Mission Zero: No surprises, we are not on course for success by 2050

In 2050 my son will be 41 years old. Here he is in front of a power station, some years ago, that used to produce low carbon electricity (we have fun holidays). Decisions and actions we take today will have a material and significant impact on the world he will be living in. What we build, how fast we build it and how we pay for it are more critical decisions than ever. Are we on the right track?

The Mission Zero report on Chris Skidmore’s independent review of progress towards Net Zero is a remarkably thorough analysis of where we stand in our national effort to comply with the legally binding commitment to reach Net Zero by 2050. It is not comfortable reading.

The 300 plus page report, backed up by 785 source references, is wide ranging. It makes 129 recommendations for government action including 25 key actions needed by 2025. It also identifies a number of sectoral system roadmaps and action plans needed by the end of 2023.

Part 1 of the report sets out seven broad conclusions. The first six are a reaffirmation that Net Zero is a justified and indeed essential policy goal. It is clear that the foundation of our future economic prosperity must be a reliable and affordable low carbon energy system – without this all bets are off. The seventh conclusion is that we are not on track to achieve that Net Zero system by 2050 and significant additional government action is urgently required.

Part 2 of the report details progress and obstacles to acceleration of Net Zero across the economy. It identifies many cross-cutting issues grouped into six ‘Pillars’. Pillar 1 addresses barriers to mobilising the huge private sector investment required for Net Zero and calls on government to provide Continuity, Certainty, Consistency and Clarity in policy, regulation and business environment. It recognises that a systems approach is essential and calls for the creation of an ‘Office for Net Zero Delivery’ (ONZD) in spring 2023, with a mandate to improve cross government co-ordination. Pillar 2 addresses ‘Powering Net Zero’, Pillars 3 to 6 are not addressed in this short commentary.

Pillar 2 recognises that the recent energy crisis has driven a paradigm shift in energy policy. After years in which sustainability and affordability have been the dominant legs of the energy trilemma, attention has now shifted to security of supply. At the same time generation costs of renewable power are falling while the cost of gas has soared, making the economic case for renewables much stronger.

For system planning, LCOE (levelised cost of electricity) is not the best comparator between different technologies.  Whole system cost should be used when planning our future system. The report’s emphasis on LCOE and its insufficient recognition of the necessity of system wide cost analysis is a significant area for improvement. In the UK the balancing costs of our electricity system continue to increase year on year. From January to October 2022 this cost £3.2 billion, 21% higher than in 2021 and 168% higher than in 2019. Whole system costs are material and significant and should be included in considering what we build and what fuel and interconnection we should rely on, along with the connecting infrastructure required.

The report concludes that UK should ‘double down’ on generation from renewables, nuclear and other low carbon sources and on production of hydrogen to ensure that UK has a secure ‘homegrown’ energy system (being technologies less open to deleterious impact from geopolitical tensions). It recognises the many constraints holding back acceleration of the transition and recommends that government should:

·      By autumn 2023 undertake a critical supply chain analysis for Net Zero technologies and infrastructure.

·      By 2025 develop a long-term infrastructure strategy covering transmission and distribution of liquid and gaseous fuels, electricity and CO2.

·      Rethink our approach to electricity networks to allow anticipatory investment ahead of need and accelerate Holistic Network Design.

·      In 2023 develop a roadmap for deployment of solar power to reach 70GW by 2035.

·      In 2023 develop a roadmap for deployment of onshore wind to ‘required levels’ by 2035.

·      In 2023 expedite establishment of Great British Nuclear and set out a clear roadmap for nuclear deployment to 2050, deliver a nuclear siting strategy in 2024.

·      By 2024 set out a strategy for ensuring electricity system supply side flexibility including pathways for different technologies to 2035. Address long duration storage, interconnectors, dispatchable power (gas with CCUS).

·      In 2023 develop a ’10 year’ delivery roadmap for scaling up hydrogen production and update analysis of whole system costs of mass roll out of hydrogen for heating.

·      In 2023 re-envisage and implement a clear roadmap for CCUS beyond 2030 and set out funding envelope for Track-1 CCUS clusters. By 2024 develop strategy and plan for non-pipeline transport of CO2. Legislate ASAP for business models and regulation of CCUS.

This daunting list of strategies, roadmaps and plans simply cannot be delivered as individual ‘stand-alone’ documents, the interdependencies are obvious. To be of value these roadmaps, plans, and strategies must be based on realistic engineering risk-based assessment of deliverability.

Two examples drawn from the report are:

·      Infrastructure: the report has correctly highlighted that infrastructure is absolutely critical to delivery of many Net Zero projects. Several contributors to the report commented that the long waiting times for grid connection (up to six years was quoted in one case) effectively restrict investment in new generation. The report quotes National Grid’s assertion that, to support the government target of 50GW of offshore wind by 2030, in the next eight years it will have to install more than six times the amount of transmission infrastructure that it has installed in the last 30 years. An increase of 2250% in the annual deployment rate. This is a critical obstacle to progress.

·      Storage: many have previously highlighted energy storage as a major uncertainty in plans for an electricity system with a very high dependency on renewables. The report strongly advances the case for renewables but does not adequately address the implications for storage. The report cites National Grid ESO’s Future Energy Scenarios assessment of a system with 98% clean power requiring energy storage of 30GW (130GWh) by 2030. ESO suggests that this could include pumped storage hydro of 5GW (65GWh). The current UK pumped storage capacity is 2.4GW (26GWh) provided by four plants, the largest of which is Dinorwig in North Wales which took ten years to build and has a capacity of 1.8GW and 9.1GWh. Pumped hydro is a proven technology but there are relatively few suitable sites, environmental issues can be significant as can the upfront capital expenditure. It is challenging at our current pace that significant new pumped storage capacity could be on-line by 2030 and suitable projects need rapid support and deployment to be of value. Other long duration energy storage solutions are yet to be available at this scale to fill the gap, and there is a big gap to fill.

The report concludes that there is now an international race towards Net Zero. A race in which countries are competing for incoming investment, technological advantage and export opportunity. To succeed in this international contest the report suggests that the UK must reappraise its approach to Net Zero. UK must avoid piecemeal projects and develop strategies, each of which will provide a long-term predictable programme of work that will encourage investment, support supply chain and skills development and provide direction for R&D to develop new technology.

It is suggested that this can be achieved by focusing on a series of ten ‘missions’ delivered over the period 2025 to 2035. Five of the ‘missions’ relate directly to our interest of Engineering the Net Zero system. These are: Grid and infrastructure, Solar, Onshore wind, Nuclear, and Energy intensive Industry. We should support the call for focussed ten-year missions but reiterate that these must be in the context of an overarching strategy.

Such a wide-ranging report with a huge amount of detail inevitably presents many points of view with which particular interest groups might disagree. However, few objective observers would disagree with the central themes. Net Zero defines a new epoch, a successful economy will depend on efficiently delivering a secure net zero energy system, the UK is not doing enough to deliver its ambition for Net Zero, government is not providing the certainty, continuity, clarity and consistency that can mobilise the required investment at pace. We need a reset of our strategy, accept the need for system architecture, let system needs drive markets and not expect markets to deliver complex systems.

It's an obvious statement that it is extremely hard to predict what the world will look like in 2050 and what our energy system will look like, although it is possible to find very, very many predictions. What is plain to see is that we are not building, replacing and repairing our energy system fast enough. My son, and many others, will likely look back on these days as the lost decades of progress if we don't start accelerating rapidly and building a fully integrated working and reliable system, rather than a collection of bits.

Energy security, affordability and sustainability are all critical to economic prosperity.

#EngineeringNetZero