DoD -- and Navy -- Preparing for the Things to Come in our Neighborhood

CITATION: Jim Garamond, "DOD Integral to Western Hemisphere Combating Climate Change," DOD News, 16 March 2023.

To me, this is a most encouraging sign that the Pentagon is thinking ahead about a series of -- as I like to call them -- inevitabilities associated with climate change, the chief one being its stunning capacity to shift America's strategic perspective from its centuries-old east-west bias to a north-south focus, whether we want it or not.

A key point from a key player:

While the Western Hemisphere is a vast area with many different peoples, environments, cultures, resources and concerns, all have one overarching concern: climate change, Daniel P. Erikson, the Defense Department's point man for the region, said.

I would modify that statement slightly: in the US we have a cultural bias that says, when we want to see something similar, we look east to Europe, when, in truth, we should really look north and south. When we think of how climate change will force north-south integration -- lest the lower latitudes (which I dub Middle Earth in America's New Map) generate too much north-ward instability, the Western Hemisphere is surprisingly uniform relative to the greater complexity faced by the other two vertical slices (Europe+Africa, Asia). No matter how you slice it, there is less variability to manage in our neck of the woods.

This is a big theme in my book ("Throughline Six: The West is the Best"): the Western Hemisphere is supremely advantaged for what comes next -- as difficult and transformative as that will be.

Thus, it is great to see DoD and DoN prepping the strategic landscape in pro-active anticipation of this looming reality. This is what national security establishments are supposed to do.

The article highlights the work of both DASD Erikson and SECNAV Carlos Del Toro, in combination with US Southern Command and US Presidential Special Envoy John Kerry.

A key bit:

The Caribbean is the region in the hemisphere already fully feeling the effects of climate change. "These are small island states, that for the most part, deal with huge set of challenges that are posed by climate," Erikson said. 

And often, these nations do not have the resources, capacities or capabilities to deal with these challenges, he said. 

It is in these areas that DOD can help. "The requirement to have certain capabilities for humanitarian assistance and disaster response is really key in this region," Erikson said. 

Think about that future: does it strike you as one in which small states will do well on their own? Or does it seem more likely that small states, particularly those located in my Middle Earth (stretching 30 degrees north and south of the equator), will be highly incentivized to seek more north-south connectivity and belonging and membership so as to socialize the disproportionate climate-change risk they face in the decades ahead.

The EU chose to integrate eastward following the end of the Cold War not because it was economically advantageous or politically easy but because they saw it as a strategic hedge against future Russian revanchism and potential security threats arising within and across those nations.

THAT was strategic vision and true grand strategy: acting to shape a future.

The United States (and North America in general) face a similar reality vis-a-vis Latin America and the Caribbean: climate change will be brutal to these nations and we either lay the groundwork now for deeper and more expansive collaboration, networks, overarching structures, etc., or there won't be a wall tall enough to insulate us from the pain and tragedy and instabilities and threats to come.

So yeah, bring on the tabletops and a whole lot more. The USG and Pentagon can do their part, but the private sector will be a far larger player, which is why ESG is no joke but a strategic imperative. We all want to make money and live well in the future and it can be done -- despite what climate change will force upon us. Ditto for a strong America that continues to shape our world for the better.

We just need to be clear-eyed and opportunistic and bold in our thinking, words, and actions.