Jammu And Kashmir Talks Through A Wide Lens

The entire mainstream political leadership of the state of Jammu and Kashmir was jailed after the 5th August decision on Article 370, in 2019. Suddenly, all leaders of the Union Territories (UTs) were called for discussions in June 2021, to Delhi, by the Prime Minister. Both the issues are being considered as purely internal political matters of India by the Central Government. 

While India's claims are quite clear, the illegal occupation of a major part of Kashmir by Pakistan in Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK) makes it a regional matter too. Globally too, there has been anxiety for how the Kashmir situation has been handled and is being handled. Thus the talks and discussions would be positive, especially for the Biden Administration. In parallel, since February 2021, the sudden ceasefire on the Line of Control (LoC) has managed to hold on to the results of the back-channel talks. Both sides are maintaining a low profile for now. 

The pro-contact elements in Pakistan including Army Chief General Qamar Bajwa and Prime Minister Imran Khan, want India to take some positive steps in Jammu and Kashmir to help silence their critics. They wish for the restoration of statehood and no demographic changes in the Kashmir valley. The Indian government wants Pakistan to end terrorism if it wants a stable and peaceful relationship. However, the Indian Army Chief General M.M. Naravane has clarified that Pakistan is not dismantling its terror infrastructure. The Indian government is unlikely to stop itself from going back to the bilateral relationship that existed until the 5th of August of 2019.

Hence the restoration of some bilateral trade, and the return of High Commissioners, is possible, as could be the visits to Kartarpur Sahib Gurudwara. But India's Prime Minister, Narendra Modi cannot restart the bilateral dialogue unless the terror ends, and Pakistan's Prime Minister Imran Khan and General Bajwa cannot move ahead unless India reverses the steps taken on 5th August 2019. 

Would the two sides discuss the changing situation in Afghanistan? Perhaps not, as Pakistan avoids doing that, and wants the Indian role to be purely and totally economic there. India is now showing interest in engaging with the Taliban, though Pakistan is advising them against engaging with India. The Indian diplomacy missed the chance early on when the Taliban wanted to talk, as it was just focused on President Ghani. It's too late now.

While Pakistan aspires to control Afghanistan's evolving situation, it doesn't want the Taliban to create the conditions of the first regime in the 1990s. That's because it has now amalgamated its own Federally Administered Tribal Area (FATA) with Khyber - Pakhtunkhwa Province (KP) and wouldn't want to destabilize it.

Pakistan must allow India to play a greater role, that is beyond economics, in Afghanistan as most Afghans have a positive inclination for India. But can that happen?

- Aindri Abhishek Singh