Its the Economy! Kenya After the Election on 9th August
Kenya will not be same after the election on 9th August. It cannot be. At 7.9%, inflation is at the highest it has ever been for five years, leaving Kenyans despondent as cost-of-living spirals out of control. And public debt at 70% of the GDP. These are the two major challenges that either the Raila Odinga who is running under the Azimio la Umoja Coalition party, or William Ruto who is running on the Kenya Kwanza Coalition, will face from day one.
Kenya is an important trade and logistics hub with, 82% of goods to Uganda and the Great Lakes region passing through the port of Mombasa. As smooth and peaceful election would reduce the probability of wider disruptions to logistics and supply chains not only within the country itself, but to neighbouring Uganda, South Sudan, DR Congo and Rwanda.
After the election, Kenyans are not only waiting for quick and dramatic changes in their fortunes for the better, but long-term sustainable progress which will move masses out of poverty. This is where the country has faltered. Although the country has had an annualized GDP growth rate of 4% over the last 20 years, the growth has been characterized as inequitable, leaving the majority struggling for basic needs.
The next president will have a tough balancing act of paying policy attention to urgent and pressing problems like debt and cost of living, and long-term growth. In terms of long-term prospect, the two candidates have placed a big focus on agriculture, manufacturing, Medium Small and Micro Enterprises, water and health.
In agriculture Raila Odinga promises to improve agriculture investing in mechanization research and improving financial access in the sector. William Ruto’s ideas in agriculture revolve around reducing reliance on agro exports, and a lot of supply side support to small scale farmers with finance and agricultural inputs. Both candidates have promised to institute price floors for farmers, by providing minimum guaranteed prices for farmers which could be difficult to achieve because of the amount of money involved and volatility in global markets.
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Youth unemployment features prominently in the manifestos of the presidential aspirants as 35% of the youth are unemployed. The candidates see SMEs as an important driver of job creation and hope a raft of policy and regulatory reforms would unlock the potential to create more employment. On social policy, both candidates focus on health, water, access to affordable housing and education as well as social support to the most vulnerable members of society. The attainment of Universal Health Coverage is an important feature of the current government and it is promising that both candidates promise to instate national health insurance schemes and free education. Their policies on water differ, with Raila Odinga promising investment in large infrastructure-based projects, while Ruto promises an distribute approach with farmers and citizens provided with the tools to harvest water.
The next government will also have to put measures in place to achieve the SDGs and Climate targets. Curiously, sustainability and green transition has not featured prominently in the manifestos. The current crisis in Ukraine and run-away energy prices have highlighted the importance of accelerated energy transitions as an avenue of hedging the country against volatile energy prices in global markets.
Like the presidential candidates, the ordinary Kenyan have two concerns. Firstly, that the election process is peaceful and allows them to go on with their lives. Secondly, that the new government will commit to fight corruption, improve the rule of law, and keep the promise for democratization. Because only then will the country lay a firm basis for competitive and cooperative industry, job creation and sustainability.