GOLD ANALYSIS 27/02/2023

As per our discussion during Friday's session, my position is that I anticipate the high-impact announcements scheduled for today's session to favor sellers later on. Considering the technical necessity for the benchmark test at #1,800.80 and the fundamental developments that will likely have a bearish effect on gold, I see no reason why the #1,800.80 benchmark won't be tested.

During Friday's session, I closed my selling order at #1,823.80 - #1,810.80, generating a profit of #13 points. This has extended my results range to a total of #58 profits and #13 stop-loss hits regarding the April - February cycle. I would like to take this opportunity to congratulate the traders who followed my call as this is the fifth consecutive profit within a two-week period. Well done!

As for the technical analysis, the price action has achieved a temporary equilibrium on the hourly 4 chart, hovering between #1,809.80 and #1,827.80. This suggests that gold is in oversold waters and is still de-balancing the technically bearish dynamics of the short-term and the bullish fundamental "fear factor" (at least for DX). According to my calculations, DX, which is the sole fundamental driver behind gold's potential downtrend in continuation, is gaining strength and directly affecting gold markets. If gold closes the session below the #1,817.80 configuration and does not open with a bullish gap fill throughout tomorrow's session, sellers will arise once again and push the price action possibly towards the #1,800.80 benchmark first. If broken, the price action may pursue #1,792.80 lower low's upper zone projection. Gold continues to represent the product in high speculation mode, and buying spree on DX isn't going in favor of gold's buyers. It is also unknown whether the potential signing of the tariff bill is already priced in or not, as well as the Fed's aggressive stance and how it will be digested by markets.

During Friday's session, I witnessed gold on an intra-day selling sequence along with DX on a parabolic uptrend. There was a fair diagonal correlation between the two. However, on Wednesday's session, gold was preventing further downtrend with almost #18 point recovery from #1,817.80 (former) support. On the same session, DX was skyrocketing on one of the strongest intra-day uptrends since #Q1 , adding no expected selling pressure on gold (price-action should be significantly lower). The daily chart is on a bearish gradient and is constantly delivering selling opportunities, as the price-action is still far from recovering more moving average lines.

It is essential not to ignore the possible consolidation within the current selling cycle, which I have mentioned many times in my remarks. It has many similarities with the August fractal. If the #1,809.80 support breaks aggressively, sole development will pile selling pressure and arise medium-term sellers once again, laying the foundation that can realize the #1,800.80 psychological benchmark test and #1,792.80 extension. As I have mentioned many times throughout my remarks, the #1,800.80 - #1,809.80 support zone won't be invalidated easily, so realize the significance of this level.

Syed Abdullah Shah

+971544708771

shaw@brainhub.uk