NATURAL GAS UPDATE - Farewell Edition

Since my last update below, more seasonal Dec weather has resulted in 3 substantial gas storage withdrawals of -69, -182 and -112 bcf. Those have reduced out national inventory to 3332 bcf which is still about 83% of operational capacity. But that figure represents a (144) deficit to the 5-year average at this still early point, in the 5 month winter heating season. And with below normal temps forecasted for at least another week and well-head freeze-offs already being reported in some shale fields, supply’s advantage over demand has faded a bit. So the downward pressure that has been on gas pricing for most of this year might be letting up.

 

The Jan NYMEX contract expired Wed at $.274 per therm ($2.738 per dekatherm). In 2016, the Jan contract closed lower at an incredible $.237. But other than that, you would have to go way back to 2002 to find a lower Jan settlement.

 

Now Feb is the prompt month and it is trading up around $.301 with Mar not far behind at $.296. The 7 months of next summer average $.281 and the winter after that averages $.301. And forward pipeline Basis remains a tremendous value. Looking at the calendar year NYMEX strips, 2019 trades at $.282 while 2020 is at $.286 and 2021 is at $.289. So as you can see, the backwardation that opportunists were acting upon in recent months has shifted back to a more normal contango curve.

 

As for crude oil, a recent pipeline explosion in Libya has caused international Brent to jump up above $67 per barrel. And as predicted, WTI domestic has reached the $60 plateau for the first time in 30 months. Now both markets remain strong as we enter a new year.

 

Consumer spending makes up about 70% of US economic activity and a huge portion of that shopping takes place in the month before (and the month after) Christmas. So far retail sales are up 5% this holiday season compared to last. There appears to be no end in sight to the high consumer confidence that prevails. And that extends to the housing market too where strong demand and limited supply has boosted average sale pricing 6% higher than last year.

 

Anyone who has ever parachuted out of an airplane will tell you that you have to concentrate on the horizon, instead of the ground directly beneath you. Otherwise your hips will get pushed straight up into your shoulders at impact. Well the analogy here is that my final month on the job started out with great intentions. But with the 31st approaching all too quickly, I find myself trying hopelessly to load 10 pounds into a 5-pound box. So if I did not properly transition your gas account(s), I apologize. Certainly the recent utility data problems, our associated billing problems and the introduction of our new Energy Manager website have complicated things. But you can count on the outstanding folks who are taking over for me to get everything squared away for you soon. 

 

Thanks for allowing me to serve your energy needs during some or all of the past 28.5 years. Despite some painful market volatility from time to time, it’s been a good ride and I got a chance to work with a lot of great people along the way. It will probably take me at least a month to decompress (10 days of which will be spent with my whole family on Grand Cayman in mid Jan). Then it will be the annual 8-man Florida golf trip during the first week of Mar. And of course my golf leagues and hardball league will begin again in Apr. So I plan to remain physically active. 

 

But there is more to retirement than just sports. Although I was of age during the later stages of the war in Viet Nam, I was not called upon to serve in the military. And even though I salute and say THANK YOU to all those who did serve in that war (and all other wars before and after), that is not enough. So I am looking forward to volunteering with the Disabled American Vets and Wounded Warrior organizations. I definitely owe those guys.       

 

Well, this is it. Off into the sunset I go. But I hope to stay in touch with my customers and my comrades, many of which have become good friends. My personal email address is rayshannon262@gmail.com and my cell phone is 262-506-4030. Please let me know if you are in my neighborhood and have time for a drink… or want to meet at a ball park… or on a golf course.

 

Thanks again and best wishes for 2018 and beyond.

-Ray

 

Ray Shannon

Senior Business Development Manager

CONSTELLATION ENERGY

 

 

N21 W23340 Ridgeview Parkway

Waukesha, WI 53188

Office: 262-506-6613

Mobile: 262-506-4030

Email: ray.shannon@constellation.com

Customer service is my top priority, please rate your service experience with me.

 

I can help you with:

 

 

 

 

From: Shannon, Ray A:(Constellation)

Sent: Wednesday, December 13, 2017 10:16 AM

To: Info.IL – CNE Gas Illinois info <il.info@constellation.com>

Subject: RE: NATURAL GAS UPDATE

 

After another small withdrawal of -33 bcf was reported by the EIA on 11/30, a tiny injection of +2 was actually reported on 12/7. So our national inventory stood at 3695 at that point. And that was 11 below the 5-year average. But a more significant withdrawal in the -60 vicinity is expected tomorrow. Yet despite some seasonably cold weather in the eastern half of the country, gas pricing continues to retreat as strong production figures are allowing supply to over-rule demand.

 

The Dec NYMEX contract expired 2 weeks ago at $.307 per therm ($3.074 per dekatherm) after trading much higher than that all year. Only once during the previous 15 years had it settled at a lower price and that was 2015 when it collapsed to $.220. The Jan contract has been under constant pressure here in Dec and now trades at $.272, with Feb and Mar right in that vicinity too. The summer strip is also averaging $.269 while next winter is available at $.294. Calendar 2018 has dropped to $.273 (after remaining above $.300 all year), while 2019 trades at $.278. These are truly amazing times for natural gas end-users seeking good deals.

 

But at almost $58 per barrel (and with $60 clearly in sight), the market for WTI domestic crude oil remains much more bullish. OPEC production cuts remain a big factor on the supply side, while global demand for Brent crude has been steadily increasing. Yet gasoline pump prices remain relatively affordable for now.

 

With another big holiday month already approaching the half-way point, the nomination process for Jan gets jump-started later this week. For any heat-loaded companies, Jan is almost always the peak consumption month of the year. It is also a big month for withdrawals from storage. But because some of the coldest days of the year are likely, there is potential for utility Critical Days. Therefore, we have to be careful not to get too aggressive with those withdrawals. Because meeting your MDCQ could be very important if we have an extended period of severe cold weather… like we did in early 2014.

 

Auto sales, factory orders, new jobs and multiple indexes continue to demonstrate a strong US economy. And the stock market just keeps on setting new records as it approaches the 9-year anniversary of its incredible bull-run. In the last year alone, the DJIA is up more than 6,000 points with many stocks showing tremendous gains. Meanwhile, crypto currencies have been huge money-makers for risk tolerant investors. But be careful in that arena. Don’t invest money you need for food and rent.

 

Is it just me or does it seem that less daylight and colder temps makes it real easy to curl up on the couch and just watch TV all night. But resisting that temptation could be critical to your health and well-being. And the same principles apply to your day job. Studies show that sitting at a desk (or laying on a couch) too much can kill you. So make it a habit to get up, stand, stretch and walk around every 30 to 60 minutes. And if you are nearing retirement like me, make sure you stay plenty active after you stop punching that time clock.

 

Thanks and Merry Christmas,

-Ray 

 

 

From: Shannon, Ray A:(Constellation)

Sent: Wednesday, November 22, 2017 1:22 PM

To: Info.IL – CNE Gas Illinois info

Subject: RE: NATURAL GAS UPDATE

 

An initial natural gas withdrawal of -18 bcf was reported by the EIA last week. And today the report was a much bigger than expected withdrawal of -46. So our national inventory now stands at around 3726 bcf at this early point in the traditional 5-month winter season. That is 135 below the 5-year average and therefore, worth keeping an eye on. Yet pretty soon much of the attention will begin to turn towards estimates of the final balance in early Apr, when the injection season begins.

 

After a very cold start, Nov weather has warmed up a bit and this has taken the edge off of winter pricing projections which had jumped up earlier this month. The Dec NYMEX contract is trading down around $.299 per therm ($2.99 per dekatherm). Then Jan thru Mar average about $.307. The summer strip is down at $.295 and next winter averages $.317. Budget-conscious end-users can lock in Calendar 2018 at $.301 while 2019 is available to bargain hunters at $.292 and 2020 is even more attractive at $.287.

 

WTI domestic crude oil has pushed up above $58 per barrel, as high demand is keeping supply in check. But despite the long holiday weekend now underway, gasoline pump pricing below $2.50 seems prevalent in my neck of the woods. An upcoming OPEC meeting will factor into international Brent crude pricing and indirectly impact domestic in Dec.

 

Even as automotive technology continues to make vehicles safer, fatal crashes are rising according to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. A total of 37,461 lives were lost in the US during 2016 and that was almost 6% more than 2015. Alcohol, speeding and seat belts each contributed over 10,000 deaths to that total, while distractions and drowsiness accounted for most of the rest. So until driverless technology is perfected, please be careful… especially during this super-busy weekend. 

 

And while traveling to visit family and friends is huge at Thanksgiving time, many companies consider business travel a necessity for sales growth. For those road warriors, the travel experience itself can have a big impact on their job satisfaction. Especially among millennials. 

A recent study by the Global Business Travel Association identified the most difficult aspects. In descending order they are…

Time spent in transit,

Inconvenient lay-overs,

Reservation changes,

Irregular work environment,

Expense report preparation.

 

Popular sales training guru Jeffrey Gitomer, has a special fondness for the Thanksgiving holiday. It is his favorite because of a certain genuineness that is not always present at other times of the year. Yet some companies fail to realize that their current customers constitute 100% of their sales. They spend big money trying to attract new business, while often neglecting those that allow them to pay the rent. Instead, they should be doing the everyday stuff that will make their customers think twice before leaving… and not think twice about referring. So in addition to personalized cards, letters and calls expressing heart-felt gratitude, he recommends differentiating yourself beyond just a product vendor or service provider and becoming more of a strategic partner.

 

I hope in some way I have developed a partnership with your company over the past 28.5 years. Lord knows we have been thru some amazing times, as visualized on the attached graph. So please allow me to say, THANKS FOR YOUR BUSINESS.

 

Happy Thanksgiving,

-Ray

 

 

From: Shannon, Ray A:(Constellation)

Sent: Saturday, November 11, 2017 2:59 PM

To: Info.IL – CNE Gas Illinois info

Subject: RE: NATURAL GAS UPDATE

Importance: High

 

One of the main reasons for my quick update yesterday was to salute our veterans on their day. But not until I watched VP Mike Pence give a tremendous speech at the official ceremony in Washington DC this morning, did I realize that I had forgotten to do so. So here it is… SALUTE !!!

And THANK YOU for your service !!!

 

 

From: Shannon, Ray A:(Constellation)

Sent: Friday, November 10, 2017 4:38 PM

To: Info.IL – CNE Gas Illinois info

Subject: RE: NATURAL GAS UPDATE

 

Here is a quick update to last week’s edition…

 

One more small injection of +15 bcf was reported by the EIA this week. So here we go into winter with 3790 in the tank, representing a respectable 95% of operational capacity.

 

However, despite all that inventory, the arrival of legitimate cold weather sent the NYMEX up significantly during the week. The Dec NYMEX contract is now trading up around $.322 per therm. Jan, Feb & Mar are all up around $.330. And next summer has moved up to about $.300. Calendar 2018 now averages $.310 but 2019 remains down at $.292. 

 

China Energy is the world’s largest power company. And apparently it knows a good thing when it sees one because it is investing over $80 billion in liquefied natural gas storage projects in West Virginia over the next two decades. This is the stuff that we started exporting in boatloads a year and a half ago.

 

As for crude oil, it continues to surge and now trades above $57 per barrel. Some analysts predict that a run above $60 is in the cards. And your auto trip to Grandma’s house for Thanksgiving is going to cost you more than you thought.

 

To show you just how strong the US job market is, the 4-week average for jobless claims is now at its lowest level since Mar 1973. Keep in mind that our population was 212 million back then, compared to 325 million today.

 

My beleaguered Packers travel to Chicago this Sun to take on the fired-up Bears, in what could be a very low (or maybe a surprisingly high) scoring NFL game. I don’t want to say that I am selling-out on my guys now that Rogers is gone. But I am forwarding an interesting graphic for your enjoyment.

 

Have a great weekend,

-Ray

 

 

From: Shannon, Ray A:(Constellation)

Sent: Friday, November 03, 2017 2:21 PM

To: Info.IL – CNE Gas Illinois info

Subject: RE: NATURAL GAS UPDATE

 

The EIA reported an injection of +65 bcf yesterday. The week before it was +64 and the week before that it was +51. So our national inventory stands at 3775. That is almost 95% of our operational capacity and just 15 below the 5-year average. But I expect there will be at least one more injection before the switch to withdrawals takes place. So with us sitting on all that inventory, production in the shale fields chugging along at a steady pace and global warming having reduced our winters to just a ghost of their former selves, gas pricing has nowhere to go but down… right? Be careful. As I prepare to depart after 28.5 years in the business, one thing I have learned is that just when you think you have this market all figured out it will often slap you in the face and do just the opposite.

 

The Nov NYMEX contract expired meekly last week at $.275 per therm ($2.752 per dekatherm). Last year it went out at a very similar $.276 and the year before that at an incredibly low $.203. But the 5 years prior to that averaged $.350. And the 5 years before that averaged a preposterous $.780. So take this year’s $.275 and run. 

 

Dec is now the prompt month and it is trading at $.298 per therm as the week winds down. Jan, Feb & Mar average about $.310 then the summer strip is at $.294. Calendar 2018 trades at $.299 while 2019 is at $.291. Now I have never told anyone to lock in all of their anticipated future volume at these very low forward prices. But I have definitely advised anyone who will listen to grab at least a layer of it for at least a year ahead, to make sure they don’t miss out on such a great opportunity. If I was recommending such action at pricing with a 5-handle or a 4-handle that would be one thing. But in most cases, we are now talking about fixed city-gate gas pricing with an upper 2-handle. And remember…

2-handles are your friends!!!

 

Meanwhile, crude oil is on the rise with WTI domestic now trading up above $55 per barrel. And if you have not noticed it yet, gasoline pump prices have escalated rapidly in response. But I guess as long as you can avoid 3-handles at the pump, you are still doing okay compared to just a couple years ago.

 

The US job market remains strong with another 260,000 added last month and the unemployment rate now down to 4.1%. And the Conference Board index of consumer confidence jumped up again in Oct. At 126, that benchmark is now at its highest point since Dec 2000. But don’t expect to hear too much about it from our biased news providers.

 

Thirty years ago last month, the Dow was up above 2,600 but dropped 508 points (20%+) on Oct 19. It had achieved a 330% gain during the previous 5 years. And now the Dow is up above 23,000 and has achieved an amazing 180% gain during the previous 5 years. I hope you are capitalizing on this impressive run. But I also hope you have some safe-guards in place in case it starts to deteriorate. To quote Clint Eastwood, “Do you feel lucky?”

 

With the holiday season fast approaching, the gas nomination cycles for Dec and Jan deliveries will once again get accelerated well in advance of the normal +/- 20th of the preceding month. So be thinking about that later next week already, and keep me posted on any special situations at your company.

 

Thanks and have a great weekend,

-Ray

 

PS… As a further demonstration of how time is flying, it was 50 years ago when Luke bet he could eat 50 eggs.

 

 

From: Shannon, Ray A:(Constellation)

Sent: Tuesday, October 17, 2017 8:53 AM

To: Info.IL – CNE Gas Illinois info

Subject: RE: NATURAL GAS UPDATE

 

With EIA storage injection reports of +42 bcf on Oct 5 and +87 bcf on Oct 12, our national inventory has moved up to 3595. That is 90% of operational capacity and 31 above the 5-year average. And depending on the weather, there will probably be 4 more injections before we transition to the withdrawal mode. So this substantial volume in storage plus increasing production capabilities, should have us in pretty good order for a winter that some predict will be colder than normal.

 

The Nov NYMEX contract has moved up to around $.30 per therm ($3.00 per dekatherm) after dipping into the lower $.290s yesterday. Dec trades at $.316, Jan at $.327, Feb at $.328 and Mar at $.324. Those 5 winter months combined now average $.319 and that is down from last week. Cal 2018 averages $.309 while 2019 remains significantly lower at $.292.

 

But some analysts are calling for the winter strip to eventually settle at an average price above $.335 under normal weather conditions. Because residential and commercial customers will burn significantly more than they did during the past 2 soft winters. And power generators will definitely burn more now that fewer coal plants are still in business. Meanwhile, the Federal Climate Prediction Center says there is a 65% chance that a ‘La Nina’ will develop in the Pacific Ocean during the next 2 months. And that would mean the Northeast and Midwest would experience a much colder and snowier winter than the norm.

 

So if energy is a significant cost of doing business at your company, why would you not want to have at least a portion of your estimated requirements for the coming winter locked in at the kind of nice low pricing that is available right now? That way if the market goes up, you have some protection. And if the market goes down, you still have some exposure. Going a step further, customers in Nicor territory should have filled their own storage tanks by now thereby providing another form of protection against price spikes, big invoices and utility constraints. With the nomination process for Nov gas deliveries already under way, it would be wise to review your situation this week. Call me with questions.

 

According to recent research, the S&P 500 has now gone 333 trading days without a drop of at least 5%, 425 days without a drop of at least 10% and 2,170 days without a drop of at least 20%. By comparison, since 1928 the averages for those 3 benchmarks are 50 days, 167 days and 635 days. The absence of such downside volatility is nothing short of amazing… especially considering our political environment and the global dangers we face. But freelance journalist Tom Saler says that although this market rally is one for the ages, things are too quiet. And the Retirement Millionaire newsletter is strongly suggesting proper position sizing with trailing stop orders. Meanwhile, the Wealthy Retirement newsletter cautions that unless your investment portfolio can withstand a 25% to 50% jolt, you should be holding bonds (not stocks) commensurate with your age. In other words, a sixty-year-old should have 60% of his money in bonds, while a seventy-year-old should have 70%. With my exit fast approaching, you can bet I am following that advice.  

 

Thanks and stay tuned,

-Ray

  

 

From: Shannon, Ray A:(Constellation)

Sent: Thursday, September 28, 2017 12:07 PM

To: 'Info.IL – CNE Gas Illinois info'

Subject: RE: NATURAL GAS UPDATE

 

After 2 very sizeable injections of +91 and +97 bcf, the EIA report today added a more modest +58 thereby increasing our national inventory to 3466. These significant additions have reduced the deficit against last year to -85 while increasing the surplus against the 5-year average to +75. And with demand destruction due to the active hurricane season definitely a factor, the final 6 injections before the start of the traditional winter withdrawal season could get us closer to the operationally full level than many analysts previously expected.

 

The Oct NYMEX contract expired yesterday just over $.297 per therm ($2.974 per dekatherm). It had zoomed up above $.315 last week when the ultra-hot weather began sweeping across the country. But now a brief cool-down is underway, although more above-normal temps could return next week. And even though exports via both land and sea continue to expand, gas production is churning along in an effort to cover them. So despite an initial forecast calling for a colder than normal winter ahead, with upside risks of as much as $.20 per therm ($2.00 per dekatherm), forward pricing projections still remain relatively soft.

 

The 5-month NYMEX winter strip can be secured now at about $.322 and next summer is available at about $.295. Calendar 2018 trades at $.306 while 2019 and 2020 average about $.290. And firm pipeline Basis is still very affordable. Meanwhile, crude oil remains somewhat bullish in the aftermath of the hurricanes with WTI domestic now trading around $52 per barrel.

 

The GDP is running at a brisk seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.1%. Strong spending by both businesses and consumers has our economy gaining momentum here in the third quarter. But a fourth Fed rate increase is probably going to happen by Dec so the movement of money from stocks to fixed income in 2018 is likely to accelerate, thereby applying downward pressure on both the Dow and S&P.

 

With stocks at record highs and this bull market getting long in the tooth, many investors have been thinking about exit strategies to protect their gains. And older folks that are already retired (or like me, are nearing that milepost) are especially concerned since their ability to recover from market losses will be limited. But Steve McDonald’s Wealthy Retirement newsletter cautions that switching to all cash now could have unintended outcomes. Because timing the market is difficult at best, whether you are selling out or buying back in. And cash investments never make money after inflation and taxes are accounted for. In fact they generate small annual losses that add up over time. So except for your emergency fund, he recommends remaining invested at an appropriate ratio of stocks and bonds for your age and risk tolerance.

 

Just as you should consult with your financial planner for advice on your investment portfolio, please get with me to discuss your current energy portfolio for the fast approaching winter and beyond.

 

Thanks for your business,

-Ray

 

PS… Congratulations to the Cubs on repeating as MLB Central Division champs. And good luck in the play-offs.

Meanwhile, tonight it will be the Bears and Packers at Lambeau in their 195th regular season match-up. And with both teams having won 94 of those games, the outcome will determine the leader in this ancient rivalry.   

 

 

 

From: Shannon, Ray A:(Constellation)

Sent: Friday, September 08, 2017 12:32 PM

To: 'Info.IL – CNE Gas Illinois info'

Subject: RE: NATURAL GAS UPDATE

 

Subsequent EIA storage injection reports of +30 and +65 bcf have boosted our national inventory to 3220. The surplus to the 5-year average is now just 42, while the deficit to last year has dipped to 181. So even though there will probably be 9 or 10 more injections before we switch to the withdrawal mode, the idea of getting anywhere close to our 4000 operational capacity is off the table. 

 

A decade ago, a brutal hurricane season even similar to what we are in the middle of now would have sent oil and gas prices to the Moon. But it is a different situation now. Whereas loss of supply due to damages sustained by Gulf area producers used to be extremely bullish for pricing, now it is demand destruction having a bearish effect as residential, commercial and industrial end-users shut-down and/or evacuate.

 

The Oct NYMEX contract has moved down near $.290 per therm ($2.90 per dekatherm). The winter strip averages $.322, while next summer is at $.293. Calendar 2018 remains up around $.304 but 2019 and 2020 are still down in the upper $.280s. And with the low Basis pricing that is still available, budget-conscious end-users can lock in city-gate pricing with a “2-handle” for the next three (3) years !!! 

Can you spell O P P O R T U N I T Y ???

 

Meanwhile, WTI domestic crude oil has moved up to $49 per barrel and gasoline pump prices are up significantly due to obvious refinery issues in TX. The clean-up from catastrophic floods is just beginning there, while FL braces for the destructive winds that are coming its way this weekend. Keep praying for (and donating to) those folks who have already been devastated… or will soon be. 

 

Hiring slowed in Aug as it often does in late summer and some downward revisions were applied to Jun & Jul. But hourly wages continue to inch upward. The ISM manufacturing index has moved up near 59 which is its highest in over 6 years. Anything above 50 indicates that factories are expanding. Furthermore, the Conference Board index of consumer confidence has reached its highest level since 2001. But as we have seen all too often lately, the world is a dangerous place. So investors are showing concern and caution, while survivalists are stocking up with provisions and ammunition.

 

Stay safe,

-Ray

 

 

From: Shannon, Ray A:(Constellation)

Sent: Tuesday, August 29, 2017 3:44 PM

To: 'Info.IL – CNE Gas Illinois info'

Subject: RE: NATURAL GAS UPDATE

 

Throw 2 more injections of 53 and 43 bcf into the tank and our national inventory now stands at 3125. That is 78% of operational capacity and 67 more than the 5-year average. But it is still 214 behind last year’s record pace. And with another modest injection expected to be announced this Thu, that deficit is keeping at least some price support in place at this point in time.

 

The Sep NYMEX expired today at $.296 per therm ($2.96 per dekatherm). It had dipped into the high $.270s earlier this month but has slowly climbed since. If you want flashbacks, how about 2008 when the Sep contract expired at $.839 ($8.39) as the recession kicked in? Or 2005 when it expired at $1.08 ($10.85) as Hurricane Katrina was doing its damage. Now exactly 12 years after that disaster, Harvey has submerged much of TX. But because so much of our natural gas now comes from multiple shale fields far from the Gulf coast, pricing has hardly budged. However, despite WTI domestic crude oil still trading below $47 per barrel, watch for gasoline pump prices to move up as Houston area refineries are temporarily shut down.

 

Oct has now taken over as the prompt month and it is trading around $.297. The winter strip averages $.321 but autumn can be a volatile time as inventory, production and weather concerns cause market makers to adjust their thinking. Meanwhile, Calendar 2018 is currently priced at $.302, while 2019 and 2020 are still discounted down around $.285.

 

Sales in the automotive sector are down so far here in 2017. But do you remember the summer of 1917? That’s when Ford introduced its first truck, the Model TT. And with those first 200 trucks retailing at $600, the auto industry (and the working world) was changed forever. By 1928, almost 1.5 million had been sold. But subsequent upgrades were needed and by 1941, truck sales exceeded 4 million. Then WWII production suspended consumer sales until 1947. The F-series was then introduced to the post-war economy with multiple new features and amenities. By 1977, 26 million trucks had been sold and the “Built Ford Tough” mantra became the standard. And for the past 40 years, Ford trucks have been the nation’s top selling motor vehicle. How’s that for a 100-year success story?

 

Although the ‘Windy City’ is known for many things, it may soon be best known as a municipal black hole. According to Rodney Johnson at Economy & Markets Daily, it’s only a matter of when (not if) Chicago will consume itself financially and start sucking in the wealth of anyone and anything connected to it. With long-term obligations (predominantly pensions) at almost 300% of revenues, it is dead last in fiscal strength among the top 100 US cities. But the state of IL just granted Chicago the ability to segregate funds. So the $1 billion it receives annually from state taxes can be put in a separate account. Then bonds can be issued with higher ratings and lower interest costs, thus saving much needed cash. However, investors should beware of this attempt by the city to side-step its general obligations.    

 

With winter on the horizon, your obligation to plan for your company’s energy requirements should not be taken lightly. So call me at your convenience for a timely conversation soon.

 

Thanks for your business,

-Ray

 

 

From: Shannon, Ray A:(Constellation)

Sent: Friday, August 11, 2017 2:26 PM

To: 'Info.IL – CNE Gas Illinois info'

Subject: RE: NATURAL GAS UPDATE

 

Puny subsequent injections of +20 and +28 bcf have been reported by the EIA. So our national inventory has moved up to 3038. That figure is still 85 above the 5-year average but 250 below last year. So with 13 weekly reports still to come before the traditional injection season ends, we will have to see a lot of +70s soon, if we are going to get up close to 4000 by Nov.

 

The Sep NYMEX contract has been moving up all week and currently trades at $.298 per therm ($2.98 per dekatherm). Yes, that is still a “2-handle”… but not by much. The six months thereafter max out at $.331 in Jan. Then next summer averages $.290 and the winter after that averages $.310. Calendar 2018 is back up above $.300 again after a brief visit in the $.290s. But 2019 and 2020 remain available in the $.286 vicinity.

 

For the past 60 years, the US has been a net importer of natural gas. In other words, despite our rising production capabilities, we still took in more from Canada than we shipped down to Mexico. But that is rapidly changing. In fact in 3 of the first 6 months of 2017, we have been a net exporter. And Cheniere (which owns and operates our only seaside export terminal so far) just reported that it has now shipped 160 total cargoes of LNG via boatloads to 24 different countries around the world since it opened in Mar 2016. And the volume is increasing.

 

With new job numbers up and the unemployment rate down, our economy is humming along and the stock market is way up. But consumer credit has surpassed the previous high from 2008, as Americans insist on buying now.  Aircraft manufacturers are having a great year but auto makers are not. Because the car rental industry is feeling the heat from the expanded ride-sharing industry. So as they cut their fleets, the reduced demand for new and used cars is putting downward pressure on pricing. Meanwhile the stock prices of most major rental companies are way down.

 

According to the Harvard Business Review, 40% of Fortune 500 company CEOs fail within their first 18 months in that role. These bosses learn the hard way that achieving goals requires the support and commitment of their employees. Common pitfalls that can cast any leader in a negative light include…

Playing it safe: Trying to preserve their own position and privileges by not questioning corporate policies and procedures.

Forgetting where he/she came from: Not being visible to their staff and only talking down to them if communicating at all.

Acting like the company revolves around him/her: Making all decisions without input or feedback and taking all the credit for any successes.

Breathing down their necks: Micromanaging and not letting staff members do their own work.

Brushing over team accomplishments: Missing vital opportunities to acknowledge, reward, inspire and build connections.

Word to the wise… Take good care of your employees and they will take great care of your customers.

 

I hope you are having a nice summer.

-Ray

 

 

From: Shannon, Ray A:(Constellation)

Sent: Thursday, July 27, 2017 1:50 PM

To: Info.IL – CNE Gas Illinois info

Subject: RE: NATURAL GAS UPDATE

 

A few lower than expected injections of +57, +28 and +17 bcf during the past 3 weeks, have boosted our national inventory to 2990. And that is certainly about 75% of our operational capacity. But the surplus to the 5-year average has slipped further to 131. And our deficit to last year is now up to 287. Yet even a mostly hot and humid Jul has not done much to materially increase gas pricing.

 

The Aug NYMEX contract expired today at $.297 per therm ($2.969 per dekatherm). Sep is trading similar to that while Oct remains just above $.30. The winter strip moves up to $.324 and next summer is at $.286. Calendar 2018 averages $.299 while 2019 and 2020 are still hanging out there as big bargains just over $.280.

 

One of the ‘Big-4’ reasons to capture at least a layer of the bargains that are currently available is the growth of Liquified Natural Gas (LNG). We began exporting boatloads out of our single terminal about 15 months ago. But soon the construction of several more will be completed. According to the DOE, almost 61 bcf was shipped out in May and that was 10 more than in Apr. Asia, Korea and the Middle East were the biggest takers but others are getting in line. So keep an eye on this new demand.

 

WTI domestic crude oil is up above $48 per barrel again as inventories are being drawn down and supply/demand fundamentals continue to tighten. OPEC keeps trying to manipulate the market but US production remains strong. Meanwhile our red-hot labor market shows no sign of a cool-down. Manufacturing employment is in expansion mode for 78 industries. Initial jobless claims remain under 250,000 and have been under 300,000 for 125 straight weeks. That is the longest streak since the early ‘70s.

 

Often referred to as the “Fear Index”, the CBOE VIX measures near-term volatility in S&P 500 option prices. When money is flowing into the stock market, the VIX moves down as share prices rise. That has been the case for some time now. Despite divisive politics, terrorist attacks and nuclear proliferation, investors just are not very fearful. But in his Retirement Millionaire newsletter, Dr. David Eifrig warns that the US military has dropped to its lowest level of readiness in decades. And he suggests that individual investors like you and me can profit from the billions and billions that will be spent in the coming years as we strive to rebuild our war chest. Look him up and check out his recommendations. 

 

And since I just mentioned the ‘R’ word, a question that many folks struggle with as they get older is, “How much of a nest egg will I need to support my life style in retirement?” According to Steve McDonald at The Oxford Club, there is a simple formula that will give you a very good estimate. It starts with your current gross income. As an example, let’s use $100k. Multiply that by 80% to arrive at $80k in retirement. Then subtract your estimated annual Social Security income. As an example, try $40k. Then multiply the remaining $40k by 25. And the answer in this example, is $1 million. That sum can then be tapped at the rate of 4% per year to give you the additional $40k needed to support your $80k retirement life style.

 

Regardless of how many months or years you plan to work, I hope your retirement plan is on track. In the meantime, let’s work together to make sure your company’s energy plan is in good order. 

 

Thanks and enjoy this nice summer weather,

-Ray

 

PS… My Brewers have finally given up their position on top of the NL Central. And the Cubs are invading Milwaukee this weekend. Which team is going to make a statement?

 

 

From: Shannon, Ray A:(Constellation)

Sent: Friday, July 07, 2017 2:45 PM

To: Info.IL – CNE Gas Illinois info

Subject: RE: NATURAL GAS UPDATE

 

Our national inventory of gas in storage moved up to 2888 today as the EIA reported an injection of +72 bcf this week and +46 the previous week. That is about 72% of our operational capacity. And we still have a full 4 months to go in the traditional 7-month injection season. So with hotter than normal weather expected to cover the country in the weeks ahead, gas pricing remains soft, affordable and worthy of attention by those who don’t want to miss a great opportunity to secure their future energy needs.

 

The Jul NYMEX contract expired on Jun 28 at $.307 per therm ($3.067 per dekatherm). It is hard to even imagine (much less recollect) that 10 years ago it expired at a preposterous price $1.00 per therm ($10 per dekatherm) higher during the wild and crazy summer of 2008. Now Aug is the prompt month and it is trading around $.286. Sep and Oct are similar then the not too distant winter ahead ranges from $.293 to $.3.20 with a 5-month average of $.311. Next summer averages $.280 and the winter after that is at $.301. Calendar 2018 has moved down to $.291 while 2019 and 2020 can be had for $.281.

 

Rather than trying to time the market yourself and/or do it all at once, would you be interested in a systematic method that locks in your Commodity and Basis pricing well in advance and along the way? Our Smart Portfolio might be just the ticket. So get back to me if you want further details.

 

As a life-long resident of your neighboring state to the north, I was surprised to read that IL is on track to become the first state to have its credit rating downgraded to ‘junk’ status. And with an already multi-billion-dollar deficit, that will be costly to taxpayers for many years to come. Maybe my taxes are not that high after all.

 

Joe Bonura is a big advocate of the Attitude of Gratitude. His latest newsletter (copy attached with his absolute approval) tells a few stories about how he has mastered the art of saying “Thank You” to customers, prospects, salespeople, clerks, teachers and just about anyone and everyone else thru the years. And often that lost art has rewarded him many times over.

 

So on that note, I would like to say THANKS FOR YOUR BUSINESS.

And have a great weekend,

-Ray

 

PS… Some of you may know Phyllis DeCoste from our office here in WI. She has been with our company thru the transition from Kaztex to Blackhawk to Constellation and Exelon. But today she is retiring after a solid 20-year contribution to our success in serving customers in both WI and IL. And I want to thank her and wish her all the best.

 

 

 

From: Shannon, Ray A:(Constellation)

Sent: Friday, June 23, 2017 4:13 PM

To: Info.IL – CNE Gas Illinois info

Subject: RE: NATURAL GAS UPDATE

 

Throw in additional storage injections of +78 and +61 bcf and our national inventory bumps up to 2770 and now approaches 70% of operational capacity. And with a surplus to the 5-year average of 242 and cooler weather in the forecast, gas pricing has softened further.

 

The Jul NYMEX contract will expire next Wed and is trading down around $.293 per therm ($2.93 per dekatherm) as this week winds down. Aug, Sep & Oct are a little higher but still below $.30. The coming winter averages $.321, next summer is at $.286 and the winter after that trades at $.307. Calendar 2018 can now be secured at $.298 while 2019 and 2020 are even better values at $.288 and $.289.

 

“But what if the market goes lower?” is a question we often hear from industrial, commercial, municipal and institutional customers worried that they might miss a better opportunity later and/or look bad for acting too soon. The answer is at least threefold. If you have a budget that has to be met, this is a great opportunity meet or beat it. If you have done any comparisons against past pricing, this is a great opportunity for improvement. And if you don’t want to commit to everything at one single point in time, do it in layers so the current opportunity does not slip away.

 

With WTI crude oil currently testing support at $43 per barrel, we could be facing significant lay-offs in the energy sector soon. Just a month ago, oil prices were up in the mid $50s and some analysts were predicting $60 and even $70 later this year. But despite cuts by OPEC, US producers are picking up the pace. And as exports increase and drilling restrictions are eased, the incentive to keep pumping remains strong. As a result, gasoline pump prices are moving down closer to $2 per gallon instead of the $3-plus that had been predicted for this summer. Furthermore, it is accelerating the auto industry’s transition from fuel efficiency to sport-utility. Even though overall sales are down, car companies are enjoying a solid year with SUVs and light trucks leading the way.

 

Meanwhile, the ‘retail apocalypse’ continues as the surplus of brick and mortar stores is decimated by the new wave of on-line shoppers. Amazon stock now trades above $1,000. But technology is not the whole story. Harry Dent’s Economy & Markets newsletter points to demographics as the main driver. And baby-boomers like me are the key players. Because our spending habits peaked in about 2007. First it was housing, then furnishings, then clothing, then tuitions. So don’t be surprised as you see more cobwebs and tumbleweeds in shopping malls near you.

 

Have a great summer weekend,

-Ray

 

 

From: Shannon, Ray A:(Constellation)

Sent: Friday, June 09, 2017 12:58 PM

To: Info.IL – CNE Gas Illinois info

Subject: RE: NATURAL GAS UPDATE

 

With two more sizeable injection reports that were comparable to the 5-year averages for this time of year, including +81 bcf last week and +106 bcf this week, we now have 2631 bcf in storage. That means we are fast approaching the two-thirds full mark, with still almost 5 months left in the traditional 7-month injection season. But with the first heat wave of the summer about to sweep across the eastern half of the country and with the “Big 4” supply/demand factors still very much in play, support for gas pricing remains in place.

 

The Jul NYMEX contract is trading around $.305 per therm ($3.05 per dekatherm). It briefly penetrated technical support at $.300 earlier this week before the pending power generation surge was considered. Pricing projections move up slightly each month thereafter peaking in Jan at $.338. But Cal 2018 averages just $.304, while 2019 remains very attractive at $.287 and 2020 is even more attractive at $.284. Add dirt-cheap pipeline Basis to the deal and your company has an opportunity to lock in some real long-term price security.

 

WTI domestic crude oil has fallen below $46 per barrel as drilling rig counts continue to rise in the US. OPEC wants to limit global supply but it can’t do anything about the reduced global demand.

 

Speaking of demand, the Demand Response (DR) season is upon us and those companies that are willing to curtail their electric power consumption if called upon by ComEd to do so, are getting ready for the mandatory 1-hour test that is scheduled for Jun 22. If they pass, they will be eligible for a big pay-off, even if no real curtailment event is actually called during the rest of the year. And with a track record of zero real events in the past decade, the odds are in their favor.

 

The US economy seems to be moving along in pretty good order with the equity markets at or near all-time highs, interest rates still very low, a strong jobs market and unemployment down to just 4.3%. But companies are struggling to find qualified workers as want ads for open positions have reached 16-year highs. Meanwhile, consumer debt for mortgages, credit cards, autos and college educations is up near $13 trillion and defaults are running high in all four of those categories.

 

The recently completed Business Roundtable survey of large company CEOs, moved its index up from 93.3 in Q1 to 93.9 in Q2. The long-term average has been closer to 80. This is a strong vote of confidence in the new administration’s agenda for meaningful tax and regulatory reform, despite multiple snags in Congress and the relentless crusade by the liberal left.

 

Would you like to be able to sell anything to anyone? In his book titled You Don’t Have to be a Shark, Robert Herjavec offers 5 tips.

Sell yourself first… present yourself well and be likeable.

Know who you are approaching… not everyone is a candidate for your product, service or idea. 

Understand what motivates them… then show how you can add value. 

Listen more than you talk… pay attention to their wants and needs.

Keep it simple… speak in layman’s terms and make it short and sweet.

 

Have a great weekend and enjoy the heat,

-Ray 

   

 

From: Shannon, Ray A:(Constellation)

Sent: Friday, May 26, 2017 1:47 PM

To: Info.IL – CNE Gas Illinois info

Subject: RE: NATURAL GAS UPDATE

 

With a higher than expected injection report of +75 bcf this week and +68 last week, our national inventory has moved up to 2444. That further shrinks the surplus to the 5-year average to 283 bcf. And after some relatively strong near-term pricing in recent weeks, things seem to be settling down a little as the Memorial Day weekend arrives to kick-off summer.

 

The Jun NYMEX contract expired today at $.327 per therm ($3.236 per dekatherm) after trading much higher for most of the month. Last year, the Jun contract joined the previous months of Mar, Apr & May in the sub-$.200 club when it expired at $.196. And the year before, it finished at $.282. But the 5 years before that averaged just under $.400.

 

Now Jul moves to front-center and today it is trading around $.330. Aug, Sep & Oct are a tad higher, then next winter averages $.350. Next summer is at $.294 and the winter after that is at $.314. So the backwardation continues. And longer-range planners are grabbing the gusto. Remember… ‘2’-handles are your friends !!!

 

Crude oil had recently moved up above $50 again on word that OPEC production cuts will remain in place for at least the next 9 months in an effort to drive prices into the $60s. But so far this year, global demand is down about 300 barrels per day while US production has moved up by almost 500 per day to offset the OPEC plan. So many analysts think oil pricing will be hard-pressed to hit $60. And in fact it moved back down to $49 today.

 

The US jobs market remains strong despite pending lay-offs at Ford. And our Q1 GDP has been revised upward from the original .8% to 1.2%. But despite what has come to be known as the ‘Trump Bump’ in the equities market, the “I” word is being heard more often in some circles lately. And that has many folks wondering if now is a good time to seek shelter from a correction that is probably overdue anyhow. 

 

In an interesting article by Tom Saler, he points out that there have been 3 major political scandals that threatened to remove a president (Nixon, Reagan & Clinton) before the end of his elected term. But each time, that grave possibility had little direct or lasting impact on our economy or markets. So selling everything and moving to cash might not be necessary at this time. However, he warns that distracted presidents that have to expend substantial political capital just to fight legal battles, might find it difficult to pass the business-friendly legislation they campaigned on. So he recommends paying close attention and being ready to take action.

 

I would like to take action by saluting all of our military personnel past and present, for their multiple sacrifices that have kept America free. Despite all our problems and disagreements, we have so much to be thankful for.

 

Have a great Memorial Day.

-Ray

 

 

 

In Honor of All Who Served 

 

 

Happy Memorial Day

 

 

 

From: Shannon, Ray A:(Constellation)

Sent: Friday, May 12, 2017 12:16 PM

To: Info.IL – CNE Gas Illinois info

Subject: RE: NATURAL GAS UPDATE

 

After last week’s EIA storage report came in slightly above expectations at +67 bcf, the report this week was significantly lower than normal and well below expectations at just +45. So our national inventory now stands at 2301, which is still 314 above the 5-year average. But the (324) deficit to last year and a continuing lag in production, has some analysts concerned that we will not be able to reach the operationally full level of +/- 4000 bcf by Nov. And near-term gas pricing is moving up further in response.

 

The Jun NYMEX contract is trading up around $.342 per therm ($3.42 per dekatherm). The 4 remaining summer months beyond that are all approaching $.350. And next winter averages $.365. Cal 2018 has moved back up above $.314 and is testing key resistance at $.315. But once again, Cal 2019 and 2020 remain available below $.290. Let me say that again… both Cal 2019 and 2020 can be locked in now at a NYMEX price below $.290 !! And the corresponding pipeline Basis is so low that the opportunity is even better than that. So if you have not yet acted on anything out that far, please excuse my bluntness when I say, “Wake up and smell the roses”.

 

WTI domestic crude oil got down to $46 per barrel earlier this week but is back up above $48 today. US production is up while OPEC production remains artificially suppressed in an effort to stabilize global pricing. But if it continues to lose market share, watch for OPEC to reverse course soon. Meanwhile, gasoline pump prices continue to fall, despite the approach of Memorial Day and the start of the summer driving season.

 

According to an article in the Apr edition of McKinsey Quarterly, global demand for electric power is expected to double by 2050. And as many as 20 new energy sources could be supplying that power. The fossil fuels of oil, gas and coal along with nuclear fission, will still be major contributors. But renewable sources and new technologies will become significant parts of the mix. And those abundant choices will raise new dilemmas for governments facing cost and environmental considerations. Whereas access to fossil fuels has long been a key factor in geopolitics, access to the technologies capable of harnessing the sun, wind, water and the earth’s core will become critical.      

 

The AFL-CIO Executive PayWatch report, says the average CEO of the S&P 500 was paid about $13 million in 2016. And that was 347 times more than the average non-supervisory production worker earned at $37,600. But with US economy going strong, the Labor Dept reports that the pool of available workers is getting very shallow for the many jobs that need to be filled. In fact, the current ratio of just 1.25 jobless folks for each job opening is the lowest since 2001. So after many years of sluggish growth, this is causing employers to increase pay in an effort to attract and maintain workers. 

 

Thanks and have a great Mother’s Day weekend,

-Ray

 

   

 

From: Shannon, Ray A:(Constellation)

Sent: Thursday, April 27, 2017 11:10 AM

To: Info.IL – CNE Gas Illinois info

Subject: RE: NATURAL GAS UPDATE

 

The new storage injection season officially began on Apr 1. Since then the EIA has reported injections of +10, +54 and today +74 bcf. Those 3 have increased our underground inventory to 2189 bcf, which is already 331 above the 5-year average and about 55% of operational capacity.

 

The May NYMEX contract expired yesterday at $.314 per therm ($3.142 per dekatherm). It had spent most of Apr trading above that. Last year, the May contract expired just below $.200 but the prior 5 years averaged $.358. And way back in 2008, it went into the record books at an astounding $1.13 per therm. Think about it… that was over 11 dollars per dekatherm!

 

Now Jun is the prompt month and today it is trading around $.323. The rest of summer trades above $.330. Next winter averages $.353 and the summer after that is at $.295. The Cal 2018 strip has moved up to $.312 and if it breaks thru resistance at $.315, some analysts see it continuing up to $.340. But Cal 2019 and Cal 2020 can still be secured in the low $.290s. And that is the opportunity we have been trying to communicate to our customers for some time now. Do not let it evaporate without capturing at least a base layer for your portfolio!

 

Meanwhile, crude oil keeps bouncing between the upper $40s and mid $50s and has moved down below $49 again. But thus far it has not been able to penetrate technical support at $48 and is not expected to do so this time either.

 

According to the DoE, 8.3 million Americans were employed within the Energy industry in 2016. Of that total, 1.9 million (23%) worked in what is defined as the creation of energy. The breakdown is 515,000 in oil, 398,000 in gas, 374,000 in solar, 160,000 in coal, 131,000 in bio, 102,000 in wind, 77,000 in nuclear and 66,000 in hydro. Then 2.3 million (28%) worked in the transmission, storage and distribution of energy. And just over 4 million (49%) worked in the manufacturing and installing of energy products.

 

It is no secret that US equity markets have performed impressively in recent months. The DJIA is up almost 18% since Nov and over 6% since Jan, while the NASDAQ is up 20% since Nov and 12% since Jan. All this despite an 8-year bull run that many fear is on its last legs. But there is an old saying that goes something like, “Sell in May, then go away”. And 66 years of data seems to offer overwhelming support that the 6 month period of Nov thru Apr is much better than May thru Oct. In fact a $10k investment in the Dow that remained invested only between Nov 1 thru Apr 30 each year since 1950, would now be worth about $844k. While that same amount invested only from May 1 thru Oct 30 each year since then, did not break even. So take it from there.

 

Next Thu May 4th, we will be conducting the Rockford edition of our Annual Energy Conference. But unlike past years, this one will be located at a local brewery and won’t even begin until 3pm. In addition to some great beer and interesting food, it will feature keynote speaker Brian Habacivch who is as entertaining as he is informative. And since it will be my last, I would really appreciate your presence at this worthwhile event. Especially if you are located anywhere near Rockford and/or were not able to attend the Chicago edition on Apr 4th. The invitation is attached.

 

Thanks for your business,

-Ray

 

 

 

From: Shannon, Ray A:(Constellation)

Sent: Wednesday, April 12, 2017 9:48 AM

To: Info.IL – CNE Gas Illinois info

Subject: RE: NATURAL GAS UPDATE

 

The final EIA report for the traditional 5-month winter heating season was released last week and it indicated a tiny injection of +2 bcf. So we exited Mar with a national inventory of 2051. That was 269 above the 5-year average but 417 below last year’s El Nino. And it means we started the traditional 7-month injection season with our tank already a little over half full. 

 

The attached chart shows the HDDs of the past 10-plus years as measured at O’Hare Field. Looking at the past 2 winters, Nov ’16 was somewhat warmer than Nov ’15. But Dec ’16 was much colder than Dec ’15. Then Jan ’17 was somewhat warmer than Jan ’16. But Feb ’17 was much warmer than Feb ’16. And finally Mar ’17 was significantly colder than Mar ’16. Combined, the 5-month HDD total for this winter was 4517 compared to 4409 for the previous El Nino winter. The winter average for the past 10 years was 5057. So both were extremely warm compared to this recent history. 

 

Forward gas pricing has been moving up for several weeks. And after some early softness this week, it is up again today. The May NYMEX contract is trading around $.318 per therm ($3.18 per dekatherm) and the remaining 6 months of the summer strip average $.331. Next winter averages $.354. Cal 2018 trades around $.308 while Cal 2019 and Cal 2020 remain backwardated down around $.285. 

 

Crude oil has reversed course and is headed north to the tune of about $54 per barrel for WTI domestic. The situation in Syria has moved ahead of the OPEC production cuts in the calculations. So much for the continued decline that was referred to in my previous edition below.

 

An interesting article by freelance journalist Tom Saler points out that as recently as 1890, wood and water were the main sources of energy in the US. Then coal took over and went on a 100-year run as the leader. By 1990, well over half of our rapidly expanding needs for electricity were generated from coal. But today, coal’s market share is down to about 30% as natural gas, nukes and renewables have gained prominence. And a tripling in mine productivity in recent decades has slashed employment in the coal industry by 75%. Meanwhile, the Center for Disease Control says that nearly 80,000 miners have died from black lung disease since 1970. But a recent NPR investigation indicates the death toll might be 10 times larger. And the trust fund that was established for the care of those miners is $6 billion in the hole, with tax payers on the hook for future claims. Furthermore, a study by Physicians for Social Responsibility says that emissions from coal-fired power plants contribute to 4 of the 5 leading causes of premature deaths among people not engaged in the coal industry. And it estimates the hospital costs at $100 billion per year.

 

Our Annual Energy Conference in Chicago drew a big crowd last week, despite heavy rain that slowed downtown traffic even more than normal. Lots of good information (and more importantly… what it means to you) was presented. Add the food, drink and prizes plus a free ticket to the White Sox home opener and you had the ingredients for a pretty good day away from the office. Next up is the Rockford edition on Thu May 4. But instead of our usual morning breakfast format, we are trying a different time and venue. We will be meeting in the Prairie Street Brewhouse at 3pm. The presentation will feature our human dynamo… Brian Habacivch. And as you might have guessed, food and beer will be involved. So please sign up, then show up for this event.

 

The nomination process for May gas deliveries is already underway. So please let me know if there are any special situations we should be aware of as we plan for your probable consumption and any storage injections. Also, please let me know if you have other gas or power accounts you want me to look into. And remember, your referrals to any other companies that could benefit from Constellation’s services are always appreciated.

 

Thanks and Happy Easter,

-Ray

 

 

 

From: Shannon, Ray A:(Constellation)

Sent: Friday, March 31, 2017 10:40 AM

To: Info.IL – CNE Gas Illinois info

Subject: RE: NATURAL GAS UPDATE

Importance: High

 

Regarding our Energy Conference next Tue at 9am, the on-line registration option was technically “closed” yesterday when we reached the standard seating capacity. But that included Constellation employees and therefore was not accurate. We definitely have room for you and want you to be there for all the action. So please contact me if you have any problem registering on-line. Or if you finally decide on Tue morning that you can make it, just walk in and join us. I will be watching for you.

Thanks,

-Ray

  

 

From: Shannon, Ray A:(Constellation)

Sent: Thursday, March 30, 2017 11:24 AM

To: Info.IL – CNE Gas Illinois info

Subject: RE: NATURAL GAS UPDATE

 

ADDENDUM to previous UPDATE…

 

The Apr NYMEX contract continued moving upward Tue then expired Wed afternoon at $.3175 per therm. 

And the EIA storage report came in this morning showing a withdrawal of -43 bcf.

So our national inventory stands at 2049 which is still 234 above the 5-year average.

Now the May contract is trading around $.322 and the remaining summer strip averages $.332.

 

Our Annual Energy Conference is now just 5 days away and the reminder I sent below evidently caused many more folks to register.

So I will ask those of you who have not yet done so, to please sign up then show up Tue at 9am.

 

Thanks,

-Ray

 

 

 

From: Shannon, Ray A:(Constellation)

Sent: Tuesday, March 28, 2017 10:36 AM

To: Info.IL – CNE Gas Illinois info

Subject: RE: NATURAL GAS UPDATE

 

A much more substantial withdrawal report of -150 bcf was reported last week which combined with a sub-standard -53 the week before, has now reduced our national inventory to 2092. That represents a 261 surplus to the 5-year average and should be keeping at least gentle downward pressure on forward gas pricing. But as I learned many years ago, just when you think you have this market all figured out, it often defies logic and does whatever it wants to do.

 

The Apr NYMEX contract ended last week up at $.309 per therm ($3.09 per dekatherm) but has moved down to $.307 since then. It is scheduled to expire tomorrow and it will be interesting to see if mild weather between now and then will drive it down further. May thru Oct escalate from $.315 to $.332. Then the winter strip averages $.347. But market backwardation has Cal 2018 trading at $.306, while 2019 and 2020 remain soft and very attractive under $.290. Remember… ‘2-handles’ are your friends. Especially when the incredible low Basis prices that can now be locked in, will probably yield combined city-gate pricing that also begins with a ‘2’. So give me a call to see how this market phenomenon can be applied to your forward pricing portfolio.

 

Whereas WTI domestic crude oil is trading down around $48 per barrel, Steve Sjuggerud’s Daily Wealth newsletter says that the decline is just beginning. He points to the Commitment of Traders report which shows that oil futures market activity was extremely bullish in Jan & Feb this year. The last time it peaked near that level was in the summer of 2014. And prices crashed by 50% during the 6 months right after that. The time before that was in 2011 when prices dropped 30% within 5 months of the CoT peak. So whereas oil prices have already dipped about 13% from their recent peak near $55, he cautions that another 15 to 20% fall-off is likely. And sub-$2 gasoline prices could arrive just in time for the summer travel season.  

 

US natural gas exports to Mexico via underground pipelines, reached all-time highs last year and remain very strong this year. In fact that is one of the “Big 4” reasons why our current over-supplied situation is in transition and could very likely lead to higher gas prices in the not too distant future. 

 

Meanwhile, the above ground border between the US and Mexico is about 2,000 miles long. But only about 700 miles of it is separated by a barrier. So the new administration would like to finish that barrier along the other 1,300 miles and tighten the immigration process. But according to Judicial Watch, the non-partisan foundation that promotes transparency, accountability and integrity in government, politics and law, it might be too little, too late. Because overwhelmed and understaffed border agents were bombarded by organized throngs of immigrants from both hemispheres throughout 2016. And they were ordered by Homeland Security to process them all as ‘refugees fearing persecution’, without proper vetting for security or health risks. Stay tuned as this topic heats up.      

 

Spring is here and with it our Annual Energy Conferences in multiple locations. Next up is a major gathering at Guaranteed Rate Field (the new name for the home of the White Sox) on Tue Apr 4. There are market factors at work that could have a real impact on your company’s energy budget. And the speakers at this event will explain things in a user-friendly format that you can benefit from. So please sign up, then show up at 9am. And stay for the food and fun that follow the presentations. The invitation is attached.   

 

Thanks for your business,

-Ray

 

PS… Best wishes to the Cubs as they begin their defense of the 2016 World Series championship.

 

 

 

From: Shannon, Ray A:(Constellation)

Sent: Friday, March 10, 2017 2:20 PM

To: Info.IL – CNE Gas Illinois info

Subject: RE: NATURAL GAS UPDATE

 

It was so warm a few weeks ago, that instead of a withdrawal from storage in the normal vicinity of -130 bcf, we actually had an injection of +7 bcf. And that was for a week right in the middle of Feb, typically one of the coldest months of the year. In fact the heating degree days for this entire month of Feb totaled just 751, compared to a previous 10-year Feb average of 1122. And yesterday’s EIA report for the week after that, was just -68 bcf. So our national inventory is still way up at 2295, which is 304 above the 5-year average with four months down and just one more to go in this winter.

 

But step outside and you will realize that cold weather has returned here in Mar. And gas pricing, which had been beaten down in recent weeks, has moved up in response.

 

The Apr NYMEX contract has moved back up above $.300 per therm ($3.02 per dekatherm). The 7-months summer strip averages $.317 and next winter is up near $.340. But Cal 2018 trades at $.304 while both 2019 and 2020 can be secured under $.290. So bargains remain very available. 

 

And don’t forget about pipeline Basis. It’s easy to overlook this usually tiny component of your total gas cost… unless you still remember the bloodbath of 3 years ago when the Polar Vortex was sitting right on top of us. Some very low opportunities are available right now. So get back to me for details.

 

Meanwhile, crude oil has retreated from its attempt to break thru resistance. After almost hitting the $55 per barrel plateau 2 weeks ago, WTI domestic has since fallen below $50. US inventories have grown to a record 529 million barrels and OPEC is still holding to just a 6-month production cut.

 

The jobs report today beat expectations with 235,000 new hires and unemployment down to just 4.7%. Throw in an uptick in the labor force participation rate to 63%, the highest in more than a year, and you have the making for a second Fed rate hike… probably as soon as next week.

 

The ‘Oracle of Omaha’ has spoken once again so it is probably worth paying attention. In his annual letter to shareholders, Warren Buffett makes the following excellent points…

Have a flexible business model. Changes are inevitable.

Diversify your holdings. Don’t put all your eggs in one basket.

Be opportunistic. When everyone else is selling, consider buying.

Trust your instincts. If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is.

Protect yourself from blind spots. Just because you don’t see it, chances are it is still there.

Don’t let politics cloud your judgment. Stay invested even if your guy does not win.

Never bet against America. There will be temporary interruptions but our system will continue to create wealth for those who participate.

 

Best wishes to you and your business,

-Ray

 

 

 

From: Shannon, Ray A:(Constellation)

Sent: Friday, February 24, 2017 4:36 PM

To: Info.IL – CNE Gas Illinois info

Subject: RE: NATURAL GAS UPDATE

 

There is nothing like a week of record-breaking 60+ temps in the middle of Feb to cause an already soft winter to collapse into itself. And that is pretty much what happened while you were out playing an unexpected round of golf in recent days. And with the resultant low gas storage withdrawals of just -114 and -89 bcf, we are sitting on a national inventory of 2356 which is almost 100 above the 5-year average.

 

The Mar NYMEX contract expired today at just under $.263 per therm ($2.627 per dekatherm). It got down as low as $.255 earlier in the week as the incredible heat wave was nearing its end. Last year Mar expired at $.171 (its lowest price since 1999) as El Nino was doing its thing. And back in 2012, another warm winter allowed Mar to expire at $.245. But excluding those 2 years, the 12 prior Mar contracts expired at an average price of $.567 !!

 

The fast-approaching summer strip ended the week trading at $.296. Next winter averages $.321. Cal 2018 has moved down to $.293. And Cal 2019 and 2020 are available below $.285. Pipeline Basis deals are also ripe for the taking. So now is a good time to grab at least a layer of price protection, budget certainty, production costing and/or spike avoidance… whichever reason suits your situation.

 

Meanwhile, keep an eye on crude oil as WTI domestic continues to creep up towards the $55 plateau. With spring just around the corner, the summer driving season will soon be upon us and gasoline prices with a 2-handle might be long gone by then.

 

With retirement looming in my future, I find it interesting that many folks my age have accumulated less than $100k in savings for what could be several decades of extended life expectancy. In fact a retirement nest egg of just $250k is well above average among baby-boomers. But that will still require some significant belt-tightening. Because at an average yield of 4%, that will generate only about $800 of monthly income. And combined with a Social Security check of $2,000 or even $3,000, it will still be tuff to maintain the pre-retirement lifestyle… even if the mortgage has been paid off. And don’t forget medical costs which are increasing faster than any inflation rate. According to the Employee Benefit Research Institute, it will likely take hundreds of thousands of dollars to cover the insurance premiums, deductibles and related expenses of a retired couple. And that could quickly erode such modest nest eggs. So working longer, saving more and budgeting tight will be absolutely necessary to avoid going broke.

 

Have a great weekend,

-Ray

 

 

 

From: Shannon, Ray A:(Constellation)

Sent: Thursday, February 09, 2017 5:04 PM

To: Info.IL – CNE Gas Illinois info

Subject: RE: NATURAL GAS UPDATE

 

The EIA reported a withdrawal of -152 bcf today, which was right in the middle of expectations. Last week’s report was an unusually low -87 and the week before that it was just -119. So our national inventory has moved down to 2559 bcf. That is still 64% of operational capacity, although 13 below the 5-year average. And now most weather forecasts are calling for a warmer than normal Feb. So gas pricing remains pretty affordable with 3 months down and 2 to go this winter.

 

The Feb NYMEX contract expired on Fri, Jan 27 at $.339 per therm ($3.391 per dekatherm) after trading below that for much of the month. Feb contracts had settled below that in 4 of the past 5 years, the exception being 2014 when the Polar Vortex drove it up to $.555. Just thinking about all the chaos that was happening 3 years ago brings a shudder to any of us in the energy business. And those who had to pay for the expanded volumes at the brutal city-gate prices during those 3 months from Hell, will probably never forget it.

 

Now Mar is trading down around $.312. But prices on the board go up every month from there thru the rest of the year. The 7-month summer strip is at $.332, then next winter averages $.356. Calendar 2018 trades lower at $.312 but extraordinary market backwardation kicks in after that. Cal 2019, 2020 and 2021 are all trading in the vicinity of $.290! And any time you can secure a piece of your company’s energy future at a commodity price with a “2-handle”, you have to take advantage of it. Now I am not saying that you have to lock in 100% of whatever you think you will burn in those not-too-distant years. But I am strongly suggesting that locking in at least a layer of 20% (up to as much as 50%) would be a very prudent business decision.

 

Although gas production and resultant supply remain strong, there are several demand factors that continue to build momentum. Power generation certainly remains on the forefront as aging coal plants are retired from service. The petro-chemical industry continues to increase its gas consumption. Exports via pipelines into Mexico are increasing. And boatloads of LNG are departing from the Gulf at a growing pace. So you can see how those “2-handles” could become a thing of the past sooner than later.

 

As US labor costs rose by 1.7% during Q4 2016, productivity increased at a 1.3% rate. But for the year, productivity was up just 0.2%. And that was the worst year in the last 5. Meanwhile, US auto dealers are sitting on a glut of new vehicles as softening demand cannot keep pace with record production. Something has to give, and it should result in nice discounts for opportunistic buyers. 

 

Tesla Motors has shortened its name to just Tesla as it expands beyond vehicles into home energy storage, solar power and batteries. As for VW, the total cost of its emissions scandal is now likely to exceed $23 billion, after it agreed to include more diesel owners.

 

Speaking of solar, Target and Walmart are the largest corporate users at 147 and 145 megawatts respectively. The rest of the Top 10 are Prologis 108, Apple 94, Costco 51, Kohl’s 50, Ikea 44, Macy’s 39, General Growth 30 and Hartz Mountain 23.

 

With Feb being such a short month, the monthly gas nomination cycle will begin already next week. So let me know if you have any special situations or requests we should consider.

 

Thanks for your business,

-Ray

 

PS… How about that Super Bowl comeback by those amazing Patriots? Love them or hate them, you have to respect them.

 

 

 

From: Shannon, Ray A:(Constellation)

Sent: Monday, January 23, 2017 3:45 PM

To: Info.IL – CNE Gas Illinois info

Subject: RE: NATURAL GAS UPDATE

 

Two more sizeable EIA withdrawal reports of -151 and -243 bcf have reduced out national inventory to 2917, at the midpoint of the traditional 5-month winter heating season. That is 146 below the 5-year average. And it represents a substantial 558 deficit to last year when El Nino was alive and well. But warmer than normal weather has been upon us for a few days now and will probably prevail thru the rest of Jan. So even though much colder temps are in the Feb forecast, gas prices are moving down.

 

The Feb NYMEX contract is trading down around $.328 per therm ($3.28 per dekatherm) and Mar is right there too. The summer strip averages $.336 and next winter is available at $.353. Calendar 2018 can be secured at about $.310 while 2019 and 2020 trade slightly above $.290 and represent outstanding values.

 

There were 1241 HDDs (Heating Degree Days) in Dec 2016. The 30-year average for Dec was 1145. So it was definitely colder than normal. But 2016 in total was quite warm. And many of the other recent calendar years have been warmer than normal. So there would appear to be some evidence that global warming is for real. Hopefully mankind can do something to counteract it.

 

Meanwhile, there is good and bad news pertaining to the automotive industry. GM plans to invest additional billions in US factories and add thousands of jobs. Ford has cancelled plans for a new plant in Mexico in favor of stateside expansion. Chrysler has announced expansions at two US plants. VW is beefing up its plant in TN. Toyota says it will invest billions in US operations over the next 5 years. And Honda is celebrating the 40th anniversary of its first of 12 US factories. But a VW executive is still under indictment and being held without bail while that emissions scandal is sorted out. And now Chrysler is being accused of a similar scam by the EPA. All the while, the Takata airbag crisis continues to unfold affecting certain models of almost all makes from A to V, with massive recalls and $1 billion in criminal fines.

 

What is the best financial advice you can offer to a young person? Just 3 words…“Start saving early!” At age 20, they can become a millionaire at 65 by saving just $2 per day. But it has to be invested and it has to earn about 12% per year. That may sound unattainable, until you check and see that since 1980, the Russell 2000 Index has averaged 10.9%, the S&P 500 has averaged 11.5% and Russell 2000 value stocks have averaged 12.7%. Unfortunately, waiting until they can ‘afford’ to invest will make it much harder to reach that goal by 65. At age 30, it will take $5 per day. At 40, it will take $20, at 50 it will take $75 and at 55 it will take almost $160 per day. So now is the time.

 

Best of luck to you and yours,

-Ray

 

PS… Thanks for your support as the Packers won 8 straight games and got to the Final Four of the NFL Play-offs. It was a great run until it ended with a resounding thud.

 

 

 

From: Shannon, Ray A:(Constellation)

Sent: Thursday, January 05, 2017 10:04 AM

To: Info.IL – CNE Gas Illinois info

Subject: RE: NATURAL GAS UPDATE

 

Another New Year’s Eve has come and gone without me doing any jail time. So 2017 is off to a good start for me… and I hope for you too. But some recent very cold weather (the likes of which we did not experience at all last winter) has put a significant dent in our natural gas storage balance. The last 3 EIA reports featured big withdrawals of -147, -209 and -237 bcf. But today the EIA just reported a much lower than expected -49 withdrawal during the warm NYE holiday week. That reduced our national inventory to 3311 which is 76 below the 5-year average. And we are now down around the 80% full mark, with still 3 full months to go in the traditional 5-month withdrawal season.

 

Despite another arctic blast that has descended upon us for the remainder of this week, some above normal temps are forecasted for next week. So the forces of supply and demand have been battling each other causing some pretty wild volatility in forward gas pricing.

 

The Jan NYMEX contract expired on Dec 28 at $.393 per therm ($3.93 per dekatherm). It was trading down around $.350 just a few days before, then rapidly accelerated as the cold forecasts prevailed. Since then, Feb has been the prompt month and it took a big hit earlier this week dropping from $.370 to $.330, as the pending warmth was taken into consideration. Today both Feb and Mar are trading down around $.320 while the 7-month summer strip averages just under $.320 and next winter is just under $.340. Cal 2018 can be locked in at around $.303 while both 2019 and 2020 remain backwardated at bargain pricing below $.290.

 

After registering annual growth rates of just +0.8% in the first quarter and +1.4% in the second, the US economy jumped by +3.5% in the third. Depending on fourth quarter details, total growth for the year will probably come in around +1.5%. That would be down from +2.6% in 2015 and would be the weakest since the brutal -2.8% of 2009. Furthermore, the average annual rate of just over +2% during the past 7 years represents the weakest expansion since WWII.

 

However consumer confidence as measured by the Conference Board, reached another post-recession high in Dec. The stock market soared to a new record after the Trump victory in Nov and he is off to an early start in his efforts to keep businesses working here, instead of moving to other countries. The outlook for new jobs and higher incomes remains upbeat and spending on new construction projects is going strong. But left-leaning millennials have yet to join the optimism as they continue to protest whenever and wherever they can. And a movement is underway in the state of CA to secede from the Union. And of course the out-going administration is busy laying road blocks everywhere it can.  

 

Meanwhile, the Fed went ahead with a 0.25% rate hike in Dec and is expected to follow up with as many as 3 additional hikes in 2017. The idea is that higher borrowing costs will limit economic growth and thereby control inflation. And the manufacturing sector is evidently moving forward after more than a year of cutbacks. The Commerce department is reporting that industrial spending on machinery and other big-ticket items has moved up slightly for 3 straight months.

 

It has long been evident in the world of sports that star performers on the field, do not automatically become the greatest coaches or managers after their playing days are over. The transition for those who have attempted it, has been difficult and often ended in failure. And according to Tom Carroll, president of Strategic Solutions Inc, the same dilemma often occurs in the sales arena when a company promotes its top performer to a management role. He cautions companies and their sales people to be careful when considering such a move. And he recommends that before, during and after the transition, prospective sales managers should: analyze their attitude; acknowledge their limitations; adapt their behavior; delegate responsibilities; provide constant feedback and become a trusted resource.

 

Hopefully I have become a trusted resource for you and your company as you navigate the uncertainties of the energy markets. As always, please get back to me with any questions, comments or concerns.

 

Happy New Year,

-Ray

 

PS… Thanks for all your well-wishes as the Packers enter the NFL Play-offs.  

 

 

 

From: Shannon, Ray A:(Constellation)

Sent: Monday, December 12, 2016 2:16 PM

To: Info.IL – CNE Gas Illinois info

Subject: RE: NATURAL GAS UPDATE

 

After modest natural gas storage withdrawals of -50 and -42 during the past 2 weeks, our national underground inventory remains sky-high at

3953 bcf. That lofty figure is 292 above the 5-year average with 1 month down and 4 more to go in the traditional winter heating season. And gas production remains steady if not spectacular, so there would appear to be plenty to handle whatever weather will be coming at us the rest of the way.

 

Going back to Jan, Feb & Mar of 2014, anyone who experienced that incredible Polar Vortex knows how adversely it affected the natural gas market. NYMEX commodity prices went up significantly as expected. But it was pipeline transport prices that literally exploded as everyone burned much more than expected and compressor stations broke down trying to meet the huge demand. Hopefully the arctic cold front that is now descending upon much of the US, will not be anywhere near as severe and extended as 3 years ago. However it is already causing some gyrations (up and down) in the gas market.

 

The Dec NYMEX contract expired 11 days ago at $.323 per therm ($3.232 per dekatherm). During its final trading days, it had moved up rapidly from the $.260 vicinity. Since then the Jan contract had been on a bull-run as weather forecasts got colder and colder. In fact when trading adjourned last Fri, it had accelerated to $.373, with Feb & Mar just slightly below. Pipeline Basis pricing was also strengthening, although nothing even remotely comparable to 2014.

 

But today, the NYMEX is moving down as market makers evidently see some potential warmth around the corner. The Jan contract is now trading around $.352 with Feb & Mar just slightly lower. The 7 summer months now average $.336 and next winter trades at $.351. Calendar 2017 can now be locked in at $.342, while 2018 is much more attractive at $.306 and both 2019 and 2020 are real bargains at $.294.

 

Recent higher gas pricing has resulted in more coal-fired power generation. Last year at this time, coal use was at 32% while gas was just slightly ahead at 33%. But this year coal is leading gas 36% to 28%.

 

And how about the steady rise of WTI domestic crude oil, which is threatening to break thru the $55 per barrel plateau. The OPEC countries voted on a small production cut 2 weeks ago and now several non-OPEC countries (including Mexico and Russia) are joining the effort to trim the worldwide oil glut and thereby boost prices. But production in the US remains strong and gasoline pump prices below $2.30 per gallon remain available.

 

Meanwhile, there are plenty of energy-related protests underway in the energy sector. There is the on-going Dakota Access Pipeline battle over oil transport in North Dakota. And the Bering Sea Climate Resilience battle over oil drilling in Alaska. And the Ocean Energy Management battle over wind mills in the Atlantic Ocean. And on the subject of wasted energy, our millennials continue to protest the election results while unjustifiable re-counts try to somehow change that outcome.  

 

In the autumn of 2007, the DJIA was riding high at 13,600. But by the spring of 2009 it had bottomed out near 6,600. Now it is approaching 20,000 after a seven-plus year bull run. And the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 have also reached new record highs. Some thought the election was going to trigger a correction. Others think the pending Fed rate increase will stop the advance. As always, proper portfolio diversification for your age group and risk tolerance will be very important in 2017. 

 

Although the mid-point of Dec is still 4 days away, the nomination cycle for Jan gas is about to begin early due to the holiday schedule ahead. Jan is often a target month for big storage withdrawals but the threat of utility critical days puts a limit on things. So we have to be careful. Call me with any questions or concerns.

 

Thanks and Merry Christmas,

-Ray

 

PS… The Packers and Bears renew the NFL’s oldest rivalry on Sun Dec 18 in Chicago. Despite the problems that both teams have experienced at times this season, I’m expecting it to be a great game.

 

 

 

From: Shannon, Ray A:(Constellation)

Sent: Wednesday, November 23, 2016 12:17 PM

To: Info.IL – CNE Gas Illinois info

Subject: RE: NATURAL GAS UPDATE

 

Last week’s EIA report featured an unusual Nov injection of +30 bcf. And today’s report indicates a tiny withdrawal of just -2 bcf. So our national inventory is brim-full at 4045. And with Nov still on the warm side (despite this week’s chill) and no deep-freezes in the foreseeable future, the gas market remains a very affordable place to be… even though it has definitely moved higher since my last email.

 

The Dec NYMEX contract will expire next Mon and today is trading around $.303 per therm ($3.03 per dekatherm). If it stays in that vicinity, it will be the lowest Dec settlement price in 13 years, with the exception of last year when the gas market was collapsing under the influence of El Nino.

 

Jan, Feb and Mar are all trading above $.315 and next summer is averaging just slightly below that. Next winter is projected up around $.333 but the summer after that can be had for $.286. Cal 2017 currently averages $.316 while Cal 2018 is available at just $.301.

 

The recent uptick in energy prices pushed the Labor Dept’s Consumer Price Index up by .4% in Oct. It is up 1.6% for the year, the most since 2014. But that is still below the Fed’s 2% inflation target.

 

Meanwhile the Commerce Dept reports that new home construction soared by more than 25% in Oct, to a seasonally adjusted 1.3 million starts. That is the biggest gain since 1982.

 

But when it comes to personal incomes, half of working Americans have moved up during the past year while half have not. Furthermore the study by Bankrate.com indicates that of the half that made progress in 2016, over 50% got performance based raises, about 30% got cost-of-living adjustments and 10% were promoted to new responsibilities.

 

With the nice long Thanksgiving holiday weekend about to begin, I would like to express my sincere appreciation to you as a customer of mine.

Thanks for your business and best wishes to you and your family.

-Ray

 

Ray Shannon

Senior Business Development Manager

 

 

N21 W23340 Ridgeview Parkway

Waukesha, WI 53188

Office: 262-506-6613

Mobile: 262-506-4030

Email: ray.shannon@constellation.com

Customer service is my top priority, please rate your service experience with me.

 

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