THE GRAND FINALE OF WHITE HOUSE BATTLE

November 03, 2020 is all set to witness the grand battle between the incumbent Donald Trump and the challenger Joe Biden also the former Vice-President of Barack Obama government. It also has the potential to chart new territory for the world which is still reeling under the economic and human crisis due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

A presidential election in the Unites States is an international event. Being the head of world’s most powerful, rich and oldest democracy, the US President not only influences the domestic politics but has far reaching impact on global economy, working of multilateral organizations, future of conflict ridden societies and the myriad of peace-conflict measures under progress even thousands of miles away.

With Donald trump at helm of the country, he brought the presidential office in middle of endless controversies ranging from wrecking-ball approach to diplomacy through tweets, unilateral thrashing of bilateral/ multilateral treaties, embracing of far-right policies and protectionism bringing disorder to free and fair global trade. This not only accelerated the American decline on world stage but also gave way to Russia-China to create a multi-polar world.

On the contrary, the former vice president is expected to bring sanity to the office and restore some of the lost ground of US’s supremacy in the world order. This may bring much needed boost to collective action on climate change (unlike Trump’s withdrawal from Paris accord) and the novel coronavirus pandemic (unlike Trump’s casual attitude towards the deadly and devastating pandemic). 

The latest National polls in the most consequential polls in decades also reflect the mood of the nation to favour stability, sanity, balance and normalcy against rhetoric, incompetence, cynicism and high-handedness favoring the win of the Democratic nominee, Joe Biden against Trump.

However, after the 2016 elections polls which depicted lead of over three times by Hillary Clinton against Mr. Trump, the poll results must be trusted with professional skepticism. Also, the pandemic has brought additional uncertainties due to change in the ways polls are being conducted this year.

 As the day approaches both the candidates are coming up with string of promises with cheesy rhetoric by Biden to declaration of free antibodies coronavirus treatment to all Americans by Trump. We bring down some of the major factors that would be deciding the win in 2020 elections.

The US citizens believe that the President has downplayed the COVID situation. The belief turned into reality when just a month before the elections both Mr. President and the First Lady tested positive for coronavirus which raised the concerns over his lack of attentiveness to his own health considering that he is the President of the most powerful country.

However, we cannot be altogether negative about his probability to win as few of his Promises in 2016 elections related to tighter restrictions on immigrations, and unilateral trade policies to put ‘Americans first’ has outshined his career into Politics. Trade-war with China, clampdown on H1B visas and economic growth in past years has put TRUMPONOMICS TO the front and popular amongst certain sections of society.

His trade policy during the term to protect the local manufacturers and trade war with China brought political and economic dividend to Mr Trump from his supporters. He has also been successful in reducing US trade deficit for the first time in 2019 after six years.

Mr. Trump act to repeal Affordable Care Act brought in by Ex-President Barack Obama, reduced Drug costs and his strong support on a series of reforms for Gun rights and take on climate change is expected to swing key votes in his favour in deciding states (also called swing states)

Although the above does light a ray of hope to his diminishing chances of enjoying second term, lack of continuity in moving the policies and ideas forward and a backward looking innovation-ridden approach to the problems has not yielded definitive results for him and the nation. This might just cost him another presidential term.

Alongside as opposed to Hillary Clinton in 2016, Joe Biden hold good among white religious voters and his stand on healthcare policies, bringing racial equality and the approach suggested to tackle with the pandemic have gained lot of interest lately in the country amid COVID crisis.

However, per our understanding the US citizens are always considered to be matured voters when it comes to elect the President of the most powerful nation and irrespective of what happened in recent times, the decision is more driven from the past performance of both Republicans and Democrats.

The world is indeed relying on US voters judgement to set the course of new world order. 

What US elections means for India?

As far as India is concerned, US’s Indo-pacific strategy to contain China’s rise holds India as the central piece. This would definitely pave the way for upward tick in US-India bilateral relations. Past years has seen strong friendship between Mr. Trump and Indian Prime Minister Mr. Modi while the recent days witnessed Biden inclination towards starting a new friendship with India with Navratri greetings and having Kamala Harris as VP-Candidate for his government.

We are expecting to have more structured agreements under Joe Biden presidency due to his bilateral and multilateral trade approaches as opposed to Trump’s major focus on decline in Trade deficit of US.

While we give more credit to Indian Prime Minister Mr. Modi for building strong relationship with Donald Trump, the past has seen good bonding between India and the Democratic party. And considering the uncertainty involved with Mr. Trump as we saw last year ban on H1B, L1 and J1 Visa and his take on Kashmir issue, India favoring Democrats is of no surprise.

Coming times will witness whether Joe Biden going to set a new record to be the oldest First-term President of United States in the history or Donald Trump regime will remain for another Four years.

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