Charting a Future: Unraveling the Complexities of 2024’s Global Landscape

The year 2023 unfolded as a tapestry of unsettling worldwide events, each contributing its unique narrative to the intricate fabric of our global landscape. From conflicts challenging the resilience of many nations and communities, with devastating impact on human beings, those who cannot escape and the increasing numbers of people forced to flee, to increasing inequalities and the urgent issue of climate change, these events unquestionably leave an indelible mark on the future. We have seen the global displacement crisis deepen in 2023; there are now more than 114 million people forced from their homes.

On the other hand, we also witnessed hope, solidarity, and action in 2023. The second Global Refugee Forum in December emerged as a pivotal moment, bringing together the international community to address the predicament of refugees worldwide and why the world needs to care. The commitments made during the forum set the stage for deeper collaboration to improve the lives of millions of refugees and their host communities.

Co-hosted by UNHCR - the UN Refugee Agency - and Switzerland and co-convened by Colombia, France, Japan, Jordan and Uganda, the forum gathered over 4,200 participants from 168 countries, making it the world's largest international gathering on refugees and indeed perhaps forced displacement more broadly. The forum showcased a global commitment to find solutions to complex displacement-related challenges. Financial commitments exceeded $2.2 billion, and 1,600 pledges included important legal support, policy shifts, development work, and the resettlement of 1 million refugees by 2030. Most importantly, the Global Refugee Forum created a spirit of a new multilateralism.

Looking Ahead

As we step into 2024, energized and ready to deliver with others on the commitments from the Global Refugee Forum, we look ahead at an equally complex year, one where humanity will be tested again amidst myriad challenges and we must adopt a collective responsibility for a better tomorrow.

Several key trends demand our attention as they will shape our work and priorities in the context of the global forced displacement crisis. Unresolved conflicts, insecurity, discrimination, and ongoing emergencies persist, with 25-30 active global conflicts affecting millions of people every day.

We have observed a significantly larger number of people travelling together, generally in an irregular manner, over the same routes and using the same means of transport, but for different reasons. The many families travelling in this manner often have either been forced from their homes by armed conflict or persecution or are on the move in search of a better life. We will work together with governments, those on the move, and key partners like sister agency @IOM to strengthen protection and solutions through what the UN High Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi calls a “routes-based or panoramic” approach in the context of these mixed movements, especially across the Americas, Europe, Southern/South-East Asia and Sahel/North Africa.

Climate displacement emerges as a growing concern, with projections indicating that 1.2 billion people could be displaced by 2050 due to natural disasters and ecological threats. This underscores the need for a continued and heightened focus on climate-related issues in global discussions and more importantly, actions.

Migration and displacement take center stage in the political arena, with national elections in more than 40 countries, accounting for over 40% of the world's population. Notably, countries like Bangladesh, Brazil, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Pakistan, Russia, the United States, the UK, as well as the European Union are scheduled to go to the polls. This makes 2024 an important year for global democracy, with significant implications for refugee hosting countries, UNHCR's top donors, and nations in the midst of active emergencies.

United in Action

Together with these dynamic trends, a challenging funding situation looms like a dark cloud over the work of operational humanitarian agencies like mine. The success of initiatives launched to pursue solutions, stronger protection to prevent gender-based violence, local action everywhere, better education, innovative finance, climate action, livelihoods and jobs, connectivity, mental health, peace and development partnership, and many others at the Global Refugee Forum relies on sustained financial support. The international community must work together to ensure that financial commitments match the scale of the challenges faced by refugees and their host communities.

As we embark on a new year, let us carry the lessons and commitments from 2023 forward. The challenges of unresolved conflicts, climate displacement, and the intertwined nature of mixed flows with politics demand collective action. At UNHCR, we continue to prioritize the search for solutions to enable the forcibly displaced to live their lives in dignity and peace. This remains a core part of our work.

We cannot do it alone – partnerships to deliver these solutions are crucial to our collective success, particularly as we continue to pursue the Sustainable Development Goals in earnest.

More than ever, we are committed to creating a more inclusive and compassionate world for refugees, displaced, and stateless populations. The international community has an opportunity to make 2024 a year of positive change, guided by the principles of solidarity, cooperation and shared responsibility. Let’s do it together. Too many rely on our success to fail.