The Economic Dashboard

This week’s Business Pulse introduces a key tool from the World Business Chicago (WBC) Research Center: the Economic Dashboard. Updated monthly, the Dashboard provides a snapshot of Chicago's and the region's performance compared to peer metro areas, aiding in the analysis of both economic and industry trends. Explore how this tool can help you and your business navigate economic opportunities and challenges.

A Comprehensive Tool for Economic Analysis

The WBC Research Center’s Economic Dashboard offers a detailed examination of factors shaping the business environment. Metrics include employment figures, unemployment rates, job postings, industry growth, and trade values.

By analyzing these data points, the Dashboard identifies patterns, correlations, and potential areas of concern, offering a well-rounded view of economic dynamics. This comprehensive tool is invaluable for stakeholders seeking to understand the current economic landscape and make informed decisions.

• Companies can use the Dashboard to make informed decisions on expansions, relocations, and investments.
• Policymakers can develop strategies to address economic challenges, support business growth, and reduce unemployment, especially in underinvested areas.
• Researchers and analysts gain insights into economic patterns and can forecast future trends.
• Job seekers can identify high-demand industries and areas with the most job opportunities.
• Investors can assess the economic climate and pinpoint potential investment areas in startups and other ventures.

Delving into Chicago's Latest Economic Trends

Employment Figures: A Decline

In May 2024, the employment landscape in the Chicago metro area experienced a slight downturn. Employment dropped from 4,755,614 in April to 4,726,180 in May, a 0.6% decrease. Concurrently, the unemployment rate rose from 4.4% to 4.8%.

Following the Economic Dashboard release, the Bureau of Labor Statistics published June employment statistics. June saw significant changes: the labor force expanded to 5,018,938, the largest since pre-COVID months. However, employment fell sharply to 4,708,872, and the number of unemployed surged to 310,066, pushing the unemployment rate to 6.2%. This rise in unemployment could be due to the influx of new graduates and job seekers entering the market, combined with the time required for them to secure employment.

Job Postings: An Unexpected Uptick

Despite the dip in employment figures, June saw a 2.6% increase in job postings, with 5,030 more listings than the previous month. This rise in job postings, amidst increasing unemployment, paints a complex picture of the local job market.

County and City-Level Insights

Zooming in from the metro area to county and city levels, similar trends emerge. Most counties experienced a decline in employment, with Kane and Lake counties as the exceptions. The unemployment rate rose across all counties and the city, reversing the previous month's upward trend in employment figures.

Industry Employment Metrics: A Silver Lining

Despite broader employment challenges, all industries tracked in the Employment Dashboard are projected to show positive growth for Q2 2024, including manufacturing. Notably, Chicago is expected to lead with the most significant employment growth between Q1 and Q2 2024.

Survey Barometers: Mixed Signals

Chicago Business Barometer: A Positive Turn

In a promising development, the Chicago Business Barometer, produced in collaboration with MNI, surged by 12 points to 47.4 in June. This marks the first increase after six consecutive months of decline, the highest reading since November 2023, and the largest monthly jump since September 2020. This positive shift signals a potential rebound in key sectors.

Chicago Fed Survey of Economic Conditions: Continued Caution

Conversely, the Chicago Fed Survey of Economic Conditions (CFSEC) Activity Index rose to -12 in July from -24 in June. Despite this improvement, the index remains in negative territory, indicating that economic growth continues to lag behind the trend.

Conclusion

May 2024 presented a mixed economic picture for the Chicago metro area. While employment figures declined, the rise in job postings and positive industry employment projections offer a beacon of hope. The significant increase in the Chicago Business Barometer adds to the optimism, suggesting potential future improvements despite the cautious outlook from the CFSEC Activity Index. The coming months will be pivotal in determining if these mixed signals will converge into a more definitive economic trend.

We encourage you to share this update with your CFOs and colleagues. We invite your questions, insights, and suggestions.

Connect with the WBC Research Team on LinkedIn:

Robin Ficke , Hannah Loftus , Wendy W., Himashi Jayasundera , Justine Ingram , Alexandra Oleksiuk Nowak