Crude Oil

On a macro basis: We have been in a corrective phase for the past six weeks against the move down from 5224.  I noted on 6/28 that the Heat violated it’s macro bearish pattern—which warns of multi-day/week short covering in general (we have seen 25.77 cents of this). I would note that the RB (Unleaded Gas) left a medium term bearish reversal above intact yesterday. On a shorter-term basis: I would be wary that areas of possible exhaustion for this move up from 4227 come in at 5121 and 5233-38. Decent trade above 4932 (-1 cent per/hour starting at 9:00am) will project this upward $1.00 minimum, $5.00 (+) maximum; but if we break above here decently and back below decently, look for decent profit taking to come in. Decent trade below 4861-60 will project this downward $1.20 minimum, $2.05 (+) maximum based off a ‘well formed’ formation; but if we break below here decently and back above decently, look for decent short covering to come in—likely back toward 5040 (+).