The crisis in the Red Sea has affected global air cargo! Cargo capacities in Dubai, Bangkok, and Colombo have reached their limits, causing prices to
Global air cargo tonnages have rebounded in the final full week of February following their normal Lunar New Year (LNY) dip, while key Asia-Europe sea-air hubs have continued to record a strong surge in tonnages, linked to the disruptions to container shipping in the Red Sea.
Air cargo market data provider, WorldAcD, said Asia-Europe sea-air hubs such as Dubai, Colombo, and Bangkok have in recent weeks experienced "exceptionally high" air cargo demand, as cargo owners whose supply chains have been disrupted by the attacks on container shipping in the Red Sea seek fast but affordable alternatives to deliver goods to Europe from Asia Pacific.
"Fresh analysis this week, based on the more than 450,000 weekly transactions covered by WorldACD's data, reveals that Dubai-Europe air cargo traffic in week 8 was at more than double (up 146%) its level this time last year, with average tonnages for the last two full weeks (weeks 7 and 8) up by 140%, year on year (YoY)," the report said.
WorldACD noted that although Colombo-Europe air cargo traffic has been on the rise since August 2023, after declining in the first half of last year, the increases have been significantly stronger since December (up 46%), rising by 60% in January and increasing further to around 80%, YoY, in the last three weeks.
Bangkok-Europe volumes have been up, YoY, by at least 40% during each of the first seven weeks of this year, although that eased to 15% in week 8, suggesting a possible moderating of demand on that lane.
"It remains to be seen to what extent the recent spikes in demand through these Asia-Europe sea-air hubs have been driven or boosted by LNY, which fell this year on February 10, and whether the continuing strong demand via Dubai and Colombo will be sustained into March. But that demand showed no signs of waning in week 8," the report said.
It noted that these strong volumes helped total worldwide air cargo tonnages to record a 9% week-on-week (WoW) rise in week 8 (February 19 to 25) after dropping, WoW, by 10% in each of the two previous weeks, although the rise in week 8 will be mainly the result of tonnages recovering following the usual drop during the LNY holiday week.It said that average worldwide rates eased upwards by around 2% in week 8 after dipping by around 8% in week 7.
Expanding the comparison period to two weeks reveals a complex picture, with demand affected by various factors, including LNY on February 10 and the annual surge in demand for flower shipments ahead of Valentine's Day on February 14, in addition to the effects of the Red Sea container shipping disruptions.
WorldACD said overall global tonnages in weeks 7 and 8 combined were down by 11% compared with the previous two weeks (2Wo2W), with big drops from origin regions Asia Pacific (down 24%) and ex-Central & South America (down 25%), reflecting those LNY and Valentine's Day factors.
It said that tonnages from Africa were down 8%, and ex-North America declined 1%, while origin region Europe recorded a 3% increase on a 2Wo2W basis — although the standout origin region was the Middle East & South Asia, which like last week, was the only origin region to show a significant rise (up 11%) in average tonnages (up 7%) and rates (up 13%).
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Average rates from all the other main origin regions were either flat, or with a small drop, while average prices ex-Asia Pacific sank by 11%.
Looking at the various big international air cargo corridors, the Middle East & South Asia to Europe was the only major intercontinental lane to show a significant rise in average prices at 19% — which WorldACD said is most likely a reflection of the surge in recent weeks of Asia Pacific to Europe traffic converted to sea-air.
Meanwhile, YoY comparisons show a 4% decrease in total worldwide tonnages for weeks 7 and 8, combined, compared with last year, driven downwards by an 11% drop ex-Asia Pacific and partially offset by a 27% increase ex-Middle East & South Asia.
WorldACD said price-wise, average yield rates of US$2.25 per kilo in week 8 are 18% below their levels this time last year, with rates ex-Europe and ex-North America down by 31% and 21%, respectively. Prices ex-Asia are down by 14%.
Nevertheless, average global rates remain significantly above pre-Covid levels (up 26% compared to February 2019).
The air cargo market data provider noted that overall worldwide air cargo capacity remains significantly up on last year's levels, or higher by 8%.