Fighting Climate change is a marathon, decarbonizing electricity is the first km

We use energy for everything in our lives, every day. But the ways in which we procure it, produce it, deliver it and use it have a huge impact in our planet.

Shifting our energy paradigm and transforming our energy systems are a crucial first step in the fight against climate change, but do we understand why? And most importantly, do we know how? 

Due to the pervasive nature of energy, it intersects the transformations of almost every other sector of the economy and therefore it is changing ahead, faster and is leading many transformations. Looking at what is going on there allows us to fast forward and understand better why many of the choices we make today are critically important for our collective future. That’s why decarbonizing electricity is just the first km (or mile if you prefer) in this long marathon…

This article follows a survey  on my LinkedIn profile and is part of a series dedicated to share learnings from attending the Climate Change and Energy Executive Education course on March 2021.  The first topic is precisely around the relationship between energy and climate change, are you ready? If you want to skip directly to energy related considerations browse downwards, but some basic notions about climate change are presented to give proper context to the discussion. Fotos in this article are from ClimateVisuals, a highly recommended project for climate communicators.

What is climate change and why it happens?

The physical basis of the climate equilibrium of the earth is determined by the amount of solar radiation coming into the earth, by means of visible sunbeams, and the amount of terrestrial radiation going out, in the form of invisible infrared.

Therefore, an increase in the earth’s temperature takes place when the amount of radiation coming in is superior to the one going out. And this is precisely where greenhouse gases (GHG) come in. They act as the layer that traps outgoing infrared radiation, thus creating a positive radiative forcing. This is associated with higher temperatures, higher concentration of water vapor in the atmosphere that produces, for example, droughts in some places and heavy downpours in other areas.

Several other GHG exist but their effect is usually leveled in terms of CO2 equivalent to simplify the explanation. Among those, the role of Methane (CH4) is becoming crucial adding some uncertainties to the real evolution of the greenhouse effect. The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is measured in PPM (parts per million) and this number alone determines much of our ability to live in our planet.

Several other GHG exist but their effect is usually leveled in terms of CO2 equivalent to simplify the explanation. Among those, the role of Methane (CH4) is becoming crucial adding some uncertainties to the real evolution of the greenhouse effect.  

Why is fighting climate change like a marathon?

Everything about fighting climate change takes place in long timescales, just like when you run a marathon as opposed to running a short distance. First we have to note that CO2  is  a stock problem meaning that what matters is how much of it we add to what is already present in the atmosphere. Out of all the CO2 we have historically emitted into the atmosphere since mankind as we know it exists in this planet, only a fraction is captured by nature or by the sea. More than 60% of CO2 remains in the atmosphere and piles up, adding to a global cumulative stock of emissions.

Secondly, the dangerous accumulation man-made CO2  to a level that risks the equilibrium of the plant dates back to the last century and half but has been accelerated in the last 20/30 years. But these emissions are creating a long tail effect of transformation as more than half will remain unchanged for as much as 1000 years, and one third will still be around in the atmosphere 20 thousand years from now.

CO2 emissions are creating a long tail effect of transformation as more than half will remain unchanged for as much as 1000 years, and one third will still be around in the atmosphere 20 thousand years from now.

The other characteristic of the CO2 problem is that no matter where we emit it, the consequences will be global not local. Conversely, the costs of mitigating emissions are local whereas the benefits are largely unconnected to the local level.

What can we do to fight climate change?

So the first thing we need to understand is that we need to get to net-zero CO2  emissions, fast and urgently. But that won’t solve the problem, it will only prevent it from getting worse and worse. This is the hard truth that many haven’t yet realized. Getting us to net zero alone won’t solve the problem, we will need to go beyond it as we will see in a moment.

But the short-term pathway ahead of us is extremely simple: Use what we have, to decarbonize as fast as we can. Of course, getting to Net Zero here should be understood as real push for zeroing of emissions of all activities, leveraging proven and available or close to maturity solutions. It absolutely mustn’t be a way to spin a model of business as usual + compensation because there is no more time.

In the long term, we will have space for deploying ambitious innovations and we will need them. Carbon removal from the atmosphere, geo-engineering, and other solutions will absolutely need to come into play because of the timescales involved.

So, where do we start to fight CO2 emissions?

The energy sector is usually associated with climate change, and rightly so. According to the @IEA, the combustion of oil, coal and natural gas and their use in producing electricity, industrial processes, or transport were accountable for 36.3 gigatones of emissions in 2021.

In terms of economic sectors, according to the IPCC, energy supply is responsible for 29% of emissions, followed by transport (19%), industry (19%) and Residential and commercial buildings and agriculture (roughly 12%) which are the most relevant ones. This is why the low carbon transition in the energy sector is so important. But what perhaps is less known is how much the energy sector is leading the global decarbonization effort, particularly driven by the growth of renewables in electricity generation and by the conversion of end uses to maximize the use of decarbonized electricity.

In many parts of the industrial system such as steel, cement, plastics and in many parts of the transportation system such as heavy road transport, aviation or shipping, this transition is only getting started. Other sub parts of these systems such as light duty road transport, buildings and commercial sectors are however beginning their transition enabled by decarbonized power, available technologies and reliable power systems.

 energy sector is leading the global decarbonization effort, particularly driven by the growth of renewables in electricity generation and by the conversion of end uses to maximize the use of decarbonized electricity.

Why is the energy sector the low hanging fruit of decarbonization?

The importance of energy sector for decarbonization is twofold:

Directly - Up until a few years, the most effective thing we could do to decarbonize was to replace fossil fuels used for power generation by renewables. That was the focus of the last decade: scaling up renewables, lowering the costs, improving the reliability, innovating for efficiency. But today we are in a new era of decarbonization.

The game changer in the direct decarbonization of the power sector is coming from the latest developments of commercially competitive (i.e. unsubsidized) and dispatchable renewables (such as for example pumped hydro, geothermal, hybrid PV + Wind + storage) combined with smart grid enabled solutions (consumer generated renewables, residential storage, demand response, etc).

Indirectly - The abundance of renewable electricity produced at local level where the specific natural resources are available, combined with robust power distribution infrastructure is making green power widely available. Green electrons can today enter the grid through the distribution networks and be carried to wherever they are needed. This is causing a major transformation of power grids and enabling also customers to play a major role. Enel for example has announced last year the milestone of one million prosumers connected to its grids, representing 57GW of installed capacity which is roughly the equivalent of a super-major renewable player .

On the other hand, this combination of green powered grids with digitally empowered and active consumers is also opening new decarbonization opportunities. The power sector transformation is now moving into the deep electrification of wider sectors of the economy that can decarbonize faster, capturing economies of scale and with reliable and smart solutions. Think about transportation, residential and commercial buildings, industrial processes, agri-business, etc. So the buzzwords of e-mobility, low carbon buildings, green-industries, etc are also part of this critical phase. Another emerging field in customer participation is grid flexibility solutions. As smart grids combine with distributed energy resources and new players such as aggregators, energy communities or mini grid operators can actually monetize their assets participating in balancing the grid at local level.

What are the open points?

The trilema of the power sector today is how to ensure affordable, clean and secure energy to countries, as GDP becomes less energy intensive but at the same time people’s lives become more dependent on electricity.  

In this context, Nuclear that had been an ally due to the reliable output of emissions-free power that compensated the variability of renewables, has been virtually overcome due to its environmental externalities and the technical and economic challenges surrounding nearly every new development of this technology in the world. In a moment where more than half of the French nuclear fleet is offline due to reliability problems, and that more questions emerge as regard to the nuclear fuel security of supply following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, this technology seems at a stall. New reactor technology shouldn’t come into play anytime soon, making this an option that we can add to our mix only further down the line.

Depending on the point of view, many people still argue that natural gas should be the alternative to reliable baseload power generation (replacing aging and more polluting coal plants, particularly in emerging countries) but economic and environmental cost-benefit analysis suggests otherwise. In addition, in the current context of rising natural gas prices, of geopolitical instability of supply as shown by Russia to all Europeans,    

For all those uses where electrification is not possible or non-affordable, there are alternatives such as hydrogen which should however be carefully analyzed, while prioritizing the green origin. Long-haul containerships, bulk carriers and cruising ships for example could take advantage of hydrogen for example with fuel cells for electric engines.

Energy efficiency is a big part as well. As Energy conservation and energy productivity are a critical solution in our portfolio for low carbon emissions world.

But it is electricity that holds the key to our new energy paradigm, one in which abundant renewable power, generated at large scale but also locally by empowered citizens, is delivered by sustainable and reliable power grids that allow us to electrify our end uses. But this is easier said than done as today we still lack many technologies to electrify industrial processes, many policies that adequately price the real environmental costs of fossil fuels, more commitment by citizens to make more aware choices, politics that really care about making the transition just for all, and companies that embrace authentic transformation instead of greenwashing.... However these are topics for another article... or for your comments below !

Image credits: Vladislav Lepoev / Climate Visuals Countdown, Aji Styawan / Getty Images Climate Visuals Grant recipient, Raunaq Chopra / Climate Visuals Countdown, Avijit Ghosh / Climate Visuals Countdown, Ashden / Ashden, Felicia Rule / Climate Visuals Countdown