A HIGHLY UNUSUAL 2020 HOLIDAY SHOPPER SEASON AWAITS US

The COVID-19 pandemic has fundamentally changed the world as we know it, and holiday celebrations and gift-giving this year will prove no exception. In a recent survey of 740 consumers from Influence Central’s Insights Panel, fascinating trends emerge about this highly unusual holiday season. From dramatic travel cut-backs to social-distancing amid the pandemic, holiday gatherings will be dramatically reduced this year. For many consumers, the holiday season stretching from Halloween through Thanksgiving on to December will be focused on social distancing and shipping gifts to loved ones not traveling or showing up in person for celebrations. Between these COVID concerns and economic anxiety, e-commerce will lead gift-giving this year, and retailers have already started pushing hard with deals and discounts to lure cash-strapped shoppers into spending. The retailer stakes have never been higher: with innumerable closures and bankruptcy filings of brick and mortar stores, many other cash-strapped retailers find themselves at risk if holiday sales fail to make up for the rest of the year. 41% of consumers already plan to decrease their holiday spending due to budget constraints and another 51% hoping similarly to prior years, brands must proactively capture the attention of consumers across the country. Let’s take a deeper look at the myriad of emergent trends from now to year end.

THE HALLOWEEN THAT’S SCARING FAMILIES AWAY

Parents face an unusual decision this year: how, or even if, to have their kids participate in Halloween festivities. Only 20% of American families hope to trick-or-treat the traditional way door to door this year with their kids. 22% of families plan to sit out Halloween entirely. Another 34% will celebrate with only immediate family at home. Another 13% will host a small gathering with a couple of their kids’ cousins or friends to dress-up and exchange candy. Zoom costume parties will abound. Some enterprising families have scrambled for fun alternatives, such as organizing drive-by trick or treating, where the kids stand outside in costumes, as family friends and neighbors toss out candy and honk for the great get-ups. Others have come up with ideas for backyard candy scavenger hunts for their kids as the weather allows. Family homebound activities will figure large, from pumpkin carving to baking spooky cookies and treats. Already, candy brands have pivoted accordingly in their candy packaging- with less Halloween themes and instead using seasonal displays to enable continued sales through the rest of the year. 

Unsurprising among those celebrating, e-commerce is the first choice for purchasing Halloween costumes, with 35% of consumers turning to their laptops and phones to shop. 25% of Halloween celebrators plan to dig into their creative side, making homemade costumes this year. Expect a decline for in-store costume purchases with only 19% of consumers venturing out to traditional brick-and-mortar establishments. As a reflection of these trends, Party City has slashed the number of Halloween pop-up stores it will open, with 91% fewer than last year.

With Halloween expected to be a bit of a bust and travel spending cancelled, more retailers have put renewed emphasis on year-end December holiday sales.

HOLIDAY SHOPPING: EARLY AND ONLINE 

IT’S ALREADY STARTED

Expect an early holiday season this year as shoppers get a jump-start to score e-commerce deals, ensure shipping without delay worries, and avoid long delays to get into foot-traffic-limited stores. The holiday selling season, typically reserved for the period following Thanksgiving through Dec. 25, has already begun. Holiday-related email promotions from retailers ranging from Crate & Barrel, West Elm and Anthropologie, launched in September. Amazon hosted its Prime Day specials in mid-October. Retailers like Walmart and Home Depot have already announced plans to move their holiday earlier. With continuous and early promotions, Black Friday and Cyber Monday will be less meaningful than prior years.

DEALS AND DISCOUNTS WILL LEAD THE WAY

Persuading cash-strapped consumers — including nearly 30 million collecting unemployment benefits — to splurge on holiday gifts and celebrations will be tougher than usual.

Economic anxiety combined with COVID resurgences across the country means pricing, promotions and value-add strategies will prove critical to brands competitiveness. 85% of consumers believe that an economic recession will be upon. 44% worry about their short-term finances, and 58% greatly worry about their long-term finances. In light of economic anxieties, consumers first and foremost value deals, discounting and cost-saving promotions.  

Moreover, consumers have never been less brand loyal due to budget concerns as well as not being able to find favorite brands in store or online due to supply-side issues. 58% of consumers share that they’ve switched over to more generic brands over the course of the pandemic, compared to 29% willing to do so at the start of COVID-19. The primary reasons for the switch: cost savings (67%), being unable to find favorite brands and products in-store (63%) and being unable find favorite brands and products online (39%). This only enhances the need for deals and discounts to lure consumers back to brand-name preferences.

ECOMMMERCE WILL DOMINATE

During COVID, the forced closure of physical stores as well as being unable to find products on shelf resulted in a massive surge of online buying, from groceries to household goods and consumers have grown used to on-demand delivery. This shift to ecommerce will lead holiday gift giving as well. 

Consumers share that they plan to do most of their holiday present shopping online at major retailers such as Amazon, Walmart, Target, and Kohls. Second choice will be in-store shopping at these same large box store retailers. Third choice: supporting local and smaller businesses, both online and instore. Big box stores, rather than staffing up for more in-store staff and cashiers, instead have begun mass hires to support ecommerce orders. As examples, Target plans to hire 130,000 seasonal workers to help from fulfilling online orders to staffing curbside pick-up, while Walmart will be hiring workers for its e-commerce fulfillment centers, as it braces for a surge in online orders.

30% of consumers already anticipate shipping more presents this year to loved ones as more families stay home for the holidays. Retailers fear that the high demand for fast, free shipping will coincide with overwhelmed package-delivery services imposing surcharges and experiencing delivery delays. This explains the push for early online shopping and shipping for the holidays. 

SOCIAL MEDIA SHOPPING WILL RISE

The impact of social media on purchasing extends into the holiday season, too. The ability to drive sales directly on social platforms builds momentum daily and new social media platform technology makes it easier than ever for consumers to see something they like and instantaneously purchase. 49% of consumers report that for them Facebook leads as the most likely social platform for them to “click” through to shop a brand. Instagram follows with 25% looking to shop via the popular app. Both Facebook and Instagram continue to rapidly upgrade their click-to-shop options as both provide a massive funnel for recommendations driving product discovery and purchase.

HOLIDAY GIFT FAVORITE PREDICTIONS

In addition to the consumer survey on the 2020 holiday season, Influence Central has monitored eight months of consumer overall shopping and lifestyle habits. With psychologists finding it takes about 60 days to form a new habit, the pandemic far exceeds that timeline. Based on ongoing changes in consumer behavior, key categories emerge in terms of holiday shopping.

EVERYTHING COOKING

With gatherings and events being cancelled and a resulting surplus of free time for many, consumers have thronged to home cooking and recipe experimentation as a bastion within which they can shelter themselves from the havoc being wrought by the storm that is COVID-19. 88% of people have been cooking more meals at home since stay-at-home orders went into effect. From amateur cooks to novice bakers, the Pandemic ignited a new wave of home-chefs who have spent the past six months upping their skills. Stand mixers, multipurpose cookers, cookware, countertop appliances specialty bakeware, recipe books, and chef knives rise to the top of many wish lists this season.

ELECTRONICS

With many working from home for the foreseeable future and many children blending virtual learning with classroom attendance, new and upgraded electronics will be huge for many from computers, laptops, tablets to large monitors. 

KICKING HOME ENTERTAINMENT UP A NOTCH — Electronics always dominate the holiday season and this year will likely be stronger as 57% of consumers share they’re watching more TV since COVID started. Expect more streaming subscriptions as well as purchases of streaming devices. Also, as 68% of consumers turn to their mobile phones to stream content, expect new cell phones sales to be strong.

HOME FITNESS AND SPORTS — Gyms and fitness studios across the country shut down in March, leading a run on home workout equipment. With 35% of consumers still on the hunt for more home fitness options today, there’s plenty of space for this sector in holiday sales. Hot products will be outdoor athletic gear and sports equipment to enable spending more time outside in colder winter months. From camping gear and warm clothing for backpackers looking to escape into the wilderness to snowshoes, downhill ski and cross-country ski equipment, cooped up consumers will seek more outdoor exercise. So will weights, indoor bikes, and virtual exercise class subscriptions. 

DIY PROJECTS & TOOLS

With most people still spending the majority of their hours at home amid work from home and social distancing, home projects lingering on the back burner have come roaring to life. 61% of all consumers have undertaken a DIY home project this year, so expect gifts in this category to be strong. Brands have a unique opportunity to market to these DIY-ers with an array of relevant products accompanied by inspiring online project ideas and step-by-step instructions. Moreover, for states facing cold weather, expect fire pit and outdoor heaters to become hot commodities. 

LASTLY, MORE SOLITARY THANKSGIVING AND HOLIDAY CELEBRATIONS

Most consumers’ Thanksgiving and December holiday plans remain up in the air due to the current pandemic as well as economic uncertainty. 75% of consumers already anticipate a decrease in attendance this Thanksgiving due to both Covid-19 concerns around large gatherings and less people traveling long distance. 31% of consumers have already cancelled, postponed, or changed their December holiday plans. Overall, consumers anticipate smaller in-person meals as contrasted to prior years of large family gatherings and buffet style meals.

In contrast, virtual platforms such as Zoom and Facetime will loom large, with already a majority of consumers planning to virtually connect with socially distanced or long distanced family for the upcoming holidays. To show how much times have changed, only 14% of consumers plan to just connect via a phone call.

When it comes to holiday meal prep, 76% of consumers still intend to go in-store to shop for some of their holiday meal ingredients this season, with 31% planning to use online grocery pickup. 20% will do online shopping for home delivery for ingredients. 10% plan to shop directly from a farm or farmer’s market. Charity may also factor into holiday cooking, with cooking up extras to drop off to locally isolated family and neighbors in need.

With more isolation,people will crave an infusion holiday spirit after a year of upheaval, set-backs, loss, uncertainty and anxiety. Brands can capitalize on this through uplifting messaging, infused as a part of their promotions and marketing efforts.