Overnight/US Premarket, Asian markets finished mixed, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 4.10% and China’s Shanghai Composite rose 2.13%. Japan's Nikkei 225 lost 0.06%.
European markets finished mixed, London's FTSE 100 gained 0.17% and Germany's DAX was up 0.13%. France’s CAC 40 lost 0.07%. S&P futures opened trading at 0.01% above fair value.
Today US Markets finished higher, the NASDAQ gained 0.61%, the S&P 500 was up 0.28% and the DOW rose 0.08%. 6 of 11 S&P 500 sectors declining: Materials +1.76%, outperforms/ Real Estate -0.74% lags. On the upside, NYSE Fang+, Metals & Mining, Containers & Packaging, Semiconductors, Semiconductor ETF ^SOXX, US Treasuries, Gold Futures, Bitcoin, Oil, Bloomberg Commodity Index.
In US economic news, Case Shiller Home Prices increased for the month while Consumer Confidence beat expectations reaching its highest level in 24 months.
- Hong Kong >4.0% Index rally on Politburo release
- Consumer Confidence reaches highest level in 24 months
- NASDAQ leads majors, gains 0.61%, NYSE Fang+ 0.93%
- 6 of 11 S&P 500 sectors declining: Materials +1.76% outperforms/ Real Estate -0.74% and Financials -0.73% lag
- Metals & Mining+3.04%, Containers & Packaging+2.91%
- Semiconductor ETF ^SOXX +1.68%
- US Treasuries yields rise
- Gold Futures and Bitcoin moderately up
- Oil Prices and Bloomberg Commodity Index continue to rise on hike expectations
- >40% of SP500 companies report earnings this week
- Alphabet (GOOG/ GOOGL), General Electric (GE) with w/ solid earnings beats
- Visa A (V), Verizon (VZ) w/ earning misses
- Markets await Fed .25-point July hike tomorrow
Pro Tip: 5-day average put/call ratio. When the ratio of puts to calls is rising, it is usually a sign that investors are growing cautious. A ratio below 1 is considered optimistic, and or bullish.
Sectors/ Commodities/ Treasuries
Key Indexes (5d, 20d, 50d, 100d, 200d)
- 6 of 11 S&P 500 sectors declining: Materials +1.76%, Information Technology +1.19% outperforms/ Real Estate -0.74%, Financials -0.73% lag.
- Industrial Conglomerates +3.42%, Metals & Mining+3.04%, Containers & Packaging+2.91%, Semiconductor & Semiconductor Equipment+1.91%, Chemicals+1.47%, Software +1.27%, Real Estate Management & Development+1.20%, Independent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers+1.16%.
Q2 ’23 Top Line Earnings Preview
- In Q1 ’23: 79% of companies beat analyst estimates by an average of 6.5%
- Q2 S&P 500 EPS expected to decline <7.2%>/ Fiscal year 2023 EPS flat YoY
- Expect lower Q1 revenues
- Call topics: economic uncertainty, aggregate demand, inventories, costs, roi
- >17% of S&P 500 names have reported, 40% more will release earnings this week.
- To date BIG picture, credit resilience, deposit stabilization, travel demand
- Technology sector, mega caps reporting META, MSFT, GOOGL
- +Beat: Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG/ GOOGL), Texas Instruments (TXN), Danaher (DHR), NextEra Energy (NEE),General Electric (GE), Rtx Corp (RTX), Sherwin-Williams (SHW), Moody’s (MCO), 3M (MMM), General Motors (GM), PACCAR (PCAR), MSCI (MSCI), Biogen (BIIB), Dow (DOW), GE HealthCare (GEHC), PulteGroup (PHM), TransUnion (TRU), Lamb Weston Holdings (LW), Albertsons (ACI), Manhattan Associates (MANH), Logitech (LOGI), Ares Capital (ARCC), EastGroup Properties (EGP), Polaris Industries (PII), Sensata Tech (ST), Alaska Air (ALK), Old National Bancorp (ONB), GATX (GATX), PJT Partners Inc (PJT), Teladoc Inc (TDOC), Snap (SNAP)
- - Miss: Visa A (V), Verizon (VZ), Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM), CoStar (CSGP), Kimberly-Clark (KMB), DSV ADR (DSDVY), Corning (GLW), Spotify Tech (SPOT), NVR (NVR), Dover (DOV), Akzo Nobel ADR (AKZOY), Avery Dennison (AVY), GAP ADR (PAC), Robert Half (RHI), Invesco (IVZ), Iridium (IRDM), Nextera Energy Partners LP (NEP), Asbury Automotive (ABG), Mueller Industries (MLI), Franklin Electric (FELE), Life Time Holdings (LTH), Site Centers (SITC), Simmons First National (SFNC), Nextier Oilfield Solutions (NEX)
- S&P Case-Shiller home price index: period May, act -1.7%, fc -1.9%, prior -1.7%
- Consumer confidence: period July, act 117.0, fc 112.0, prior 110.1
Vica Partner Guidance July ’23, (updated 7-20)
- Q3/4 highlighting Energy Equipment & Services, Banks, Passenger Airlines, Metals & Mining. Real Estate Management & Development, Specialized REITs. Defensives Health Care Providers & Services and Gas Utilities also have upside. Undervaluation for Chinese Mega Cap Tech. Japan equities still a better value than US.
- Cautionary, current valuations in question as Mega and Large Cap Growth moderating, Banks shortly may be overpricing. Current indicators are recessionary. Credit default swap (CDS) to pick-up through Q4/Q1.
- Longer Term, Nasdaq 100^NDX companies will continue to outperform in the longer term along with Semiconductor Equipment. Forward looking CAGR growth below.
- We continue to emphasize business *quality and strength of balance sheet for all investments. * Strong support – NVIDIA (NVDA), Meta Platforms (META), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Tesla (TSLA), Taiwan Semi (TSM), ASML Holding NV (ASML), Broadcom (AVGO).
- TikTok Wants to Sell Made-in-China Goods to Americans - WSJ
- Tesla and GM Sold More Cars. Only One Made More Money - Bloomberg
- Banc of California Agrees to Buy PacWest as Regional Lenders Seek Strength Together - WSJ
- At Spotify, Podcast Cuts and Higher Music Royalties Deepen Losses - WSJ
- Vale Nears Deal to Sell 10% of Its Base Metals Business to Saudi Arabia - WSJ
- South Africa Moves Closer to Building Port for Hydrogen Exports - Bloomberg
Central Banks/Inflation/Labor Market
- IMF Lifts World GDP Outlook on US Stability But Risks Linger - Bloomberg
- How Financial Crises Shaped the Federal Reserve - WSJ video
- Bank Regulators Urge Flexibility in Commercial Real-Estate Loan Workouts as Defaults Grow - WSJ
- China’s first US$1 trillion tech firm? Beijing’s top leaders offer fresh backing to country’s Big Tech sector amid uneven economic recovery - South China Morning Post
Next Trend Realty LLC./wwwHar.com/Chester-Swanson/agent_cbswan
1yThanks for the updates on, The Journal.