EU(TOP)-NOTCH ELECTION INSIDER

Six more EU Member States nominate their Commission candidates

The 27 Member States must nominate their candidates for the next EU Commission by 30.08.2024 at the latest - this is the deadline set by the re-elected Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Five Member States have not yet submitted any proposals (Belgium, Bulgaria, Denmark, Italy and Portugal, as of 23.08.2024). Six more candidates were added last week.

Poland: Prime Minister Donald Tusk has proposed his close confidant Piotr Serafin as the next EU Commissioner. Serafin has been Poland's Permanent Representative to the European Union since December 2023 and was Tusk's Head of Cabinet from 2014 to 2019 during his term as President of the European Council. He is to replace Janusz Wojciechowski, currently Commissioner for Agriculture. According to the Polish government, Serafin could be given a budget portfolio, as the position of the temporarily favoured Defence Commissioner appears less attractive in view of the limited budget. Residual risk of the nomination: President Andrzej Duda - who is close to the Polish opposition - could insist on co-deciding on Tusk's candidate.

Croatia: Dubravka Šuica, currently Vice-President of the EU Commission, has been re-nominated. Šuica has been Commissioner for Democracy and Demography since 2019.

During her previous term of office, the former mayor of Dubrovnik was particularly committed to defending democracy in Europe against disinformation campaigns from third countries. She also called for a comprehensive EU response to the rapidly advancing demographic change - for example, the promotion of longer working lives and healthy ageing.

Luxembourg: Prime Minister Luc Frieden has proposed Christophe Hansen (both CSV, EPP) as Luxembourg's candidate for the European Commission. Hansen was an MEP from 2019 to 2023 and was re-elected in the European elections in June 2024. Prime Minister Frieden emphasised his many years of experience in European affairs as one of the main reasons for Hansen's election. However, the decision also means that the socialist Nicolas Schmit will have to vacate his post as EU Commissioner for Employment, although he had hoped to continue his term of office.

Cyprus: President Nikos Christodoulides has nominated former Agriculture Minister Costas Kadis. Kadis has served in several Cypriot governments and was most recently Minister of Agriculture, Rural Development and Environment from 2018 to 2023 (under former President Nikos Anastasiades). He is a biologist specialising in biodiversity and sustainable development and currently works as Dean of the Faculty of Health Sciences at Frederick University in Cyprus. Kadis would replace Stella Kyriakides, who has been Health Commissioner for the past five years.

Romania: Following a meeting with Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Romanian Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu announced in Brussels on 22.08.2024 that he had proposed Victor Negrescu, the recently elected Vice-President of the European Parliament, for the post of EU Commissioner. Like other EU heads of state and government (e.g. Italy and Czechia), Ciolacu has stated that Negrescu should have an economic policy portfolio. The decision is to be finalised on 26.08.2024 after a final debate with the other two parties in the governing coalition.

Lithuania: The government has proposed former Prime Minister and current MEP Andrius Kubilius as the next EU Commissioner. Due to the complex Lithuanian nomination procedure, the government, parliament and president must agree on a candidate. Head of government Ingrida Šimonytė has already received the approval of President Gitanas Nausėda. Now it is the turn of the Lithuanian parliament (‘Seimas’) to give the green light. Candidate Kubilius would have to give up his seat in the European Parliament in the event of final confirmation. He has a tough stance towards Russia and is in favour of supporting Ukraine. Kubilius' rival, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis, withdrew after President Gitanas Nausėda did not support his candidature.

Italy: Head of government Giorgia Meloni has not yet named a candidate - but her party colleague and European Affairs Minister Raffaele Fitto is considered the favourite, with one caveat: if Meloni decides to fulfil Ursula von der Leyen's wish for more female Commission candidates, Elisabetta Belloni would probably be her first choice. Belloni has been at the head of the Italian secret service since 2021 and is said to get on very well with the Prime Minister. Meloni wants to announce her decision by the next meeting of the Council of Ministers (on 27. or 28.08.2024).

Battle for the chairmanship of the ECR parliamentary group: Morawiecki wants to replace Meloni

A power struggle for the leadership position has broken out in the right-wing conservative Group of European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR): Former Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki (PiS) wants to become the new leader of the fourth-largest group in the European Parliament - until now, Italian head of government Giorgia Meloni has been the ECR's number one. Her party ‘Fratelli d'Italia’ is the largest delegation within the group, while the Polish PiS party is the second largest. According to reports in the Polish media, negotiations are already underway regarding a change of leadership at the top of the ECR. If Morawiecki becomes the new ECR chairman, this would make cooperation with the right-wing ‘Patriots for Europe’ group, co-founded by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán among others, more difficult: Morawiecki and Orbán have held opposing political views since the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine.

MEMBER STATES IN THE SPOTLIGHT

France: forming a new government remains difficult

President Emmanuel Macron will meet the leaders of the parties represented in parliament on 23.08.2024 and 26.08.2024. The aim is to find a suitable candidate for the office of prime minister and thus enable a stable government. None of the three strongest political parties won a majority in the French parliamentary elections. The left-wing alliance (Nouveau Front Populaire; NFP) won the election, ahead of Marine le Pen's right-wing Rassemblement National (RN) and the presidential party Renaissance (Renew). Lucie Castets, the prime minister proposed by the left-wing alliance, presented her core political goals in a letter to the members of the National Assembly - including, in particular, the abolition of the pension reform pushed through by President Macron. In his letter on the ‘Action Pact for the French’, acting Prime Minister Gabriel Attal listed the political priorities of the Renaissance presidential party, such as balancing public finances and strengthening purchasing power, security and public welfare. The presidential party continues to rule out any co-operation with the Left Alliance and the Rassemblement National (RN, ID). Prior to the meeting with Macron, the RN expressed its willingness to vote in favour of the other parties' projects if they served “the general interest”. Time is running out for President Macron: the Council of State and the Supreme Audit Office are due to approve the 2025 national budget in mid-September and it must be submitted to parliament by the beginning of October 2024. The EU is also demanding a proposal from France by 20 September 2024 on how to reduce the national deficit and cut new debt.