Day Update

Iranian diplomacy. Iran is searching for a diplomatic opening to quell regional tensions. Iran’s chief of staff said Tehran was ready to speak with Saudi Arabia to ease regional tensions, a sentiment echoed by Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, who said publicly that the government was prepared to hold talks. The government in Riyadh may be predisposed to talk, given its relationship with the U.S. and role in the region. However, the terms for bringing both sides to the table, what they may want, and what they can afford to negotiate remain unclear.

The opening follows escalating violence between Iran and the U.S. in Iraq, but the sectarian rivalries that fuel the feud between Iran and Saudi Arabia are decades old. Most recently, Pakistan offered to mediate talks after suspected Iranian rockets hit a Saudi oil facility in 2019, held meetings in October that went nowhere, and renewed its offer after Tehran went tit-for-tat this month. Bear in mind that any future talks will almost certainly require the U.S. to sign off.

Renewed fighting in Idlib. Last night, an estimated 450 militants attacked Syrian government forces on two fronts just outside Idlib, assaulting the city with caravans comprising pickup trucks, large-caliber machine guns, two tanks and three other vehicles.

The battle for Idlib is about much more than control of the city itself. Though the Assad regime has secured control over much of the central part of the country, control over Syria’s periphery remains in flux, with Turkish, Russian and U.S. forces (and their proxies) all vying to secure territory. Turkey has a strategic interest to acquire and maintain sole control over a buffer zone with Syria, and its forays into the Eastern Mediterranean bring its shaky cooperation with Russia into question; confrontations such as those in Idlib show how Ankara plans to manage its relationship with Moscow going forward.

How do you quarantine 19 million people? We’re starting to find out. The coronavirus outbreak that began in China has now infected at least 634 people in nearly a dozen countries, killing at least 17. Chinese authorities announced a slew of measures to put Wuhan, the central Chinese city that’s the epicenter of the outbreak, as well as at least three suburbs, on lockdown. In Wuhan, the announcement sparked a stampede as people sought to escape before public transport in and out of the city was shut down. Other Chinese cities are starting to hunker down as well. Macau, for example, canceled Lunar New Year celebrations and tightened screening at its infamous casinos. The challenge facing the Communist Party of China is immense, and it’s not just about public health. Inevitably, in these situations, the biggest political and economic effects come from public panic and panicked government responses, not the disease itself. And given Beijing’s spotty track record for managing these sorts of emergencies over the past decade, it’s walking on thin ice with a public that’s been promised responsive, effective governance in exchange for forfeiting civil liberties.