Morning Update 9/16/16

Energies are mixed--with crude oil and ULSD lower - but RB higher as the Colonial pipeline is not seen restarting until next week due to the worst spill on the line in 20 years (Reuters). Some gasoline is being shipped thru a distillate line on the Colonial system and some gasoline is being moved by tanker from the Gulf Coast to the East Coast (Reuters). Add to this the fact that BP is cutting output on its large CDU by 50 % this weekend - as well as another part of the refinery being shut for planned maintenance that is to last until early Nov. (Reuters). The crude oil is further being deflated by the supposed resumption of exports from Libya - they are opening several shut export terminals and resuming output from one field in particular that had been shut since Nov,2015--this field has a capacity of 25-30,000 bpd (Reuters). This together with the expected resumption of exports from Nigeria is also weighing on Crude oil.

Technically, crude oil and ULSD look soft - both trading below their DC mid-Bollingers and pointing lower via their momentum. RB has a different look though RB points higher via its momentum - and is trading well above its mid-Bollinger. It is also trading at the highest flat price level since the expiration of the summer grade September contract - as well the front month spread is trading at its highest level ever - having gained 400 pts since Wednesday's expiration, flirting with previous DC front month spread congestion in the 720-730 area. It looks like the next best level above that is the 815-820 area. Flat price RB has support at 14155-70 then 14010-25--resistance above is seen at 14675-86, then 14815-20

WTI has broken the low of 4300 seen the first of the month with next best support below at 4242-50 then 4208-16. Resistance is seen at the high of this session at the 4369-77 level (the high is 4375). The one potential positive for WTI is the waning momentum to the downside in the Dec 16/Dec 17 spread--with yesterday's low being 502--where the lower Bollinger band lies

ULSD seems framed by the highs and lows of the previous 2 sessions -support coming at 13790-13800 and resistance at 14255-70

Nat Gas is down 4 cts today - with today being the 5 consecutive session with a high over 2.90. We suggested Tuesday that this trading range was possible - and this week's trading has underscored this; continued above average temps on the east Coast in the foreseeable future lends support

below - but momentum is waning for the upside move - hence sustained values over 2.90 may be harder to sustain. Resistance lies at 2942-2945--support below is seen at 2842-44. The EIA data came in as expected with a build of 62 bcf

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