Implications of the 2016 International Climate Change Agreement as Agreed in Paris for Nigeria

The Paris climate agreement aims at holding global warming to below 2 degrees Celsius and to “pursue efforts” to limit it to 1.5 degrees Celsius. To accomplish this, countries have submitted Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) outlining their post-2020 climate action. The agreement stipulates that targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions are strengthened over time, both in ambition and scope. Substantial enhancement or over-delivery on current INDCs by additional national, sub-national and non-state actions is required to maintain a reasonable chance of meeting the target of keeping global warming well below 2 degrees Celsius. The agreement brought about serious concerns for international financial institutions because the time frame set for these changes demand a radical transition in the energy sector requiring huge financial investments in clean energy technologies. The bank of America estimated that 900 billion dollars would be required annually by 2030 per yearly investment in the renewables. In the agreement Finance will be provided to “poor” nations to help them cut emissions and cope with the effects of extreme weather and countries affected by climate-related disasters will gain aid.

As at 13 July 2018, of the 179 countries that have so far ratified the agreement, 44 are in Africa, including Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Chad, Ethiopia, Gabon, Gambia, Kenya, Nigeria, Somalia, Tunisia, Uganda and Zambia.

Since the signing of the agreement, several countries have been implementing climate resilience activities that will allow them to adapt to the harsh changes. Beyond ratification, many countries have also fulfilled a key requirement in the agreement by formulating their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). NDCs are the countries individual efforts to achieve climate change goals. In the NDC plan, majority of African countries have stated measures to prioritise climate proofing development activities especially in the economic sectors such as agriculture and energy.

The Nigerian government set out ambitious targets in its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC). It committed to deliver at least a 20% reduction in carbon emissions by 2030, if Nigeria continues to burn fossil fuels at the current rate. As an oil-rich country, and Africa’s largest economy, there seem to be special set of challenges that need to be addressed in Nigeria. The importance of oil to the economy has led many to perceive climate issues as at best an irrelevance or, at worst, a barrier to the development of the economy, this was evidenced recently at the Nigerian senate by withdrawal of a bill seeking to phase out fossil powered cars and introduce electric vehicles by 2035 after a holistic rejection. Until recently, policy makers were not convinced that taking climate change action was warranted. The recent decline in the oil price has helped to bring home some of the benefits from diversification of the economy towards lower carbon activities and energy sources, as a percentage of GDP, government revenue has fallen by 50% since 2008.

Strikingly, in Nigeria, urgent action is required. Nigeria is exposed to climate impacts from coastal flooding in the south to desertification in the north, and the cleanup of Ogoniland, which will take 30 years according to the United Nations Environmental Protection. In 2016, lots of communities were ravaged by heavy flooding across the country, and nothing pragmatic was done to forestall future occurrence. In 2017, more communities were destroyed and people displaced across the country, and these are increasing signs of climate change and global warming.

While the Federal Ministry of Environment holds the responsibility for Nigeria’s commitment to reduce emissions, effective implementation will require strong coordination, collaboration and ‘mainstreaming’ across government ministries, departments and agencies whose remit covers sectors that contribute to carbon emissions

According to Nigeria’s immediate past federal minister of Environment, financing climate action by developing countries, including Nigeria, would require financial support from developing countries which is hinged on the $100 billion by 2020 commitment at COP21. It is estimated that Nigeria will require around $142 billion, translating to about $10 billion per annum to meet her NDC target by 2030. One of the innovative means of exploring opportunities of meeting Nigeria’s NDC is through the issuance of green bonds, which has gained recognition as means of raising finance for climate friendly purposes and Nigeria government plans to issue N150 billion in green bonds over the next few years. This was with a pilot issue of N12.384 billion at the third quarter of 2017 and the balance over the course of the budget year, pulling together partners necessary to achieve what would be Nigeria and African first sovereign green bond.

To ensure a legal framework, the Nigerian House of Representatives passed a bill to provide a legal framework for mainstreaming of climate change responses and actions into government policy formulation and implementation and also proposed establishment of a council to coordinate climate change governance and support the adaptation and mitigation of the adverse effects of climate change in the country. It is hoped that it will facilitate the domestication of the Paris Climate agreement and enable Nigeria to effectively implement its commitments, particularly the emission reductions target. The bill will provide a framework for a federal budget appropriation process that institutionalises transparency and accountability of climate related sources, including international climate finance. An example is the Nigerian ecological funds which has not being judiciously utilised in the past and hugely spent without accountability.

An effective response and implementation in Nigeria towards the Paris climate agreement requires greater coordination. The Inter-Ministerial Climate Change Committee (ICCC) was vital in the drafting and submission of Nigeria’s INDC and acts as a watchdog, monitoring implementation, supporting issue resolution and actions to achieve agreed targets and to engage and communicate with non-governmental stakeholders (e.g. private sector, NGOs, civil society, UNFCCC, donors) to establish collaborative partnerships as a determinable legal and policy framework on climate policy will increase certainty and investor confidence in the Nigerian market.

Amidst the global euphoria of a climate deal, a major challenge of the Paris climate agreement is the mischaracterization of science as a partisan issue by some national politics and government. The agreement is not legally binding, so future governments of the signatory countries could yet renege on their commitments as the United States has recently done, which may see other less industrialized countries such as Nigeria toe the same part of withdrawal because of national politics. For withdrawal from the agreement, Article 28 of the Paris Agreement permits a Party to withdraw by giving written notification to the Secretary-General of the United Nations, which notification may only be provided “after three years from the date on which [the Paris Agreement] entered into force for a Party.” Withdrawal then takes effect upon expiry of one year from the date of receipt.