Just your run-of-the-mill pandemic! FAA degrades Russian safety rating. Delta Pilots Picket Over Working Conditions.

Good morning Monday readers! This week, my team and I will be in Dallas, Texas, for MRO Americas . If you're happening to be at the show, please let me know - would love to meet up with people.

As is always the case in aviation - nothing happened. Nothing at all. Just your ordinary run-of-the-mill week. (Grin)

Delta: Nothing to See here - just a run-of-the-mill plague.

I have to wonder if at Delta Airlines they said to themselves, "you know - things are going way too well here. Let's see if we can totally screw ourselves up."

Well...

After backlash on social media, Delta Air Lines has walked back a news release  claiming that the coronavirus , which continues to account for more than 35,000 new cases  per day, has killed to date roughly six million people (the equivalent of the Nazi Holocaust) worldwide, and disrupted commerce and activity for the better part of the last two and a half years, has become “an ordinary seasonal virus.”

The airline issued the release last Monday in an announcement stating that it will no longer require masks — a move several U.S. airlines have made after a federal judge struck down mask mandates  in public transportation settings.

Delta Air Lines rewrote the statement the following day after a number of people — including public health experts — accused the carrier of spreading misinformation. The announcement now reads that the airline is “relieved” to see the mask mandate lifted as the coronavirus “transitions to a more manageable respiratory virus — with better treatments, vaccines and other scientific measures to prevent serious illness.”

A Delta PR representative told NPR over email that Delta had rewritten the news release for "clarity and accuracy" and declined to comment further.

(SMH)

Ok then...

BTW - if you're like super interested, I called it two months ago . I also went on Fox and discussed it. I'm doing some more interviews this week to talk about the ramifications going forward.

(As a quick aside - I think it's ridiculous Delta and others are letting unruly passengers back on board. Do you need the revenue so damn bad you're willing to let complete known assholes who interrupted flights back onboard? Are you people daft?)

While I don't think this is the last mask article I'm writing this year - I surely hope so. I hope that COVID winds up being endemic in the United States and that we continue to eradicate its prevalence around the world.

But I think it's a stretch to say it's an "ordinary virus" at this point.

And now... this...

In Soviet Russia - Planes Fly You!

Predictably, the FAA has basically said Russian airplanes now suck and it's 50-50 if you get off alive.

Well, they didn't say that - but we're probably going to hear something like it quite soon.

The Federal Aviation Administration did downgrade the air safety for Russia's commercial air fleet. Following the downgrade, Russia is in Category 2, which restricts any expansion of service or partnerships since the FAA concluded that the country’s Federal Agency for Air Transport (Rosaviatsiya) no longer complies with the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) safety standards.

“The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has downgraded the air safety rating for Russia, restricting any expansion of service or partnerships since Russia’s Federal Agency for Air Transport does not comply with International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) safety standards,” the agency said in a statement . The FAA did not list specific reasons for the downgrade beyond failure to comply with ICAO standards.

By degrading Russia into Category 2 status, the United States is effectively freezing the ability of Russian airlines to add new services (assuming they ever get to fly over US airspace again). It would also mean if the sanctions were suddenly removed, Russian air carriers would remain barred from US airspace until they meet the ICAO standards.

Other countries that have this rating are: Bangladesh, Curaçao, Ghana, Malaysia, Mexico, the members of the Organization of Eastern Caribbean States (Antigua & Barbuda, Dominica, Grenada, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and St. Kitts and Nevis), Pakistan, Thailand, and Venezuela.

Air safety rating assessments are conducted under the FAA’s International Aviation Safety Assessment (IASA) program, which reviews the civil aviation authorities of “all countries with air carriers that have applied to fly to the United States, currently conduct operations to the United States or participate in code-sharing arrangements with U.S. partner airlines.”

Yeah - I suppose getting cut off from all parts, no MRO services available worldwide, and cannibalizing plane parts like it's "Lord of the Flies" can be a real gut punch to your ratings.

I've concluded that Russia will be basically out of international aviation for the next 20 years or longer - and that assumes the conflict ended tomorrow - which it won't.

Since March 2, Russian flagged aircraft have been barred from entering US Airspace by order of the Secretary of Transportation. The FAA does not typically publish a list of banned air carriers in most cases because it tries to work with countries and carriers that fall below its safety ratings. Russia is a notable exception because of the Russo-Ukrainian war.

What a mess.

Delta Pilots Picket Demanding Better Working Conditions - Like being able to like not be exhausted when flying

Continuing Delta's non-stop winning PR streak this week, Delta pilots were picketing in Seattle, Salt Lake, Atlanta, and my home airport - MSP - last week.

The off-duty Delta airline pilots picketed in several major Delta hubs last week citing fatigue from working overtime to cover for a pilot shortage as the airline’s flight schedule returns to pre-pandemic levels.

“Delta is overscheduling flights for the number of pilots we have. So, they’re relying on pilots to fly record amounts of overtime, flying on their days off to staff the airline,” said Delta Capt. Jason Ambrosi, a union leader to KIRO 7 News . “Fatigue can become a safety issue if it’s ongoing.”

According to the ALPA , the union representing all 13,500 Delta pilots, members are currently in negotiations with the airline for a new contract. Talks resumed in January after a two-year hiatus due to the pandemic.

Union negotiators are forwarding schedule changes they say would alleviate the pressure put on pilots "to ensure safe, reliable service for our customers." They claim forcing crews to work long hours or additional days to handle increasing passenger loads leaves "no room for error."

This is a challenge that is going to continue probably for the next decade. Never before have U.S. airlines been more desperate for pilots. The massive pilot shortage affects not only the airlines but also the millions who fly each year.

U.S. airlines hope to add 13,000 pilots just this year, but on average, America produces only between 5,000 and 7,000 pilots annually. With fewer pilots, supply will be limited and ticket prices will continue to climb with demand.

The U.S. will lose about half of its pilots to retirement in the next 15 years, according to the Regional Airline Association. American Airlines expects more than 5,000 of its 15,000 pilots to retire in the next seven years.

This is why I highlighted that article last week about American Airlines announcing it would begin busing passengers from smaller cities to its hub in Philadelphia. It's easier to find a guy with a CDL than an ATP and type rating.

Noodle that one.

The answer is quite obvious and it's one I have seen the industry resist for the past three years (since we started doing this): the airlines will have to heavily subsidize pilot training because the US Government is no longer going to do it for them.

For the past 50 years, airlines primarily relied on the US Air Force and the US Navy to provide highly qualified combat airmen into the pipeline for pilots. Now that pipeline is gone. Going forward, the military will likely be in competition with commercial aviation for pilots (since they need pilots too), and the overall supply of pilots is just not enough to meet the demand.

On average, it costs 90K to receive the training necessary to be qualified as an air transport pilot. That's the equivalent of a college degree at a public university. For many ATP pilots - the cost of training is more like 150-170K.

Now, your average ATP-rated pilot makes only $45/hour - or roughly 93K - and that's not out of the gate - that's the average across the industry right now. Yes, some make much more - the top 25% at about 162K a year - and some can make even more as a private pilot. But the vast majority are in that 30-40-50/hour range.

The average starting salary for an ATP-rated pilot is 28-30K.

Now, this is my experience having tried to market flight schools and having interviewed about 50 ATP students over the past two years. None of them are in it for the money - because there is very little money to be made at the beginning. Basically, they (and the vast majority of wannabe pilots I've interviewed are men), have dreams of walking tall through the airport in Ray-Bans, having non-stop sex with hot flight attendants, and commanding big steel skipping through the clouds like they're Chuck Yeager.

(A fantasy they're quickly disabused of when they sign with their regional carrier - schlepping bargain-basement travelers to Cincinnati or something.)

So, do the math - you'll figure out why it requires heavy subsidy if the airline industry wants sufficient pilots to fly planes.

Now, you'll also see videos like this:

Now, yes I know pilots that make 200-300K. They typically have 15K hours. All of them were career naval pilots before going to a major airline. All of them have 10-15 years with that airline.

... and oh - all of them are retiring in the next 5 years... and some have already retired.

So sure... that's a ton of money if the government trained you for free and you're a highly tenured pilot. That's not what "most" pilots I've met are doing. Most pilots are like that first video. Or like in this video from my friend at 74 Gear .

So - it's a rough gig at the moment. Requires a lot of investment by the pilot in training, and yeah maybe if they stick it out - they get a very nice six-figure salary.

That's why I deal with averages - and on the average - it's hard to justify the outlay on a dollar and cents analysis. That's why most pilots I've ever met - do it because they love flying.

So this is a long-term problem - overworked qualified pilots. A constant struggle to backfill. A constant struggle to meet the demand.

The only way out - is to completely change the dynamic. The reason why we have Vanderbilt University, Carnegie-Mellon University, and other educational institutions named for industrialists; why we have the Morrill Land Grant Act in 1862 (which is what lead to the development of the State universities and college systems); and why college was seen as mandatory, was it was the education that leads to people being able to fuel the industrial and post-industrial revolution.

The airlines need to draw the same conclusion and build the pipeline to assure they have pilots.

Either that or make robots. In the end, I have no doubt it will be robots.

One of the things being discussed in Congress is the "1500 hour" rule. In short, following the crash of Colgan Air Flight 3407 , no pilot is allowed to fly a US carrier as an ATP-rated pilot with less than 1500 flight hours of training. When the 1,500-hour rule went into effect in 2013, it increased by sixfold the legal minimum number of flying hours required to become a pilot at a U.S. commercial airline.

So lately, some in Congress have been eying the idea of reducing the requirement to bring pilots on faster and to reduce the cost of becoming an ATP-rated pilot.

My instinct tells me - it's probably a bad idea. While I am sympathetic to the claims about 1500 hours of unspecified training, if anything then, we need to define the training better to be qualified to be an entry-level ATP-rated pilot as SIC on an airline.

I don't think 200-300-400 hours is sufficient. I don't think simulator time is sufficient. I do think, however, that if we did 200 hours with instructors in jet aircraft, I might then go along with reduced hours. That said - that's going to cost as much as the 1500-hour rule is now, and it's a cost that would likely have to be borne directly by airlines (which I find unlikely.)

I remain convinced, however, that it's the airlines that should pay for this - they're the ones who need the workers. They also have the resources to make it happen.

Henry Ford didn't go to Washington and demand they figure out how to make him more factory workers. Instead, he paid higher wages and forced them into education. That's in part how we got the college system (as I explained before). Similarly, airline pilots don't need more money in student loans or anything else... the airlines need to just accept the fact that "Bob the Pilot" is no different from the 100K airplane part they have to buy, or the C-check they have to do so that the 787 they're flying doesn't fall out of the sky.

This really is just another logistic problem - and the airlines are quite good at solving this exact type of coordination challenge.

The fact they want the Government to just fund it through loans or whatever - strikes me as absolutely ridiculous. These people are being trained to work in the industry with trade skills. I see no reason whatsoever airlines shouldn't directly bear that cost.

Whether or not that ever happens - remains to be seen. Only one airline has tried it, and it just started this year. On Jan. 27, United Airlines officially became the only major U.S. carrier to own a flight training school, with the grand opening of its United Aviate Academy . UA has set a company goal of training 5,000 new pilots at the school by 2030.

We'll see if others follow.

Editorial Note: Delta Airlines - I'm not trying to pick on you this week. I'm a Platinum soon-to-be Diamond medallion member for two years in a row. I fly on Delta monthly (sometimes more.) Having flown other airlines - I continue to fly Delta because they're quite good. And others think so too since the WSJ ranked Delta #1. You guys just had a rough week.

About "The View from 30,000 Feet":

"The View from 30,000 Feet" is a weekly newsletter distributed on LinkedIn that covers news stories we think you might have missed about aviation, aerospace, and travel. It is produced by The Aviation Agency , an advertising agency that focuses exclusively on aviation, aerospace, and defense clients.

The views expressed in the newsletter are those of the Executive Editor (Bryan Del Monte) and are based on reports found across the Internet and from sources we think are reliable. If you have an idea or a contribution, feel free to write to stories@theaviationagency.com . If you're a media source and you'd like our thoughts for a story, reach out .

As always, thanks for reading.