Italian elections 2018
This is an initial analysis of the Italian elections of March 4th developed by RPP Italia. At the end of the vote counting, we will be providing you with further and more specific sectoral assessments in the next few days to give present further analysis on the public affairs work to be done in the new Legislature. For a tailored insight into what this means for your business contact us at e.ferri@rpp-group.com .
The elections demonstrate a very clear result in terms of public intention and perception of the political system. From one side the victory of Movimento 5 Stelle and its leader Luigi Di Maio (over 30% of the votes) expresses a lack of faith in traditional politics and parties and a rejection of institutions. On the other side the impressive result of Lega Nord with Matteo Salvini (almost 19%) is evidence that Italians feels insecure on the issue of immigration and the active participation in the European Union and the Euro zone.
The implosion of Partito Democratico (less than 20%), due to the end of Matteo Renzi's leadership, is not balanced by the other parties in the centre-left coalition as no one has reached the quorum of 3% needed for acquiring seats on the proportional lists. Even the competence and the historic position of Emma Bonino (Leader of + Europa, that leads the majority list in a favourite polling station in Rome) did not sway voters to the centre-left.
For the centre-right coalition, the result of Forza Italia was weak (between 13 and 14%) and this implies the end of Berlusconi's influence over the future alliances. By the same token Fratelli d'Italia, led by Giorgia Meloni, with more than 4% has shown to be consistent but not winning within the coalition.
The party Liberi e Uguali, born from the division of Partito Democratico and under the leadership of the President of the Senate Pietro Grasso, has obtained a very low result (over 3%) compared to polls and shown that the country in not passionate about nostalgic leftish values.
Overall the elections have shown the difficulty in obtaining a majority to run a new Government. Even the option of a ‘grand coalition’ between Forza Italia, Partito Democratico and other minor parties is no longer possible. Moreover, the weakness of Berlusconi and the strength of Salvini (Lega Nord) and Di Maio (Movimento 5 Stelle) are the symptoms of a country which considers the current political system not adequate to respond to citizens' needs.
Within this situation the key player becomes the President of the Republic Sergio Mattarella who, after consultation with all the parties in the Parliament, has to assign the task to an interim Prime Minister for creating a Government.
Another important scrutiny will the appointment of the new speakers at the Senate and at the Chamber that will potentially express the preliminary potential alliances.
The option of new general elections cannot be excluded although within the current electoral system it is unlikely that a different result could be reached.
RPP Italy will continue to monitor the situation and provide with a deeper analysis of the vote during this week.