Janasena: A sub regional force in the making

The Andhra Pradesh elections 2019 have seen a three cornered fight between the TDP, YSRCP and Janasena. While for TDP and YSRCP these are not the first elections, Janasena has entered into its maiden electoral fray. While TDP and YSRCP contested alone, Janasena established by film star Pawan Kalyan, entered into an alliance with the left parties and the Bahujan Samaj Party. YSRCP registered a thumping win with 151 seats out of 175 member assembly and TDP stood at a distant second with 23 seats. Janasena+ could manage to get only one seat with its founder losing both the seats that he contested.

We tried to explore the impact of Janasena in Andhra Pradesh’s electoral politics. Though it could not get seats, the party candidates were able to get a sizable chunk of votes. Results of 51 (barring the seat it won) assembly constituencies have been impacted by Janasena and its allies. By impact, we mean that the votes secured by Janasena+ were more than the win margin. Janasena was able to split anti establishment vote in 13 constituencies benefitting TDP. In 38 constituencies, it has cut votes of TDP and YSRCP won here.

For the purpose of our analysis of the 51 constituencies that Janasena has impacted the results, we define the following criteria:

It should be read this way: When the impact was weakest, votes secured by Janasena candidate were less than 5,000 but the majority of the winner was less than the votes secured by Janasena candidate. When we say the impact was high, Janasena candidate secured more than 40,000 votes and winner got majority less than the votes secured by Janasena candidate.

Weakest Influence:

In 3 constituencies, Janasena had weakest influence. In two cases, TDP was at a disadvantage and YSRCP in one. It is to be noted that in all the three cases, the majority of the winner is less than 5000 votes.

Weak Influence:

Janasena had a weak influence in 5 constituencies. TDP was at a disadvantage in 4 and YSRCP in 1. The vote difference between winner and loser was as low as 1647 and highest being 6417.

Mild influence:

As many as 16 constituencies were mildly influenced by Janasena. YSRCP won 12 and TDP, in 4 constituencies. Vote difference between winner and loser in these 16 constituencies ranged between 708 and 12886.

Significant influence:

12 constituencies were significantly influenced by Janasena. Performance of Janasena candidates was to the disadvantage of YSRCP candidates in 3 constituencies and 9 candidates belonging to TDP. Janasena candidates secured votes between 22367 and 29905. Win margin in these constituencies ranged from as low as 25 in Vijayawada central to 21688 in Nidadavole. Four constituencies fall under Krishna, two each fall under East and West Godavari, Guntur and one belongs to Visakhapatnam. Six contestants belong to Kapu, two each belong to Kamma, BC, and one each to Kshatriya and SC. Six candidates each are established and new.

Strong influence:

Janasena candidates showed a strong influence in 10 constituencies. YSRCP lost in 3 and TDP in 7 of these constituencies. Janasena candidates secured votes between 30137 and 39247 in these constituencies. Six constituencies fall under East Godavari, three under West Godavari and one in Krishna. Six contestants belong to Kapu community and Kamma, BC, Vysya and SC got one each. There are six established candidates and 4 new entrants.

High influence:

Barring the seat it won, Janasena has highly influenced results in 5 constituencies. YSRCP and TDP candidate lost in one seat each. Janasena candidates stood second in position in the remaining 3 seats. Interestingly, two seats where Janasena stood second were Gajuwaka and Bhimavaram where Pawan Kalyan contested. Out of these 5 constituencies, Janasena candidates of 4 constituencies are established in politics and only one is a new entrant. 3 candidates belong to Kapu community, one BC and one is reserved constituency. Two each constituencies belong to East Godavari and West Godavari and one belongs to Visakhapatnam which is Gajuwaka.

Conclusion:

Though Janasena was a relatively new entrant, it gave a tough fight in about one third of constituencies of the state. It exerted its influence in Visakhapatnam, East and West Godavari, Krishna and some parts of Guntur. It failed to put any kind of fight in the four Rayalaseema districts, Ongole, Nellore, Srikakulam and Vizianagaram. As expected, it performed well in Kapu dominant areas. Some of the new entrants into politics who contested on Janasena ticket were also able to influence voters thanks to their founder's and their own charisma, local dynamics and community backing. Janasena has huge potential of becoming a strong sub regional party in the near future and a regional party in the long run.

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