Excited about the prospect of electric power to replace fossil fuels? Then it’s time to get excited about minerals.

Where were you on August 14, 2003? 20 years ago, 50 million people in the eastern United States and Ontario, Canada, went without electricity – some for up to four days – because three power lines had sagged into overgrown tree branches, shorted out and sparked the largest blackout in North America's history. More recently, Texas went dark after a massive ice storm hit in February 2021, and California implemented rolling blackouts in August 2021 as electricity demand outstripped supply. 

I know people who twitch at the thought of going without their phones for a few hours, let alone lighting, appliances, heat or air conditioning. Imagine a hospital going without power for any length of time – or in the case of Texas, 4.5 million homes without heat in a massive winter storm for several days. While a blackout can be inconvenient on an individual level, it can mean life or death in communities. 

It’s why I’m particularly concerned about the state of the U.S. electrical grid. “An extensive, reliable power grid has fueled America’s growth since the early 1900s,” says the U.S. Department of Energy, “however, the grid of today does not have the attributes necessary to meet the demands of the 21st century and beyond.” 70 percent of transmission lines are over 25 years old and approaching the end of their typical 50–80-year lifecycle. In 2021, electricity users experienced an average of 7+ hours of power outages, compared to just three in 2013. And the wildfires in California and the Texas blackouts during the 2021 ice storm showcase the fragility and limitations of the current grid system.

It’s a formidable challenge. In October, President Biden announced a $1.3 billion investment to build three new interstate power lines in an effort to upgrade the power grid and transition it to clean energy. These upgrades will connect the power grid to renewable energy sources like solar and wind power, and support mandates to move away from fossil fuels and towards electric vehicles. 

More minerals, not less.

Here’s the thing – we all know there’s a shift to electrification over fossil fuels. What most people don’t realize is we’re going to need a LOT – or, as the Wall Street Journal put it, “enormous quantities” – of metal. To reach the climate lobby’s net-zero emissions goal, the International Energy Agency reported that 49.7 million miles of transmission lines would need to be built or replaced by 2040.

Regardless of the energy source, we’re going to need a bigger boat…ahem, grid. And those millions of miles of transmission lines will require copper and aluminum. Steel for transformers. Not to mention lithium-ion, vanadium and even iron-based batteries for grid power storage. 

Where are these metals going to come from? We need more mining. And with both copper and aluminum supply expected to fall short of demand over the next few years, we’re going to need more mines. And that’s where exploration companies come in. 

We’re looking for a ruby…ahem, copper and aluminum…in a mountain of rocks

Exploration’s not for the faint-hearted. We’re searching for needles in haystacks – searching for signs of mineral deposits – and, when we’re successful in finding them, validating their limit and  grade before a mine can be developed and begin producing. 

It’s not quick, and it’s not easy. S&P Global reports that the average lead time from discovery to production is 15.7 years. “Unlike other industries, metallic mines are notorious for their long development periods, sometimes taking several decades to proceed from discovery to production,” says author Paul Manalo.

“The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago. The second best time is now.” - Chinese proverb

2040 is 17 years away. The average lead time from the discovery of a mine is 15.7 years – and you have to complete the searching before it’s discovered. Good thing we’re not faint-hearted!

We have big ambitions. We have an electric grid in desperate need. We need more adventurers and explorers to help us find the necessary minerals to achieve our goals. We need more investors to help fund exploration to find the metals we will so desperately need.

We’re up for the challenge – are you? The future will be here before you know it!

At Pelangio, we’re committed to the future. If you’d like to have a conversation about how we tackle this challenge, send me a DM. Let’s talk!