'Kung Fu Panda 4' Will Bring Families Out of Hibernation While 'Imaginary' Hopes To Make Up An Audience - Ticket Sales Tracking (3/4-3/7)

Hi,

I've been tracking ticket sales for movies recently at my two local NJ AMCs that do fairly well.

After two long months, there is finally sign of life in the theatrical marketplace. The spice was hitting just right last weekend as Dune: Part II brought out the highest opening weekend since October. To even better news, the star-studded early Oscar hopeful came in above both my $7.21M Thurs and $15.69M Fri predictions. This means actuals came in above my $24.90M Pre+Thurs+Fri guesstimate, which is a much needed win for WB and your local cinema. With a "light" $190M budget and nearly 2 months of minimal competition, Paul Atreides and the Fremen will be in the green in no time.

To keep this moviegoing train on a roll, studios are finally giving in the starving audience for two of the most dependable genres, family and horror. After nearly three long months, kids will finally return to theaters with Dreamwork's Kung Fu Panda 4. Eight years after the last installment, Jack Black is back as Po with Universal (again) about to pass the baton over to itself for the winning animated feature of the season. While Spring Break is slowly happening across the states, it may not be in full force in my area. Therefore, as an animated feature during semi-holiday days, we will be using Migration as a comp. For the older teens, horror is finally back in theaters with Imaginary. Now distributed through Lionsgate instead of their home at Universal (never a good sign), Blumhouse is back with a hopeful, quick cash grab from the younger horror fans. As an original, low-buzz horror title, we will be using Thanksgiving as a comp. I have recorded ticket sales for this Thursday and Friday for 3 Days. The green bars are how much ticket sales increased from day to day.

Animation is back and it seems that families are ready more than ever. Even with arguably strong ticket sales for an animated title, growth has been exceptionally well on both days indicating high momentum for the fourth entry in this sixteen-old series. At this rate, KFP4 is looking at a $4.63M Thursday compared to Migration. For an animated title during the non-Summer season, what an outing! Sure, Spring Break could have an effect, but this looks to be a very encouraging start as Friday is looking just as strong with $13.54M compared to Migration. With so many showings, the theater capacities are not as strong compared to your standard blockbuster, but they are marginally in more demand than your standard animated title, especially Migration. Studios, listen to your audiences. The kids need movies! Where was anything back in February?? As long as the word of mouth is positive, Dreamworks will have a much needed hit on their hands that will leg out until Memorial Day. Thank you, Garfield.

Too not much surprise, the original horror is playing out just as expected. While there was initial confidence with sales in the beginning of the week, per many smaller horror titles, ticket sales were rather mute throughout the week with a trend of strong day of walk-ups. Currently, Imaginary is on track to make up a $.72M Thurs compared to Thanksgiving. Not terrible, not great. Sadly, Friday is looking just as average with $2.83M compared to Thanksgiving. To be fair, it is not that surprising an original horror title with softer marketing and WOM is hitting these numbers. With limited screenings, the theater capacities are not too shabby, With a higher capacity at Theater 1, we can be expecting strong walk-ups at locations prone to horror/teen audiences. Yet, theater capacity at Theater 2 is down compared to Thanksgiving, hinting at a low reach outside those prime venues. This may not be the horror outing that theaters are looking for, but it will due to fill the barren Spring Break space.

Overall, this leads Kung Fu Panda 4 at an opening Th+F of $18.17M. You'll be seeing this one in theaters for a while. For Imaginary, we are looking at an opening Th+F of $3.52M. If these numbers hold though, Kung Fu Panda 4 will get to a $55M 3-day weekend while Imaginary will only think of a $9.5M opening. Not only is this an uptick for the fan-favorite franchise, but will look great against Universal's lower than usual Dreamworks budget of $85M. Even Imaginary won't be losing too much against its $10M pricetag. Two weekends into March and we're already on a roll, let's keep it up next week with...Arthur the King. Jeez.

I have taken some suggestions to help make this post better. Please comment if you have anymore!

TL;DR:

Kung Fu Panda 4:

Thursday: $4.63M

Friday: $13.54M

Opening Day: $18.17M

Imaginary:

Thursday: $.72M

Friday: $2.83M

Opening Day: $3.52M