to create energy self-sufficient countries.

But what is the current status of the renewable energy technologies that can contribute to this transition?

As luck would have it, with continuous investment in research and development of new renewable energy technologies, and growing government initiatives for renewable energy technologies like wind, solar and wave and tidal, we can revolutionize the way we use energy. Solar panels are the best way to power remote locations where grid connectivity is not viable and economical. The UN Development Programme (UNDP) is enabling the ambitious solar power installation throughout the continent through innovative financing and business models. With real advancement in solar research and development, several technologies such as the CSP, Non-CSP, are available for large scale commercial development. Besides, there is immense potential for solar water pumps and solar rooftops, in agricultural based economies like the South East Asian countries such as India, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Myanmar, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. The silicon module super league companies such as the Canadian Solar, Hanwha Q CELLS, JA Solar, Jinko Solar, LONGi, GCL and Trina Solar have an immense contribution to play in the solar transition.

How about wind energy?

According to Mark Z. Jacobson team’s analysis, to reach 100% renewable energy generation by 2050, wind energy technologies such as offshore and onshore wind will be contributing about 37.14% to the global energy mix. Companies such as Vestas Wind Systems, General Electric, Goldwind Science & Technology, Gamesa, Enercon, The Nordex Group and Siemens have invested several million dollars already in the development of multiple offshore and onshore wind projects thus making wind energy the one of the fastest growing clean energy sources presently.

What should not be neglected is that these established technologies presently have many shortcomings including large land use for commercial development, large scale storage option and policy uncertainty for renewable energy feed in tariffs. Solar plant revolutionizing countries such as China have recently changed the feed in tariff structure that has supported wide scale implementation of solar power.

How is the renewable energy sector going to solve the land use problem?

Regarding the land use constraint, let us analyze it from the point of view of a tiny industrial nation such as Singapore.

Singapore has a land area of 719.1 km2 and it is one of the top economies in the South East Asian region. Constructing large scale solar and wind power is practically not possible and the tiny industrial nation must rely on fossil fuel use only. However, technologies such as floating power plants and wave and tidal energy generation are one of the ways to go for the country currently to meet its renewable energy demand. Not just Singapore, many smaller nations, and coastal countries can make use of this technology and be energy self-sufficient.

How crucial is energy storage?

Energy storage is going to play a decisive part in the wide spread implementation of future renewable energy systems. Wind, water, and solar face daily and seasonal fluctuation, making it possible that they could miss large demands for energy, which is where the energy storage systems play the part. Solar and wind energy coupled with energy storage technologies such as battery storage systems, mechanical energy storage options such as the compressed air energy storage (CAES) and flywheels, and super capacitors are expected to be implemented on a large scale to overcome the uncertainty of energy generation from renewable energy sources. 

Do we need this change?

Absolutely. The advantages of renewable energy systems are too high to overlook and their contribution to reducing the global climate change is matchless. In terms of upfront costs, most of these would be needed in any case to replace existing energy, and the rest is an investment that far more than pays itself off over time by nearly eliminating health and climate costs. We can achieve the enormous social benefits of a zero-emission energy system at essentially no extra cost.