Iraq Election Update - May 19, 2018

I am grateful to my friends at Daesh Daily for their Iraqi election update (see below), which details the latest party/alliance standings in terms of parliamentary seats. The magic number to construct a new government is 165 seats.  This is a difficult total to achieve because no single party achieved more than 54 seats to date (which could change a bit after governmental allocations are computed). Hypothetically, even adding the top three parties/alliances together will not achieve enough seats to create a new regime.

There are some interesting developments that have not caught the eye of many journalists to date. We all knew that Nouri Al-Maliki’s Rule of Law coalition did not fare well, but now it looks even worse. His team, which just several years ago was the leading political force in Iraq, took just sixth place in the election – there is a huge political reality here, going from the penthouse to the outhouse. Put another way, Maliki achieved less than one-third of the seats that Sadr garnered. The Kurdish KDP and Hakim’s Al-Hikma fared better, in addition to the four other parties/alliances that were reported in earlier articles. This is very significant when trying to assemble a government. Not to ignore Fath Al-Mubin (Amiri), the pro-Iranian political alliance of militias, which took second place in the election, although their appeal dissipates rapidly once you head north and west of Baghdad, where Kurds and Sunnis have little love for them.    

We are aware that Iran’s Major General Qassem Soleimani (IRGC) has been camped out in Baghdad, trying to unify pro-Iranian Iraqi political organizations. Protests against Iranian interference are growing with each day, as Iraqis embrace sovereignty and nationalism (unity). Looking at the tally of seats, it appears that assembling 165 seats will be a daunting task. If one takes the top five alliances that could potentially be seen as pro-Iran, the total falls short at 141 seats. Also, it seems unlikely that Nasr (Abadi) would want to cozy up with Rule of Law (Maliki), even though they both have roots in the Dawa party. However, unusual and bizarre alliances can occur in Iraq, but who would serve as PM of this pro-Iranian government?

On the other side, Muqtada Al-Sadr has a positive mathematical path to form a government (Note: Sadr has no ability to serve as PM because he did not run for a seat). If you add the top six parties/alliances that hold common values with Sa’irun (Sadr) – sovereignty, nationalism (unity), anti-corruption, competent public administration, and military professionalism – the number of seats totals 165. Realistically, to achieve this majority (or more), the choice of next PM will have a big impact on cohesion and cooperation. It is clear that Sadr has several political advantages that reflect legitimacy. First, his Sa’irun block won the most votes/seats. Second, the Iraqi people are fed up with the professional political class, whom they view as incompetent and corrupt. Third, the low voter participation rate is another example of Iraqi frustration with the existing political actors. Real change is desired. Stay tuned for updates.

 Joseph R. Núñez, Ph.D.

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Daesh Daily

Friday May 18, 2018

Editors: Ali Sada & Dr. Thomas Renahan

Iraqi Election

Here are the numbers of seats won, by order of finish.

Sa’irun (Sadr alliance) 54

Fath Al-Mubin (Conquest-Al-Amiri) 47

Nasr (Victory-Al-Abadi) 42

KDP 24

Al-Hikma (Wisdom—Hakim) 19

Rule of Law (Al-Maliki) 17

PUK 16

Al-Qarar (Decision—Osama Nujaifi) 14

Al-Wataniya (National Forces—Allawi) 12

Anbar Is Our Identity (Gov. Al-Halbusi) 6

Gorran  4

New Generation 4

Castle of the Masses (Salahuddin) 3

Ninewa Is Our Identity 3

Arab Alliance (Kirkuk) 3

Turkmen Front (Kirkuk) 3

Kafa’at 2

Irada 2

Bayareq Al-Khair (Baghdad) 2

Aberoun (Anbar) 2

Democracy and Justice (Salih) 1

Kurdistan Islamic Union 1

Kurdistan Islamic Group 1

These seat allocations total 282 and so are not the final totals. There are 329 seats in the Council of Representatives. There are several seats guaranteed to small minorities and other adjustments to be made under the proportional representation system, which will change some of the seat numbers, probably in favor of the alliances who got the larger numbers of votes, but would not change the order of finish. [Sumaria]

New Government

Muqtada Al-Sadr wrote on Friday that the victory of his alliance in the CoR elections had “upset a lot [of people]” while adding that the alliance was going to work for reform and would not give up. He made the remarks on his personal Twitter account after meeting with Wisdom alliance leader Ammar Al-Hakim. [Sumaria]

Abd Al-Hadi Al-Saadawi, an MP in the Rule of Law alliance, said on Friday that there were “high-level” understandings with the Al-Fath (Conquest) and Wisdom alliances to form a government. In an interview with Sumaria, he went on to say that Rule of Law had some agreements with other Sunni and Kurdish parties, and that there were “simple understandings” with Victory. Al-Saadawi said that Rule of Law had no “red lines” against forming a government with any party, provided that party “believes in a political majority.” He added that Al-Abadi abandoning his desire to be PM would make it easier for him to be in a coalition to form the new government, and that if Al-Abadi insisted on a second term as PM, he believed that all the other alliances would protest and reject this. [Sumaria]

Muqtada Al-Sadr received a group of ambassadors from neighboring countries and said that the principle of Iraq’s foreign relations was that “neighboring countries are friends, not enemies.” Al-Sadr’s office released a press statement on Friday saying that the ambassadors invited were Fatih Yildiz of Turkey, Muntaser Zu’bi for Jordan, Abdulaziz Al-Shammari for Saudi Arabia, Sattam Jad’an Al-Dandh for Syria, and Salem Al-Zamanan for Kuwait. Al-Sadr’s additional statements addressed his hope that the month of Ramadan would bring the Islamic and Arab countries further together. [Sumaria]