Era of Gain or Pain by Odiawa Ai

A year into President Bola Tinubu’s administration, the irresistible optimism of liberty, economic advancement, security, and well-being announcing his inauguration on May 29, 2023, has turned to dying embers. In the President’s first year, all Nigerians see is despair, misery, privations, and agony. The hopelessness is clear in the numbers: the cost-of-living crises, excessive inflation, joblessness, and naira depreciation. In the midst of the contemptuous backslapping in government circles, neediness, and bloodshed is heightening. Tinubu ought to backtrack his steps in the remaining years of his tenure to pass on a redoubtable legacy to the nation.

Under Tinubu, Nigeria is a brutal contrast to Abraham Lincoln’s “Democracy is the government of the people, by the people, for the people.” Instead, just a little band of politicians, their families, and puppets are chuckling the whole way to the bank. From his “subsidy is gone” declaration on Inauguration Day, which eliminated petrol subsidies, constant difficulty has defined his administration.

From N187 per litre pre-Tinubu, petrol now sells between N568/l and N800/l. Without all around executed safety nets, most citizens have found it hard to adapt to the cosmic ascent in transportation and food costs. This has increased destitution. It stood at 46 per cent in 2023 or 104 million citizens, as indicated by the World Bank.

Two different policies have joined to bankrupt citizens. The first is the amalgamation of the naira rates through floatation. The second is the wiping out of subsidies for Band A electricity consumers in April. Consequently, the naira has devalued significantly. It traded at N464 per $1 in May 2023, plunged to N1,900/$1 early in 2024 before trading at around N1,400/$1 presently in spite of a pile of counterfeit policies to back its worth. By February, it had lost 68 per cent of its worth.

The impact goes past Nigeria. Formerly recognized as Africa’s biggest economy, Nigeria has surrendered the top three continental slots to South Africa, Egypt, and Algeria respectively. It is currently fourth in Africa with a GDP of $252.73 billion on the back of currency deterioration.

From N68 per kilowatt-hour, the levy for the Band A segment jumped to N225/kWh before falling to N206.80/kWh in May.

On the financial policy side, the Central Bank of Nigeria has lifted the benchmark interest rate from 18.50 per cent in May 2023 to 26.25 per cent, after three successive jumps in 2024.

All this has spiked up costs, however the Tinubu government is yet to execute a wage review. He met the national minimum wage of N30,000 per month. Businesses are whining about the inflated costs of borrowing funds.

In April, inflation spiked to a 28-year high of 33.69 per cent. Food inflation worsened to 40.63 per cent. Imports are valued steeply on account of the depreciation of the naira. This is pulverizing to regular living. Health care is far away from citizens.

Tinubu, who has satisfied his lifelong aspiration to govern Nigeria, assumed office during the financial slump. In any case, there was hope at first of a recovery following a generally fruitful eight-year tenure in Lagos State (1999-2007). Truth be told, that good faith is blowing in the wind.

Under him, governance is not much different from the preceding era of locusts supervised by the clueless Muhammadu Buhari (2015-2023). Kidnappings and assassinations are an epidemic. This is suggestive of the Biafra Civil War (1967-1970).

While 63,111 died in savagery on Buhari’s watch, 6,931 were maimed in Tinubu’s first 10 months. Beacon Security and Intelligence counted 2,583 assassinations in the first quarter under the Tinubu administration. SBM Intelligence reported 4,777 kidnappings when Tinubu assumed office to early May 2023. The most awful hit states are Plateau, Benue, Kaduna, Niger, Zamfara, Kogi, Katsina and Borno.

Beyond regular meetings with the security chiefs, Tinubu appears to have no technique for putting the viciousness in check. His absence of a plan is found in the frenzy by bandits, Islamic terrorists, Fulani herder assaults on farmers, and kidnappings the nation over. Like Buhari, Tinubu ensconces himself in the Aso Rock fort without relating to the survivors the victims of brutality by visiting the scene of the crime. He ought to show more empathy.

Without a doubt, state capture has not receded in the past year. It is the same old thig for the savage political class. Take the National Assembly. To undertake constituency projects, a cesspool of scum, ranking senators directly got between N200 million and N500 million in their accounts. This is wasteful, a shameless extortion of the commonwealth. Peculiarly, Tinubu cheered the lawmakers, saying “your integrity is intact!” It is not; it is state catch.

Nigeria still experiences colossal power outage under Tinubu. The only good aspect is installed capacity, which hit 14,000 megawatts in 2023. It has not affected supply: the sole national grid frequently collapses whenever fed more than 4,000MW.

Truely, Tinubu inherited a hollow economy with a debt stock of N87 trillion. The infrastructure is pitiful, needing $150 billion annually every three decades to bridge, per the World Bank. Social services, especially education and health, are in a ruins.

Undeniably, it is not all terrible news. Aside from quickly delivering the rehabilitation of the Third Mainland Bridge, and the Apapa-Oshodi Expressway in Lagos, the 700-kilometre Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway at N15 trillion over seven years is ambitious. Deserted since conception in 1978, the Tinubu administration is starting work on the 1,000km Badagry-Sokoto Highway. This is in addition to the 330 federal roads and bridges the President virtually commissioned on Sunday. Combined, these projects are expected to begin an era of infrastructural reestablishment. Tinubu ought to guarantee that none of them is deserted.

The economy is experiencing difficulty partly because of the importation of oil-based commodities. This reportedly swallows between 30 and 40 per cent of forex, placing gigantic pressure on the naira. With the Dangote Refinery set to start the production of petrol, the economy is set for a lift. The positive impact of the Dangote Refinery is now being felt in the price of diesel.

As he sets out on the second year of his four-year tenure, Tinubu ought to govern with more sympathy. He ought to cut back on his travels and show up for Nigerians in times of good and bad.

The President’s private sector background ought to hasten the speed of monetary development to recover its rightful place on the continent.

Shockingly, he has not set out on privatization. Tinubu ought to privatize the refineries, the airports, seaports, the Ajaokuta Steel Company, and the railways. This will save the government on running expenses and boost foreign direct investment.

The President ought to zero in on security. Without this, farming and business will keep on becoming discouraging. There is a developing pattern of brutality among the security agencies. They are kidnapping journalists without any potential repercussions. This is contrary to the rule of law. Nigeria is as of now, not under a military regime so Tinubu ought to rein in their excesses.

His cabinet is swollen. He ought to have a compact team of performers to bring down the cost of governance.

Tinubu is toeing the way of his predecessors on restructuring. This is ridiculous. It is living in fantasy land to accept that Nigeria will make progress without restructuring.

The President ought to focus on restructuring. It will unleash Nigeria’s productive capacity, rebuild trust in governance, further develop security, and de-heighten inter-ethnic tensions.