China's "New Three" / "新三样": (Part I) Lithium-ion Batteries
Ricardo Moreira 李卡多
Procurement / Sourcing Gardening & Electricals, OBI Group Sourcing | Talent Development, Pitch Bootcamp | TEDx Speaker | THINC Fellow 23-24
In the previous article, we tried to understand what is the meaning of China’s “New Three” , where does the term come from and the business and political emphasis surrounding these three industries.
In this (and coming articles), we will do a deep dive into each of these green technologies, the considerations at both industry and product level, product development trends and specific applications. But before we go down Lithium lane and product applications, why don’t we start by understanding the history of the battery, where are we today, and where are we going within this decade?
Have you ever wondered what our world would be like today if there were no batteries? The battery is an increasingly important part of everyday life for every single one of us. Try to think how many devices you use at home or at work that need the energy of a battery to function, whether it be a common AA or AAA battery, or one that belongs to the larger categories of lead-acid or lithium-ion batteries used in cars.
The energy produced by batteries has been supporting human activity for many years and continues to evolve. This device has become part of our day-to-day life, and more and more industries are going electric to achieve greater efficiency and reduce environmental impact.
But what exactly is a battery?
What is a Battery?
A battery is essentially a device that stores chemical energy that is converted into electricity. Basically, batteries are small chemical reactors, with the reaction producing energetic electrons, ready to flow through the external device. It is made up of one or more electrochemical cells, each with an electrolyte, two electrodes (the anode and the cathode), and other components. The cathode is the positive electrode and is the location of reduction, whereas the anode is the negative electrode and is where oxidation occurs. The passage of electric current via the electrodes' external circuit is made possible by the electrolyte, which makes it easier for ions to transfer between the electrodes. Batteries can be classified as primary (dispose after use) or secondary (rechargeable).
Batteries play a crucial function in the contemporary world and made important contributions in:
Batteries have become an essential part of our everyday lives, powering everything from smartphones and laptops to electric vehicles and renewable energy systems. However, the history of batteries dates back thousands of years and is a fascinating story of human innovation, perseverance, and ingenuity.
From Baghdad to Volta – History of the Battery
Batteries have been with us for a long time (more than 2000 years).
In 1938 the Director of the Baghdad Museum found what is now referred to as the "Baghdad Battery" in the basement of the museum. Analysis dated it at around 250BC and of Mesopotamian origin. It is not known exactly what the electrolyte solution would have been, but we can imagine that they might have used vinegar or wine. Uses may have included electroplating, pain relief or a religious tingle.
The discovery of the principle behind batteries came only around 1780. An Italian biologist called Luigi Galvani discovered that when two different types of metal came into contact with a dead frog’s leg, an electrical current ran between them and caused the leg to twitch. This is said to mark the first discovery of the principle behind batteries.
Then came the first ‘true battery’. An Italian physicist stacked discs of copper (Cu) and zinc (Zn) separated by cloth soaked in salty water. So the copper becomes a positive (+) pole and the zinc a negative (-) pole, and when the two are joined by a conductor, electricity flows from the copper to the zinc. This is the Volta battery, which forms the basis for modern chemical batteries. It was discovered by another Italian named Alessandro Volta, whom the battery was named after, in 1800.
And from that moment on, the development of the battery has been nothing short of mesmerizing with all different kinds of architectures and chemistires. From the 19th progress of the “Leclanché Cell” that gave origin to Carl Gassner’s “Dry Cell” and later Lead-Acid batteries; from the first storage batteries of Nickel-Cadmium and into the 20th century Thomas Edison’s Nickel-Iron; from Zinc-Carbon to Alkaline Batteries and Nickel-Cadmium Batteries; innovation in chemistry and construction was all around.
But the real ‘Revolution’ came with the prized Lithium-ion Battery and has been evolving ever since.
The Great Leap Forward’ – Lithium-ion Battery
New technologies often demand more compact, higher capacity, safe, rechargeable batteries. Lithium is one of the lightest elements in the periodic table and it has one of the largest electrochemical potentials, therefore this combination produces some of the highest possible voltages in the most compact and lightest volumes – making it a prime candidate for earlier chemical research in this field.
During the oil crisis in the 1970s, Stanley Whittingham, an English chemist working for Exxon mobile at the time, started exploring the idea of a new battery – one that could recharge on its own in a short amount of time and perhaps lead to fossil-free energy one day. In his first attempt, he tried using titanium disulfide and lithium metal as the electrodes, but the combination posed serious safety concerns. After the batteries short-circuited and caught on fire, Exxon decided to halt the experiment.
However, John B. Goodenough, currently an engineering professor at the University of Texas at Austin, had another idea. In the 1980s, he experimented using lithium cobalt oxide as the cathode instead of titanium disulfide, which paid off: the battery doubled its energy potential.
Five years later, Akira Yoshino of Meijo University in Nagoya, Japan, made another swap. Instead of using reactive lithium metal as anode, he tried using a carbonaceous material, petroleum coke, which led to a revolutionary finding: not only was the new battery significantly safer without lithium metal, the battery performance was more stable, thus producing the first prototype of the lithium-ion battery.
Together, these three discoveries led to the lithium-ion battery as we know it. And these three scientists received the Nobel Prize in Chemistry 2019 for their work in developing this battery.
The Second Leap Forward – Nano Technology
Depending on the transition metal used in the lithium-ion battery, the cell can have a higher capacity but can be more reactive and susceptible to a phenomenon known as thermal runaway. In the case of lithium cobalt oxide (LiCoO2) batteries made by Sony in the 1990s, this led to many such batteries catching fire. The possibility of making battery cathodes from nano-scale material and hence more reactive was out of the question.
But in the 1990s Goodenough again made a huge leap in battery technology by introducing a stable lithium-ion cathode based on lithium iron and phosphate. This cathode was thermally stable and meant that nano-scale lithium iron phosphate (LiFePO4) or lithium ferrophosphate (LFP) materials could now be made safely into large format cells that can be rapidly charged and discharged.
Many new applications now exist for these new cells, from power tools to hybrid and electric vehicle. Perhaps the most important application will be the storage of domestic electric energy for households.
Understanding Today’s Different Battery Technologies
Numerous battery types have been created in the field of electrochemical energy storage. The differing demands across various applications are what led to the development of these unique battery chemistries. In terms of energy density, power density, cycle life, safety, temperature sensitivity, cost, and environmental effect, many applications have specific requirements. A pacemaker battery, for instance, would need to be extremely dependable and have a long lifespan, but an electric car battery would need to have great energy and power density. Therefore, no battery chemistry is suitable for all applications, many battery types have been created, each with a unique combination of properties and trade-offs. Here are some of the common applications for each type:
As we can see, the difference in the chemistry of the batteries is mainly related to the specific parameters we wish to achieve in different applications. The image below shows, for example, how we might arrange the various battery kinds according to their energy densities:
So what are the main performance parameters to consider when selecting different types of batteries?
Anyone working with battery systems has to understand and handle these factors effectively. The secret to improving performance and prolonging the lifespan of battery systems may lie in understanding how these variables (and other like State of Charge, State of Health, Nominal Voltage, Internal Resistance, Cycle Life, C-Rate) interact and vary over time.
Understanding Today’s Different Battery Technologies Demand
In terms of conventional Li-ion chemistries demand (considering EV demand from 2022, nearly 90% of total battery demand), lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide (NMC) remained the dominant battery chemistry with a market share of 60%, followed by lithium iron phosphate (LFP) with a share of just under 30%, and nickel cobalt aluminium oxide (NCA) with a share of about 8%.
Lithium iron phosphate (LFP) cathode chemistries have reached their highest share in the past decade. This trend is driven mainly by the preferences of Chinese OEMs. Around 95% of the LFP batteries for electric LDVs went into vehicles produced in China, and BYD alone represents 50% of demand. Tesla accounted for 15%, and the share of LFP batteries used by Tesla increased from 20% in 2021 to 30% in 2022. Around 85% of the cars with LFP batteries manufactured by Tesla were manufactured in China, with the remainder being manufactured in the United States with cells imported from China. In total, only around 3% of electric cars with LFP batteries were manufactured in the United States in 2022.
LFP batteries contrast with other chemistries in their use of iron and phosphorus rather than the nickel, manganese and cobalt found in NCA and NMC batteries. The downside of LFP is that the energy density tends to be lower than that of NMC. LFP batteries also contain phosphorus, which is used in food production. If all batteries today were LFP, they would account for nearly 1% of current agricultural phosphorus use by mass, suggesting that conflicting demands for phosphorus may arise in the future as battery demand increases.
With regards to anodes, a number of chemistry changes have the potential to improve energy density (watt-hour per kilogram, or Wh/kg). For example, silicon can be used to replace all or some of the graphite in the anode in order to make it lighter and thus increase the energy density. Silicon-doped graphite already entered the market a few years ago, and now around 30% of anodes contain silicon. Another option is innovative lithium metal anodes, which could yield even greater energy density when they become commercially available.
The variability in price and availability of critical minerals can also explain some of the developments in battery chemistry from the last few years. NMC chemistries using an equal ratio of nickel, manganese, and cobalt (NMC333 or NMC111) were popular until 2015. Since then, cobalt price increases and concerns affecting public acceptance of cobalt mining have contributed to a shift towards lower-cobalt ratios, such as NMC622, and then NMC811, which are nevertheless more difficult to manufacture. In 2022, the price of nickel increased, reaching a peak twice as high as the 2015-2020 average. This created incentives to use chemistries that are less reliant on nickel, such as LFP, despite their lower energy density.
Lithium carbonate prices have also been steadily increasing over the past two years. In 2021, prices multiplied four- to five-fold, and continued to rise throughout 2022, nearly doubling between 1 January 2022 and 1 January 2023. At the beginning of 2023, lithium prices stood six times above their average over the 2015-2020 period. In contrast to nickel and lithium, manganese prices have been relatively stable. One reason for the increase in prices for lithium, nickel and cobalt was the insufficient supply compared to demand in 2021. Although nickel and cobalt supply surpassed demand in 2022, this was not the case for lithium, causing its price to rise more strongly over the year. Between January and March 2023, lithium prices dropped 20%, returning to their late 2022 level. The combination of an expected 40% increase in supply and slower growth in demand, especially for EVs in China, has contributed to this trend. This drop – if sustained – could translate into lower battery prices.
The effect of increased battery material prices differed across various battery chemistries in 2022, with the strongest increase being observed for LFP batteries (over 25%), while NMC batteries experienced an increase of less than 15%. Since LFP batteries contain neither nickel nor cobalt, which are relatively expensive compared to iron and phosphorus, the price of lithium plays a relatively larger role in determining the final cost. Given that the price of lithium increased at a higher rate than the price of nickel and cobalt, the price of LFP batteries increased more than the price of NMC batteries. Nonetheless, LFP batteries remain less expensive than NCA and NMC per unit of energy capacity.
The price of batteries also varies across different regions, with China having the lowest prices on average, and the rest of the Asia Pacific region having the highest. This price discrepancy is influenced by the fact that around 65% of battery cells and almost 80% of cathodes are manufactured in China.
Understanding Tomorrow’s Different Batteries Technologies
New battery technology breakthrough is happening rapidly. Advanced new batteries are currently being developed, with some already on the market.
Improvements in battery technology can be achieved in a huge range of different ways and focus on several different components to deliver certain performance characteristics of the battery. While there are various paths that battery technology evolution could take, S&P Global has defined three new alternatives to lithium-ion batteries in the table below:
S&P Global also projects that the readiness of each next-generation battery technology is dependent on how much the technology deviates from the existing Li-ion battery technologies. As EVs continue to dominate Li-ion demand (98% of next generation), the performance of new battery technologies face a strong influence from the design requirements of light full-electric vehicles. Low flammability, faster charging with moderately higher energy density tends to be the focus of next decade.
Alternatives to Li-ion Batteries – The ‘Salt’ Battery (Sodium-ion)
In recent years, alternatives to Li-ion batteries have been emerging, notably sodium-ion (Na-ion). Like lithium, sodium is an alkali metal found in Group 1 of the periodic table. The two metals are placed precisely one under the other in the first column of the periodic table, meaning they share a number of physical and chemical properties.
These similar properties led researchers to carry out the first studies on sodium batteries between 1970 and 1990, about the same time as the studies on lithium batteries. The latter, however, ended up enjoying greater success and went on to be commercialized, putting the sodium battery on the back burner.
But it has picked up since then, especially given the increased demand for more battery solutions and the increase of prices in typical Li-ion raw materials. Sodium-ion chemistry has the dual advantage of relying on lower cost materials than Li-ion, leading to cheaper batteries, and of completely avoiding the need for critical minerals. It is currently the only viable chemistry that does not contain lithium.
According to forecasts, the sodium-ion battery market is expected to grow at a rate of 27% per year over the next decade. Annual production will presumably go from 10 GWh in 2025 to approximately 70 GWh in 2033, an increase of nearly 600%.
Sodium-ion technology could become even more widespread thanks to the fact that largely the same technologies are used for sodium-cell and lithium-cell production, providing the possibility to convert the production lines and making it even more cost-effective.
The Na-ion battery developed by China’s CATL is estimated to cost 30% less than an LFP battery. Conversely, Na-ion batteries do not have the same energy density as their Li-ion counterpart (respectively 75 to 160 Wh/kg compared to 120 to 260 Wh/kg). This could make Na-ion relevant for urban vehicles with lower range, or for stationary storage, but could be more challenging to deploy in locations where consumers prioritize maximum range autonomy, or where charging is less accessible. There are nearly 30 Na-ion battery manufacturing plants currently operating, planned or under construction, for a combined capacity of over 100 GWh, almost all in China. For comparison, the current manufacturing capacity of Li-ion batteries is around 1 500 GWh.
Beyond Chemistry – Battery Form Factors (Cylindrical, Prismatic, Pouch)
Li-ion (and other) batteries come in different form factors, each with its own advantages and disadvantages. The form factor refers to a battery’s physical shape and size. The three most common form factors for are cylindrical, prismatic, and pouch.
There is not a clear winner, but the battery you choose can affect the design of a product in several different ways. For example, each of these battery form factors can have a different temperature distribution and heat transfer model.
Cylindrical Cells
A cylindrical cell consists of sheet-like anodes, separators, and cathodes that are sandwiched, rolled up, and packed into a cylinder-shaped can. This type is one of the first mass-produced types of batteries and is still very popular (suited for automated manufacturing).
The most significant advantage of cylindrical cells is their high energy density and long lifespan, which makes them ideal for use in EVs that require a lot of power.
The round shape of the battery distributes the internal pressure from side reactions over the cell circumference almost evenly. This allows the cell to tolerate a higher level of internal pressure without deformation. When combining cylindrical cells into packs and modules, the cell's circular cross-section does not allow us to fully utilize the available space. As a result, the packaging density of cylindrical cells is low. However, thermal management of a pack of cylindrical cells can be easier because the space cavities let the coolant easily circulate around the cells within a battery pack.
In terms of size, cylindrical cells are usually produced in standard models. Common sizes are the 18650 type (18 mm diameter, 65 mm height) and 21700 (21 mm diameter, 70 mm height). They are commonly found in medical instruments, laptops, e-bikes, power tools, and also used in Tesla cars.
Prismatic Cells
Li-ion prismatic cells consist of large sheets of anodes, cathodes, and separators sandwiched, rolled up, and pressed to fit into a metallic or hard-plastic housing in cubic form. The electrodes can also be assembled by layer stacking rather than jelly rolling.
Parts of the electrode and separator sheets of a prismatic cell that are close to the container corners can experience more stress, damaging electrode coating and lead to non-uniform distribution of the electrolyte.
When combining prismatic cells into packs, the cell box-like shape enables optimal use of the available space. However, this optimal space is achieved at the cost of more challenging thermal management. This is because there are no space cavities between the cells as there are in a pack of cylindrical cells.
Prismatic cells are manufactured with a capacity ranging from several ampere-hours targeted for laptops and cell phones to hundreds of ampere-hours designed for EV applications. Prismatic cells can be more expensive to manufacture. Besides, they can expand with use. Although they suffer less from swelling than pouch cells, they do not perform as well as cylindrical cells in this regard.
Pouch Cells
Pouch cells do not have a rigid enclosure and use a sealed flexible foil as the cell container. This is a somewhat minimalistic approach to packaging; it reduces weight and leads to flexible cells that can easily fit the available space of a given product.
The electrode and separator layers of a pouch cell are stacked rather than jelly rolled. But its design should allocate enough space for the cell swelling - swelling of 8-10% can occur after 500 cycles.
Pouch cells are the most space-efficient of all the EV battery form factors, making them ideal for smaller EVs or tools. They are also the lightest form factor, making them perfect for use in portable electronics. However, pouch cells have a lower energy density than cylindrical and prismatic cells, making them less suitable for high-power and also less durable than cylindrical cells and prone to punctures and leaks.
In conclusion, the form factor of a battery is an essential consideration for a particular application. Cylindrical cells are best suited for high-power, prismatic cells for high power-to-weight ratio, and pouch cells for small and portable devices.
Beyond Chemistry – Tesla’s “Tabless” Battery Cell
Tesla's Battery Day in 2020 came with an important announcement: a tabless lithium-ion battery cell. What Elon Musk calls a "massive breakthrough" in cylindrical cells. That same concept, now 4 years later, has made it to the mass production of many factory floors. So what it is and how does this architecture compare to traditional cells?
A cylindrical lithium-ion cell uses several different layers of chemical compounds to store energy. As shown below, sheet-like anodes, separators, and cathodes are sandwiched, rolled up, and packed into a cylinder-shaped can. Each of the cathode and anode electrodes uses small metallic components called "tabs" to connect to the positive and negative terminals of the battery can.
The problem with this is that in larger anode and cathode electrodes, the electrons need to travel a longer distance as depicted above and the ohmic resistance of the path leads to power loss and consequently, internal heating of the battery.
Besides, the current chooses the path of least impedance in the electrode plain, and hence, the current distribution is not uniform. Non-uniform current distribution results in non-uniform utilization of the active materials that coat the electrodes.
To address this issue, we can employ multiple pairs of tabs along the electrodes. But tab manufacturing is challenging and can affect battery reliability and performance. Tabs are metallic components welded onto electrodes. Welding burrs might, for example, penetrate the separator layer between the positive and negative electrodes and cause an internal short circuit. Such manufacturing defects can lead to battery fires and explosions. On the cost side, tabs may not be a desirable option because tab welding adds an extra step in battery production, increasing costs.
The basic idea of the "tabless battery" is to achieve the conventional tab functionality through a conductive portion that runs along the electrode.
With this tabless design, the maximum distance that electrons should travel is the height of the electrode rather than its length as in the case of a conventional tabbed electrode. The height of an electrode is only 5-20% of its length. Hence, the ohmic resistance that the electrons face and consequently, the heat that is internally generated will reduce significantly.
Additionally, the current distribution will be uniform across the tabless electrode. In this way, local hotspots with large over potentials that can cause unwanted chemical reactions are avoided and the battery's lifetime is improved.
Beyond Chemistry – Battery Management System (BMS)
A battery pack's performance, use, and safety are monitored and managed by a battery management system (BMS), an intelligent electronic device. It is a crucial component of contemporary battery technology, especially in uses for lithium-ion batteries. The BMS is in charge of a number of duties, including keeping track of the temperature, voltage, state of health (SOH), and state of charge (SOC) of each cell in a battery pack. It also offers defense against situations that could harm the battery, such as overcharging, over-discharging, short circuits, and thermal runaway.
The necessity of BMS in these systems can be attributed to a number of factors:
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BMS are essential for the best performance of battery packs. They achieve this by performing a number of tasks, such as monitoring, protecting, balancing, and reporting. The performance, longevity, and safety of battery systems are all guaranteed by each of these functions.
Li-ion Batteries Global Market - 2030 Outlook
Global demand for Li-ion batteries is expected to soar over the next decade.
In an earlier publication from 2019, Global Battery Alliance (GBA) projected a market size of 2.6 TWh and yearly growth of 25 percent by 2030. But a later 2022 analysis projects that the entire lithium-ion (Li-ion) battery chain, from mining through recycling, could grow by over 30 percent annually from 2022 to 2030, when it would reach a value of more than USD 400 billion and a market size of 4.7 TWh.
Faced with these imperatives, market players acting in the battery industry should play offense, not defense, when it comes to green initiatives. Batteries for mobility applications, such as electric vehicles (EVs), will account for the vast bulk of demand in 2030. This is largely driven by three major drivers:
Battery energy storage systems (BESS) – which will be address in the next part of this article series - will have a CAGR of 30 percent, and the GWh required to power these applications in 2030 will be comparable to the GWh needed for all applications today.
In line with the surging demand for Li-ion batteries across industries, McKinsey projects, together with Global Battery Alliance (GBA), that revenues along the entire value chain will increase 5-fold, from about USD 85 billion in 2022 to over USD 400 billion in 2030. Active materials and cell manufacturing may have the largest revenue pools. Mining is not the only option for sourcing battery materials, since recycling is also an option. Although the recycling segment is expected to be relatively small in 2030, it is projected to grow more than three-fold in the following decade, when more batteries reach their end-of-life.
It is also important to consider/avoid extreme exposure to a single source: China. Consider the global market distribution of lithium-ion battery makers in 2023:
China-based CATL was the leading lithium-ion battery maker as of the end of 2023, with a market share of almost 37 percent. But if you consider exclusively Chinese manufactures, they easily amount to 2/3 of global production capacity (not to mention other product streams along the value chain).
Companies in the EU and US are among those that have announced plans for new mining, refining, and cell production projects to help meet demand, such as the creation or expansion of battery factories. Many European and US companies are also exploring new business models for the recycling segment. Together, these activities could help localize some percentage of battery supply chains.
The Future of the Value Chain – 2030 Outlook
McKinsey presents their 2030 Outlook for the battery value chain with a strong focus on 3 elements:
A circular battery value chain can effectively couple the transport and power sectors and is a foundation for transitioning to other sources of energy, such as hydrogen and power-to-liquid, after 2025 to achieve the target of limiting the increase in emissions to 1.5° C above pre-industrial levels. Despite the accelerated emphasis on sustainability during the COVID-19 pandemic, global CO2 emissions reached an all-time high in 2021 and 2022—meaning that just over six years are left before the 1.5°C carbon budget is depleted. This requires the highest urgency to act.
Current regulations encourage circularity, and a shift to this model could bring many benefits. For instance, companies would encounter fewer supply bottlenecks resulting from the limited availability of raw materials. Circularity could benefit the environment since companies would less frequently engage in virgin raw material mining and refining. On the financial side, companies might capture additional value if they reuse raw materials contained in end-of-life batteries.
Digital technology could increase circularity by providing the transparency and data management required to create an efficient ecosystem in which batteries and materials can be traced through end-of-life.
Battery manufacturers may find new opportunities in recycling as the market matures. Companies could create a closed-loop, domestic supply chain that involves the collection, recycling, reuse, or repair of used Li-ion batteries. The recycling industry alone could create a $6 billion profit pool by 2040, by which time revenue could exceed $40 billion—more than a three-fold increase from 2030 values.
The battery value chain is facing both significant opportunities and challenges due to its unprecedented growth. It is probably one of the most ambitious scaling and ESG transformations that this highly complex and global product value chain has seen. It will require stringent efforts, cross-industry collaboration, technological disruptions, public-private-partnerships and increased research activities to succeed. If mastered, however, the industry scale-up will potentially create more than $400 billion in value-chain revenues by 2030, contribute to up to 18 million jobs along the entire value chain and around 70 GtCO2e avoided cumulative road transport emissions from 2021 to 2050.
Ongoing Research And Future Li-ion Battery Technologies
The need for batteries with increasingly better energy densities, quicker charging periods, and improved safety is only increasing as the twenty-first century goes on. Several active research projects and cutting-edge technologies hold the potential to completely transform the battery industry.
Some recent advances in battery technologies include increased cell energy density, new active material chemistries such as solid-state batteries, and cell and packaging production technologies, including electrode dry coating and cell-to-pack design.
When making investments decisions, battery manufacturers could find these rapid advances challenging. After choosing the battery technology that fits their application needs best, they should then quickly secure the required raw material upstream, acquire the capable machinery mid-stream to suit the battery chemistry and application, and recruit the indispensable talent required for those projects.
The uncertainty about cell technologies and form factors supplied by different producers also imposes significant complexity costs and risks to the after-sales, repair, and maintenance of batteries.
As such, it is of particular importance to keep an eye on the following:
Battery Tech Case Study: Cordless Power Tools
As mentioned in the beginning of this article series, certain outlooks of China’s “New Three” industries would zoom in on specific applications correlated with my own profession. As such, and after the more macro view on Global demand, we will do a quick analysis of the product development and trends of batteries which power the future of Power Tools.
When lithium-ion power tool batteries showed up, they were a big improvement over Ni-Cad and NiMH chemistries. Two new designs are emerging, but in the pouch cell vs tabless cell batteries conversation, what exactly are we talking about? And does it really matter?
How has the Pouch Cell developed for Power Tools?
Pouch cells have been in the power tool industry longer than tabless cylindrical cells. We first saw it on Flex’s Stacked Lithium platform followed almost immediately by DeWalt’s PowerStack battery. Milwaukee’s M18 Forge is the latest to join the pouch cell offerings.
Traditional lithium-ion cells are round while pouch cells are flat. They’re not paper-thin, but only a few millimeters thick, and still house all the internal materials required for relevant amp-hour capacity.
When you make a power tool battery, you still need to use multiple cells just like you do with round cells. 18V/20V max batteries use 5-cell sets, 12V batteries use 3-cell sets, 36V batteries use 10-cell sets, etc. As Flex and DeWalt’s naming suggests, you stack these cells on top of one another when you build the pack.
How has the Tabless Cylindrical Cell developed in Power Tools?
Milwaukee’s MX Fuel Forge batteries were the first to have a tabless design for round cells. Ryobi followed in early 2024 with a tabless design on its High Performance Edge packs. And Bosch is out in the market with its ProCORE18V+ 8.0Ah, featuring countless parallel current pathways for less inner resistance and less heat. In combination with the heat management of COOLPACK 2.0, the tabless cell technology of ProCORE18V+ 8.0Ah helps ensure a longer battery lifetime.
Unlike pouch cells, a tabless design makes use of existing round cell shape. The “jelly roll” design is a nice way for the internal components to take up less room, but they typically have a soldered tab connection to the battery’s electronics. That tab is a significant source of electrical resistance and limits how much current you can safely run through it. The tabless connection removes that obstacle and opens up the electrical flow.
Pouch Cell vs Tabless Cell Batteries – Joining The (Lower) Resistance
The design of pouch cells is more than just another way to contain the cathode, anode, and separator in a different form factor. The tabless design is more than just a different way to connect round cells to the packs. The nature of both creates lower electrical resistance between the cell and the motor. That lower resistance results in more efficient energy transfer to the tool and the ability to safely push higher current through. Higher current produces more watts.
Consider also the newly launched Bosch ProCore 18V+ engineered with tabless 21700 Li-ion cells. It is very similar to their existing 8Ah battery, but with upgraded battery cells. The new battery pack is said to deliver the same ~90A max current and ~1500W max power output as the existing 8Ah battery, but can sustain the high power draw for longer. More work time, More work done.
We end up with batteries that can deliver higher power to the tool, run cooler, and have significantly longer service life. There are two positive consequences:
Pouch Cell vs Tabless Cell Batteries – Which One Is Better
It is not yet possible to assess if pouch cell technology is better than tabless cell design. Consider that Milwaukee is deploying both in its Forge batteries. The big takeaway is that both designs offer impressive performance enhancements, and it will take time on construction sites to see if one is more durable or has longer life than the other.
However, from some recent conversations with Battery Cell manufacturers supplying some of the biggest Power Tools players in the market, they are convinced Pouch Cell batteries will have a hard time beating the cost-efficiency of tables cell batteries. The supply chain and installed manufacturing machinery revolves largely around cylindrical cells. To accommodate tabless cells is pretty straightforward as they use the same dimensions as standard/previous models (18650 and 21700).
For pouch cell manufacturing to become feasible, a large scale adoption/deployment would be required.
Bonus Chapter – Atomic/Nuclear Battery
Since we’re looking into the future, why not gaze at something that may sound directly out of a Sci-Fi movie? Nuclear Batteries! Even if you never heard about it before, it is actually not that new.
Scientists have been studying the potential capabilities of nuclear power for decades; figuring out how to store that energy in a diminutive space has been challenging. Certain radioactive isotopes are volatile, toxic, difficult to shield, and unsuitable for use as part of a direct conversion power source.
But other isotopes are relatively benign and have the potential to power remote electronics for extensive periods of time. Using radioisotopes like tritium, scientists and engineers have begun creating practical nuclear batteries for powering low-energy devices.
An atomic battery, nuclear battery, radioisotope battery or radioisotope generator is a device which uses energy from the decay of a radioactive isotope to generate electricity. Like nuclear reactors, they generate electricity from nuclear energy, but differ in that they do not use a chain reaction. Although commonly called batteries, they are technically not electrochemical and cannot be charged or recharged. They are very costly, but have an extremely long life and high energy density - about 104 times higher than a chemical battery -, and so they are typically used as power sources for equipment that must operate unattended for long periods of time, such as spacecraft, pacemakers, underwater systems and automated scientific stations in remote parts of the world.
On the other hand, a nuclear battery has a very low power density compared to other types of batteries. Power density is the rate that it can output the power for a given size. As a result, a nuclear battery cannot compete with a fuel cell or a chemical battery for applications that require high power output. Therefore, the goal of the nuclear battery design is not to replace the chemical battery but to aid chemical batteries such as hybrid batteries and find applications where chemical batteries are not feasible. Thus, the targeted applications for a nuclear battery are mainly miniaturized low power output applications that cannot be fulfilled by chemical batteries. Other advantages of nuclear batteries are their reliability and longevity. A nuclear battery can output power for decades to a hundred years.
Atomic Battery Applications
Atomic batteries are already being used in devices such as moon landers and satellites; they even help to power the Perseverance Mars rover! As research continues to develop effective ways to harness and contain radioactive decay, the potential uses for radioisotope power sources will increase dramatically including wireless sensors, low power electronics, oil well monitoring, and other exciting applications.
A Chinese startup has unveiled a new battery that it claims can generate electricity for 50 years with the need for charging or maintenance. Beijing-based Betavolt said its nuclear battery is the first in the world to realize the miniaturization of atomic energy.
The first battery the company plans to launch is the BV100 - 15mm by 15mm and 5 mm thick -, which can generate 100 microwatts, with a voltage of 3V. The company plans to launch a 1-watt battery in 2025.
The company's team of scientists developed a unique single-crystal diamond semiconductor that is just 10 microns thick, placing a 2-micron-thick nickel-63 sheet between two diamond semiconductor converters. The decay energy of the radioactive source is converted into an electrical current, forming an independent unit. Betavolt said its nuclear batteries are modular and can be composed of hundreds of independent unit modules, in series and parallel, so different sizes and capacities can be manufactured.
Betavolt says its atomic energy battery is "absolutely safe, has no external radiation, and is suitable for use in medical devices such as pacemakers, artificial hearts, and cochleas in the human body". It adds: "Atomic energy batteries are environmentally friendly. After the decay period, the nickel-63 isotope as the radioactive source turns into a stable isotope of copper, which is non-radioactive and does not pose any threat or pollution to the environment."
Conclusions and Recommendations for Success in Li-ion Battery Markets
The battery value chain is facing both significant opportunities and challenges due to its unprecedented growth. It is probably one of the most ambitious scaling and ESG transformations that this highly complex and global product value chain has seen. If mastered, however, the industry scale-up will potentially create over USD 400 billion in value-chain revenues by 2030, contribute to up to 18 million jobs along the entire value chain and around 70 GtCO2e avoided cumulative road transport emissions from 2021 to 2050.
Given the many customer segments that are available, the different business models that exist, and the impending technology shifts, it is important that we finish by reflecting upon what are the best tactics to ensure success in this market. Here are four actions that may contribute to a winning strategy:
In many respects, the current battery industry still acts as a linear value chain in which products are disposed of after use. Circularity, which focuses on reusing or recycling materials, or both, can reduce Green House Gases intensity while creating additional economic value.
There is strong belief that a resilient, sustainable, and circular global battery value chain is not only possible but also admirable to achieve sustainable inclusive growth.
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Interested in research, monitoring, and investigation of everything related to the Earth, the Earth’s atmosphere, and the links with the universe, the hourglass
4moNice
Battery solutions expert|Lithium-ion&LiFePO4 Battery sales|Empowering the Future of Sustainable Energy
6mo#RicardoMoreira Thank you for recognizing the contributions China made in the field of new energy over the years. I am continuously learning and researching energy storage batteries, and I hope to share the knowledge and practical experience I have gained with everyone to help others.
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6moWhat an electrifying topic Can't wait to explore more about the impactful world of Lithium-ion Batteries ⚡
Pioneering the Clean Energy Movement || Leading Willdan's Charge to Sustainable Energy || Learn more about sustainable energy solutions at Willdan.com || President, Willdan - Performance Engineering
6moSounds like an electrifying series indeed. How do you see these batteries shaping our sustainable future, Ricardo Moreira 李卡多?
Electronics Division Manager at Einhell
6moCongratulations Ricardo, the article presents a very good overview about the market and the different technologies available.