LobbyTools Policy Briefing 10/7/2022

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Hurricane Ian

Why People Stay to Ride Out Hurricanes: Lack of Info or Lack of Trust?

As officials started to get questions this week about whether Fort Myers area residents – especially those on barrier islands and along the coast – were adequately warned about the dangers of Hurricane Ian, some officials said residents were – but chose not to get out of the way of the storm because of lack of trust in institutions, both government and the media. "It is easy to second guess (local officials) but they informed people and most people didn't want to" evacuate, Gov. Ron DeSantis said. "That is just the reality." Lee County Commission Chairman Cecil Pendergrass echoed the governor, saying large numbers of people simply no longer believe government or media reports, and refuse to listen to, or to heed them. "People chose to stay," Pendergrass said. "This is so unfortunate. We've seen this throughout the years. Throughout the country. People do not listen to the warnings from the media and the local officials. They made that choice." CNN

Why They Stay II: For some people, especially those without adequate economic means, evacuation isn't so simple. Some can't go because of perceived work responsibilities. Others worry about the cost of evacuating, leaving them to wait until the last minute – and then there’s little to no availability of affordable hotel rooms. They may consider whether the danger outweighs the economic impact of leaving – especially if they've evacuated before and the storm turned out not to be so bad. "When you go through that cycle once or twice, you're more skeptical," one expert said. "There's a sense of storm fatigue. You tend to wait and see." NPR / PBS

Most Homes in Ian-Hit Areas Didn't Have Flood Insurance

Most of the Florida homes that were in the path of Hurricane Ian didn't have flood insurance. In counties where there were evacuation orders ahead of the storm, fewer than 20% of homes had coverage through the National Flood Insurance Program, according to Milliman, an actuarial firm that works with the program. New York Times / Insurance Journal / Politico / Marketplace

Hurricane Ian Has Exacerbated Housing Crisis

Some experts say there already wasn't enough housing stock in Florida. The damage to homes, and especially to apartment buildings, caused by Hurricane Ian is exacerbating an already urgent housing crisis in the state, leaving thousands of more residents now looking for a place to live in what has recently been one of the most expensive housing markets in the country. "It's a tragedy for them and it's also a tragedy for the entire community, which has already been suffering from not having people able to live where they work," said Jamie Ross, president and CEO of the Florida Housing Coalition. "We were already in a crisis before Ian came along." The coalition estimated earlier this year that before the storm, Florida had a statewide deficit of 500,000 homes affordable to lower- and middle-income families. Washington Post

Some Prep Money Still in Bank

As Hurricane Ian wreaked havoc on parts of Florida, more than $2 billion sent by the federal government to the state to help it improve its ability to mitigate damage from hurricanes, floods and other disasters since 2012 has gone unspent. E&E News reported this week that the state has only spent $1 billion of the $3.7 billion it has received in that time from Congress and FEMA for disaster prep. E&E News

Biden, DeSantis Pledge Bipartisan Effort for Ian Relief

President Joe Biden toured areas hit by Hurricane Ian in a visit Wednesday to Fort Myers and said it could take years for the area to fully recover from the storm's effects, while praising the response of federal, state and local government officials. Biden, who appeared at a joint press conference with Gov. Ron DeSantis, also announced Wednesday that the federal government will pick up the bill for costs associated with debris removal, search and rescue, sheltering, feeding, and other emergency measures for 60 days, twice as long as the White House had initially announced in its major disaster declaration. Associated Press / Reuters / Naples Daily News / Politico / Miami Herald / Washington Post / New York Times / Spectrum News 13 / Biden Remarks / C-Span Video

Powering On: Florida Power & Light had by the end of this week restored electric power to more than 90% of customers in the state who lost power because of Hurricane Ian. Daily Energy Insider

School Recovery: This was supposed to be a normal year after two years of COVID. Now schools in Florida are dealing with the aftermath of Hurricane Ian. Some remain closed, and officials aren’t sure when they’ll open. K-12 Dive / Department of Education K-12 Closures and Re-Opening Dates

Forgotten Communities?: Some people in the historically African American neighborhood of Dunbar in Fort Myers say they worry they'll be forgotten as the city cleans up from Hurricane Ian. They fear that officials will be focused on restoring affluent areas near the beach that are home to people with more resources and that draw tourists. USA Today / NPR / Capital B News

First Lady: Gov. Ron DeSantis' wife Casey has taken a high profile role in the relief effort after Hurricane Ian, including leading a state effort to raise money for assistance. New York Times

Stay or Go?: Florida residents weigh whether to remain in the state given a newly stoked concern about hurricanes, or to consider moving. Axios Tampa Bay

Fly or Drive?: Southwest Florida International Airport will reopen and resume normal flight operations on Tuesday, Oct. 11. News-Press

Economy and the Budget

LBC to Take Up Ian Assistance Money

Legislative leaders called an emergency meeting for next week aiming to free up funds for Hurricane Ian recovery efforts. The Joint Legislative Budget Commission is slated to meet Wednesday, Oct. 12, to approve the transfer of $360 million to the state's Emergency Preparedness and Response Fund, which was created earlier this year and currently has a balance of $500 million. A portion of the additional money will be used to support $50 million in the Emergency Bridge Loan Program developed to assist small businesses and agricultural producers. According to state economists, Florida has built up more than $17 billion in reserves over the last two years. The state's healthy reserves were in part provided by federal pandemic relief dollars, coupled with a strong economic recovery following COVID-19 lockdowns. Legislative Leadership Press Release / LBC Committee Packet / Florida Politics / LobbyTools Calendar

DeSantis: State Will Spend What it Takes to Help Region Recover

Gov. Ron DeSantis said he'll use state money to cover out-of-state utility crews to get the energy grid back up and running as quickly as possible in Southwest Florida, and that the state has hired an engineering firm to help get the water infrastructure fixed as quickly as possible. DeSantis also announced that in addition to a temporary bridge to restore vehicle traffic to the battered community of Pine Island, the state will also build one to reach Sanibel Island, where a section of the causeway was washed away. Miami Herald

Local Projects in Limbo After Deadline Passes for Gov to Release Money

Gov. Ron DeSantis didn't submit a required budget amendment by the deadline to distribute $175 million to agencies for local projects around the state. The spending was approved last month by the Legislative Budget Commission and is earmarked for 238 local projects that weren't included in the final 2022-23 state budget. DeSantis had to submit a budget amendment by Sept. 30 for the money to be released, but the deadline came and went with no budget amendment from the governor, essentially putting a hold on the distribution of the funds. The governor's office hasn't commented on the reason for the decision not to submit the amendment, though the deadline came during a state of emergency for Hurricane Ian. The money now returns to state accounts. The Legislative Budget Commission is expected to meet again next week to approve another lump sum worth $360 million to help the state recover from Ian. Florida Politics / Tampa Bay Times

August Tax Collections Beat Forecast

Florida's general revenue collections for August were $20.4 million, or 0.6 percent, higher than an earlier estimate, according to state economists at the Office of Economic and Demographic Research. The state collected nearly $3.44 billion in net general revenue, exceeding a projection made Aug. 16 by the state's Revenue Estimating Conference. The higher tax collections were mainly fueled by insurance taxes and documentary stamp taxes, with insurance taxes totaling $28.8 million, or 22.3 percent, above projections. Sales tax collections were $22.4 million less than originally estimated. The report also noted that consumer personal savings decreased to 3.5 percent in August, down from 5 percent in June and July. EDR Summary / EDR Detailed Report

Insurance

Insurance Industry Disagreement on CAT Fund

Insurance industry officials and analysts disagree about whether the Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund's surplus will be enough to cover Ian losses and what its financial situation would mean for the industry as a whole. A spokesperson for the CAT fund, a state-backed reinsurer for Florida property insurance companies, said the program "is in a strong financial position," with liquid resources of more than $16 billion and a bonding capacity of $8 billion. Some industry officials have said that a special session of the Florida Legislature may be needed to expand the CAT fund before 2023 reinsurance renewal deadlines. Insurance Journal

Premium Effect: Hurricane Ian is likely to affect commercial and personal property rates "significantly" in markets in coastal states, predicted MarketScout. Insurance Journal

Agriculture

Ian May Put Squeeze on Citrus Crop

The damage from Hurricane Ian was bad for Florida's citrus growers. Ian caused damage in four of Florida's five largest citrus-producing counties: DeSoto, Highlands, Hardee and Polk. The storm was "certainly not a death sentence to the industry," said Ray Royce, executive director of the Highlands' growers group. But, he says, "It's another setback, and I am not trying to sugarcoat it." Bloomberg via Insurance Journal

Education

Moms for Liberty Pushing School Board Candidates on Parental Rights

The populist parent advocacy group Moms for Liberty, which has called for book bans and pushed back against certain equity moves in schools around the country, is asking school board candidates to sign a pledge to uphold parental rights if elected. Education Week

Miami’s Big: Miami-Dade County's school system is now the third largest in the country, though it's mostly because Chicago's system has lost students. K-12 Dive

Higher Ed

Nebraska Senator Expected to Be Next UF President

A Republican U.S. senator from Nebraska is the top pick to be the University of Florida's next leader after being unanimously recommended by the school's presidential search committee. Ben Sasse was the sole finalist to be considered by the university's board of trustees. Sasse earned a Ph.D. from Yale University and served as president of Midland University for five years. He was elected to the United States Senate in 2014 but is expected to resign to accept the position as the University of Florida's 13th president. The college's current president, Dr. Kent Fuchs, announced his resignation in January after eight years on the job. The next steps in the search process include a public forum for students, faculty and staff to attend, followed by an interview with the institution's board of trustees which is scheduled for Nov. 1. Higher Ed Dive / Associated Press / Tampa Bay Times / Miami Herald / Gainesville Sun / Roll Call / Politico / USA Today / Florida Politics / WFLA / Axios / Forbes / Omaha World-Herald / UF Press Release

Health Care

Mental Health Hotline Calls Increase

The Crisis Center of Tampa Bay, which manages the 211 social services hotline and 988 suicide prevention lifeline for Hillsborough and Charlotte counties, experienced more than triple its yearly average of calls in just one week following Hurricane Ian's landfall. The center responded to 1,700 calls from residents in Charlotte County between Sept. 26 and Oct. 2. On average, the center receives about 500 calls per year from Charlotte County. Although staff said most calls were about basic needs, such as food and shelter, officials expect calls from Charlotte County residents to continue to increase over the next few weeks. In Hillsborough County, calls decreased as Floridians prepared for the storm but late last week the center reported it took 106 suicide calls from the Tampa area. WUSF

Norwegian Lines Drops Mask, Vax Requirements

Norwegian Cruise Lines is no longer requiring travelers to wear masks, show proof of vaccination or test negative for COVID-19. Although Norwegian is the first of the major cruise lines to end its testing requirements for unvaccinated passengers, guests are still subject to local travel requirements implemented by each country. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention suspended its voluntary COVID-19 guidelines set for cruise ships in July. Norwegian's ships have seen a 17% rise in occupancy rates from the first quarter to the second quarter this year. "Many travelers have been patiently waiting to take their long-awaited vacation at sea and we cannot wait to celebrate their return," said Norwegian president and CEO Harry Sommer. USA Today / Forbes / Fox News / Reuters / Sun Sentinel / WFTV

Gender-Affirming Care Rule Delayed

Health regulators have postponed making changes to the standard of care guidelines for the treatment of gender dysphoria, most likely moving drafting of any proposed rules to after the general election. A four-hour-long workshop with the Florida Board of Medicine and the Florida Board of Osteopathic Medicine was canceled last week due to Hurricane Ian. Members were slated to hear from the public. In August, the state Department of Health began rulemaking, requesting the Board of Medicine create rules "due to the lack of quality evidence regarding the effectiveness of such treatments for gender dysphoria and to provide guidance to the medical community and protect health, safety and welfare of Floridians." The state's petition argues it is unsafe for people under 18 to be prescribed puberty-blocking medications, undergo hormone therapy or receive gender reassignment surgery. The petition also asks the board to change the standard of care rules to require older patients to sign a consent form and to wait 24 hours before starting such treatments. Florida Politics

Courts and Legal Policy

Trial in Warren Suspension Set for Late November

A trial date has been set in former Hillsborough County state prosecutor Andrew Warren's legal battle against Gov. Ron DeSantis' decision to suspend him from office in August. Last month, U.S. District Judge Robert Hinkle denied a motion by Warren seeking reinstatement pending the outcome of the case in federal court. DeSantis suspended Warren for signing pledges not to file criminal charges against women who seek abortions or abortion providers, or people seeking gender transition treatments. The trial is scheduled to begin on Nov. 29. Another potential trial in the Senate could also happen, but rules prevent the process from taking place while any lawsuit over the suspension is active. Florida Politics

Scotus Could Decide on Fla Social Media Moderation Law

As the United States Supreme Court starts its new term, Florida is asking the justices to reinstate the state's 2021 law proscribing how social media companies can moderate their content in a bid to counter what Gov. Ron DeSantis argues is excessive censorship of conservative viewpoints on the platforms. The law, passed in 2021 as SB 7072, was immediately challenged in federal court and blocked by a district court judge from taking effect. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the 11th Circuit then left much of that injunction in place, finding that the law would violate social media companies' First Amendment right to decide what speech is expressed on their platforms. The measure requires that companies use the same criteria across their platforms when deciding to take down a post or remove an account, and prohibits them from removing the account of political candidates in Florida, or of any "journalistic enterprise." The 11th Circuit's ruling conflicts with a ruling in a separate appeals court, the 5th Circuit, that allowed a similar Texas law to be enforced. The case is Moody v. NetChoice, LLC. ScotusBlog / Florida Petition / Scotus Docket

Public Safety

FreeFall Death: A drop tower ride at ICON Park in Orlando will be permanently closed and torn down following the death of a teenager who fell from the ride earlier this year. In March, 14-year-old Tyre Sampson fell from the 430-foot tall "Orlando FreeFall" ride. The ride has been closed since the incident and an investigation found that the ride operator manually adjusted safety features for Sampson to fit in the harness. Orlando Sentinel / CNN / WESH / WKMG / USA Today

Immigration

More Disclosed About Migrant Flights to Massachusetts

More details have come to light about the flights paid for by Florida to take Venezuelan migrants from Texas to Massachusetts, and the woman who persuaded the people to take the offer to go to Martha's Vineyard. New York Times

Election Law and Process

Officials Scramble to Prep for Election in Wake of Storm

Elections officials were able to get mail-in ballots out by a deadline this past week in Florida despite widespread destruction from Hurricane Ian. Still, concerns remain, including whether all those ballots will reach voters - some of whom may not have habitable houses now. NPR / Politico / New York Times

Illegal Voting: State investigators are being asked to decide whether nine convicted sex offenders determined by the Alachua County supervisor of elections to have voted illegally in the 2020 general election will be charged. Gainesville Sun

Campaigns and Elections

Ian Could Affect Turnout

Hurricane Ian and the ongoing recovery from the storm could affect voter turnout next month in four reliably Republican Southwest Florida counties. USA Today Network

Miami-Dade Congressional Race is Competitive, Costly

The state's 27th Congressional District may turn out to be one of the most competitive and costliest races in South Florida. CD 27 covers a large part of Miami-Dade County and as of Monday, campaigns and political committees have spent over $3.1 million on the race. Republican candidate Maria Salazar is facing former Democratic state Sen. Annette Taddeo. The next costliest race – totaling $834,000 – was in CD 23 where Broward County Commissioner Jared Moskowitz is running against Republican Joe Budd to replace Democratic U.S. Rep. Ted Deutch. Florida Politics

New Polling Data

DeSantis Leads Crist in Mason-Dixon Poll

Gov. Ron DeSantis holds a lead over former Gov. Charlie Crist in polling in the governor's race. New poll numbers also show Republicans could be in position to sweep the races for seats on the independently elected state Cabinet. USA Today Network / Orlando Sentinel / Florida Politics / The Hill

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