Hot Takes: What To Look For This Upfront/Newfront Season

The Vernal Equinox is almost upon us, and that can only mean one thing: Upfront and Newfront season. 

So to celebrate, we asked our esteemed TVREV Thought Leaders Circle members to give us their thoughts on what you should be looking out for this year.

First up, Tim Hanlon, Founder/CEO of the Vertere Group, and editor of our TVREV Proximity vertical, discussed the challenge of valuing ads across both linear TV and streaming platforms, especially with fragmented measurement systems and various ad currencies.

In an era where most TV viewing has shifted to streaming-first (or, for youngest age groups, streaming-only) behavior, I am looking to see how upfront ad sellers and buyers will each equate value across linear TV and streaming inventory - especially in environments like Paramount, WBD, Disney, NBCU, and Univision (and perhaps Fox, if Tubi becomes more elevated/integrated), where ad units are packaged across both.  With a fragmented Nielsen and bevy of "alt-currencies" in the air this year, I think it will be more complicated than ever to achieve agreement that satisfies both sides of the table.

Mediaocean’s Chief Development Officer Ramsey McGrory, emphasized the importance of audience targeting and measurement for omnichannel marketers, noting the rise of FAST channels and the impact of privacy changes on ad buying and measurement.

Heading into the Upfronts and Newfronts, all eyes are on currencies, convergence, and cookies. As ever, audience targeting and measurement remain critical concerns for omnichannel marketers. With FAST channels scaling and the challenges generated by Google’s Privacy Sandbox, we will see a flight to quality publishers with first-party data across linear, CTV, OLV and social video. 

John Halley, President, Paramount Advertising speaks about the effectiveness of smaller, more bespoke events for in-depth conversations with partners, contrasting with larger, less personal industry events as a better way to get their message across.

We’ve found that the need to have more substantive conversations is more important than ever before. We’re able to accomplish this with the smaller, more bespoke events we started hosting last year. The feedback was incredibly positive. The format allows our most important partners to ask the questions they feel are relevant. It facilitates constructive two-way discussion, and does away with the high-volume circus of years past.

Mike Shields, CEO at Shields Strategic Consulting, is keeping his eyes on Amazon, specifically their balance between shoppability, ROI, and traditional TV-like content.

I'm watching Amazon, which has moved its show into Upfront week. How much are they going to tout shoppability and driving ROI versus the more TV like stuff like Thursday NIght Football, Freevee hits like Jury Duty, and the new ad supported Prime. They have an opportunity to put pressure on the industry, since they have better data and attribution than seemingly anybody. They can change the conversation away from alternative currencies to 'we sell stuff" But, do they want to play the TV glamor game?

LG Ad Solutions CMO Tony Marlow predicts a focus on ad-supported CTV and the emergence of Shoppable TV as a significant trend, integrating shopping experiences into TV viewing.

This year, we anticipate a continued and heightened focus on ad-supported CTV (Connected TV), reflecting the growing appetite for streaming content that offers a more personalized and engaging viewer experience. The rise of ad-supported CTV highlights the industry's shift towards more accessible and targeted advertising solutions, catering to the diverse preferences of today’s digital audience.

Media Cartographer and ESHAP founder, Evan Shapiro highlights a shift towards deals based on data quality and new tech-based currencies.

Four words: Deals based on Data. 

Rohan Castelino, Chief Marketing Officer at IRIS.TVexpects more attention to be paid to emotional relevance and attention measurement in streaming ads, moving away from traditional targeting methods.

As ad dollars shift from linear to streaming, much focus has been on improving measurement. This year, I expect to see more streamers elevating attention metrics and new targeting solutions that emphasize emotional relevance. Unlike when we browse and scroll when watching shows and movies, relevance is more determined by how we feel in the moment rather than our search and purchase history. 

Stu Schwartzapfel, EVP, Media Partnerships at iSpot, talks about the evolution of cross-platform TV measurement and its value in understanding streaming audiences and ad effectiveness.

The evolution of cross-platform TV measurement, and how greater transparency is changing the way advertisers utilize the medium to deliver messaging to desired audiences.

Samsung Ads’ Michael Scott, Vice President of Ad Sales & Operations, discusses the importance of first-party data for precise ad targeting and campaign execution in the face of cookie deprecation.

This year has already proven to be a transformative year in the advertising space amid cookie deprecation, large-scale acquisitions, streaming consolidation and more. In light of these seismic shifts, advertisers are relying on performance outcomes and first-party data more than ever before.

Jon Kaplan, Chief Revenue Officer at Madhive, suggests adopting digital advertising strategies in TV advertising, focusing on targeted audience reach and measurable business outcomes.

As audiences continue to migrate from traditional linear television distribution channels to streaming services, the industry is taking a page from the digital advertising playbook. The strategy going into this year’s Upfronts and Newfronts should focus on the ability to offer precision-targeted audience reach extension, on high quality streaming inventory that compliments owned channels, and with measurement baked in that proves business outcomes.

Paket Media CEO and Co-Founder Raf Bagdassarian comments on Amazon's impact on the industry, emphasizing the importance of personalization in advertising and content delivery

Amazon’s debut at the 2024 Upfronts can only mean one thing: s**t is about to get real. They’ll use their vast resources – specifically, data gleaned from a massive, cross-platform ecosystem – to affect a paradigm shift in how streamers and advertisers reach audiences. From now on, the name of the game is “personalization.”

Charles Lucterhand, VP, Strategic Growth at Teads notes the challenges of audience fragmentation across streaming platforms, offering solutions to reach viewers effectively despite the fragmentation

The transition from linear to streaming, anticipated to boost CTV revenue to $23.5 billion by 2025, according to eMarketer, significantly benefits advertisers. A Teads survey from November 2023 shows 70% reporting improved ROI with CTV ads.

AiBUY’s Dalaney Thompson, Vice President & Head of Strategic Partnerships highlights the role of interactive shoppable media in advertising, focusing on technology that integrates shopping directly into various content forms.

The ability to measure the effectiveness of interactive shoppable media campaigns will be something to keep your eye on as we go into the latter part of 2024. AiBUY's Multicart experience is poised to play a major role in the growth of shoppable media by enabling consumers to seamlessly add products to their cart directly from CTV, web, or mobile content, such as images, videos, or blog posts. The technology offers real-time interaction, allowing viewers to engage with and purchase products without disrupting their content consumption, providing a cohesive and engaging shopping journey.

OrkaTV founder and CEO Mike Woods comments on the significant growth of FAST and its increasing importance for ad buyers, expecting specific allocations for FAST in major ad campaigns.

With over 288% YoY growth, FAST should make a splash for ad buyers at the Upfronts and Newfronts. We’re seeing astonishing growth from both brand-name broadcasters and brand-new niche channels.  Watch for spend to be specifically allocated to FAST by leading brands as line items in major campaigns or even as standalone campaigns on their own.

Mike Duin, ZEASN’s VP Global Marketing & Communications, focused on the need to reach viewers where they are now, which is often on streaming.

As a TV ad buyer you have to make sure your purchasing strategy follows the trends in the market. There are plenty of consumers who no longer can be reached through traditional broadcast TV, yet there are still brands that continue to commit large chunks of their budget to broadcast TV during the Upfronts. TV ad budgets should proportionally be spent on platforms/channels where the audience is reached, which evolves over time as consumers transition to streaming.

Ben Ropke, VP Product at CCR Media honed in on the uniqueness of this year’s Upfronts and the need to accurately measure both streaming and linear.

This is the first Upfront in 5 years that isn't affected by a pandemic or labor strikes. With most of the traditional players returning to a big upfront presentation and many of the streamers doing the same, it will be interesting to see what proportion of dollars are being committed to linear vs. VOD. As this spend reaches parity, it's going to be critical for those that are in the ACR game for measurement, analytics, ad confirmation and ad targeting to have the ability to match to both types of content in order to provide a complete picture of viewing behavior. 

OUR TVREV TAKE: The biggest thing to watch for is how little difference there is between the Upfronts and Newfronts as the line between streaming and linear gets blurrier and blurrier. Prime example is Netflix is having an “upfront” and not a “newfront.”

Other factors to look for this year are increased use of data, the growth of shoppable content, new measurement formats, more dollars shifting to streaming, and how much impact political advertising, traditionally a local and/or spot buy, will have on inventory, especially on streaming.

We’ll keep you posted.

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