French Election 2024 - Results and Possible Next Steps

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The second round of the surprise legislative elections, called by Macron on the day of the European parliament election at the start of June, took place on Sunday the 7th of July.

Despite predictions that the far-right National Rally (RN) would secure the most seats, it was the left-wing electoral alliance New Popular Front (NFP) who secured the most seats, gaining 182 of the 577 seats in the National Assembly.

RN came only third in terms of seats won, winning 143, despite securing close to 30 per cent of the popular vote.

Macron’s centrist Ensemble coalition, which many predicted would collapse entirely, secured 168 seats.

The fragmented nature of Assembly means that a minority government would not survive, leaving the country at risk of political gridlock.

Coalition negotiations are likely to take place between the parties in NFP and Ensemble to form a government. A new election can be called no earlier than July 2025.

Macron’s decision to ask Gabriel Attal to stay as Prime Minister in a caretaker role over the transition period suggests that negotiations could take some time. Possible options include a centre-left or a centre-right government, both featuring Ensemble. 

Overview of the Vote and Key Takeaways

Despite polls predicting that the National Rally would secure the largest number of seats in country’s National Assembly, the left-wing New Popular Front, an alliance of all major parties on the left of the political spectrum, claimed an unexpected victory.

They won 180 seats, with Macron’s Ensemble coalition coming second with 168 seats. RN came only third, despite collecting a third of the votes in the first round, just a week earlier, securing 143 seats.

The Republicains, who suffered an internal split when former leader Eric Ciotti announced an alliance with RN, secured 46 seats, enough to be a legitimate, independent presence in the Assembly.

The political landscape of the National Assembly is now much more fragmented than it was before the election: where in 2022 Ensemble secured 250 seats, just 39 seats short of the 289 MPs needed to form a majority, today no single party is within 100 seats of 289, meaning that another minority government is unlikely to be successful. This is a first in the history of the 5th Republic, which was designed to produce strong majorities and avoid political gridlock.

Cohabitation (where the President and Prime Minister come from different parties) has occurred three times before (1986-1988, 1993-1995, 1997-2002), but the Prime Minister has always benefited from a majority in parliament. The current parliament makeup, with three distinct yet homogenous (in number) blocs all lacking a majority, is unprecedented in how divided it is.

Within NFP, the political dynamics have shifted towards the centre. With 75 MPs, La France Insoumise (LFI) are still the largest group in the bloc, but will lose seats compared to 2022 (they currently have 75, just like in 2022, but dissidents will defect to other left-wing parties or sit as independents). At the same time, both the Socialist Party (65 seats) and the Greens (33) have made gains, which will shift the balance of power away from the hard-left.

Turnout, which was the highest in 27 years in the first round, remained high in the second round. 66.63 per cent of people cast a ballot, less than 0.1 per cent lower than in the first round. The high turnout, particularly in the second round where tactical voting (non-RN voters voting for whoever had the best chance of defeating the RN candidate in order to stop them winning their seat) played a huge role, likely contributed to RN’s poor performance relative to expectation.  

The major takeaway from the second round is undoubtedly the fact that the mobilisation against the prospect of a National Rally led government was successful. All parties to the left of RN had called for their supporters to vote against RN candidates where applicable, and it is clear that the message was successful, highlighted by the high turnout in the second round.

Based on the results and the final seat allocation, it seems clear that Macron’s gamble in calling elections immediately after a huge victory for the far-right paid off. His party, Renaissance are currently the single largest party in parliament, and his centrist Ensemble coalition is the second political force, ahead of RN. While Ensemble lost seats compared to 2022, the fact that they only had a relative majority meant that they already struggled to pass legislation. This result should force a recalibration of the French political scene.

However, Macron’s decision could also result in a re-calibration of the centrist bloc. Several Renaissance MPs on both the left (Sasha Houlié) and right (Gerald Darmanin, Interior Minister) of the party were frustrated by Macron’s decision to dissolve the Assembly. This may lead to them leaving Renaissance to forge new alliances, while still staying in the centrist movement that Ensemble represents. While it should not weaken the centre’s position, it further dilutes Macron’s influence in parliament.

It is important to note that while RN lost out, they still got close to 10 million votes, collecting 29.26 per cent of all votes cast. This is explained by the party having the most candidates involved in the second round owing to their strong first round showing. Any potential future government will need to take these voters views and concerns into account.

While 2022 saw the emergence of three electoral blocs in the Assembly, 2024 saw them reinforced, with all three now similar in size. This makes the possibility of a minority government much less likely than it was in 2022, and means that negotiations are likely to take place between parties with the aim of forming a majority. As the election winners, NFP should be given the first opportunity to form a government, but this will not result in a majority, and no direct route to governing without one, meaning that more talks will take place.

Next Government 

Coalition negotiations with the centrist bloc is likely to result in the fracturing of the New Popular Front. The shift in dynamics towards the centre means that the Socialist Party now holds the cards, due in part to their strong performance in the European Parliament election in June, at the expense of the hard-left LFI. 

The result of this change to the balance of power could mean that Ensemble, the Greens, Socialists, as well as independent centrists and left-wing MPs could now form a very narrow majority, which could be strengthened by the addition of the 46 Republicains who won seats (although this is unlikely).

One other possibility is a centre-right government, with Ensemble and the Republicains forming a minority government alongside independent centrists and right-wing MPs. This would only result in 236 seats, but could be supported by RN in exchange for concessions, in a similar way to other European countries. The possibility of a centre-right government has gathered pace in recent days after Gerald Darmanin, Macron’s Interior Minister since 2020, saying that he would not work with the Greens and Socialists. Former Republicans leader Laurent Wauquiez announced that his party would not join any coalition, but at this stage the prospect should not be excluded.

It is currently unclear who the next Prime Minister will be but given that Emmanuel Macron has asked Gabriel Attal to stay in Matignon (the Prime Minister’s residence), his successor is not expected to be announced soon. This points to drawn out negotiations between parties around forming a government.

The importance of these talks is paramount: Should negotiations fail, France will find itself in political gridlock, which will undoubtedly benefit RN, who will be excluded from coalition talks and the next government.

Policy Implications

From a policy perspective, depending on who forms the next government France could deviate from its current course towards the left, although the shift is unlikely to be as substantial as it could have been had LFI performed better.

Key pledges all involve significant increases in state spending, and include going back on the controversial pension reform, as well as increasing the minimum wage to €1,600 (up from €1400 today). Something to consider however is an impending sanction from the EU over excessive fiscal deficit, which could limit the flexibility offered to the next government in terms of spending.

Ratings agency Moody’s has warned that the election outcome, and the prospect of a grand coalition was negative for the country’s credit rating, with France unlikely to be in a position to consolidate fiscally in 2025.

In France, foreign policy is the remit of the President: Macron will retain control over foreign affairs, and is expected to work to safeguard Europe against Russian interference, and make internal reform possible. This is likely to not be threatened by a new government, particular a coalition which features his own party.

Because of this, in terms of foreign policy, France is unlikely to see much shift: support of Ukraine is unlikely to change, given that both the hard-left and far-right will likely not be in government. Some of the underlying approaches to Gaza will also remain in place: without LFI in lead position in government, France’s official stance will remain advocating for a two-State solution, while pushing for an end to the conflict. Limited defensive arms deliveries to Israel are also likely to continue.

One possible deviation could involve environmental policy, which sits at the intersection of foreign and domestic policy: with the Green Party possibly joining the next government, France could look to increase its own decarbonisation efforts, and take a more active role in seeking similar acceleration around the world.