New Year, New Beginning for Climate Action

2024 is a crucial year for climate action. The First Global Stocktake concluded at COP28 has laid down the roadmap to bolster global climate mitigation strategy. As a next step, in this New Year, governments will start to prepare their next round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). First The UAE, host of COP 28, has declared 2024 a the Year of Sustainability again. Baku was also named the host of COP 29 later in November this year. This sets the stage of climate action to continue being the focus worldwide.

The first stocktake has garnered mixed response from the environmentalists and scientists. While it deserves praise for pulling off many historical consensus, the outcome is far from perfect. For instance, it lacked firmer indicators regarding the speed and magnitude of worldwide climate initiatives. But it still marked a step forward in the right direction. 

Before we go into the details of the UAE Consensus reached at COP28 and the direction it has provided, let’s explore the basics of NDCs and the Global Stocktake. 

Nationally determined contributions (NDCs) refer to the domestic climate efforts taken by each country.  They are nation’s self-established medium-term climate pledges to help meet the global goal to pursue 1.5°C, adapt to climate impacts and ensure sufficient finance to support these efforts. The signatories of the Paris Agreement are required to prepare, communicate and execute these plans and actions and update them every five years with increasingly higher ambition. The next update is due for 2025. 

How can nations ensure they are on the right path in reaching the targets set by the Paris Agreement? Global Stocktake (GST) will provide this guidance. Conducted every five years, “Global Stocktake,” in the words of the UNFCCC “is like taking inventory.” It will assess the global response, evaluating the collective progress made in slashing greenhouse gas emissions, building resilience to climate impacts, and securing finance and support to address the climate crisis. The first-ever GST, dubbed the UAE Consensus, was concluded in December 2023 at COP28. Distilling over 1,600 documents from diverse sources and drawing from consultations across stakeholders, it has set the stage for the preparation of the next NDCs. 

The first GST was a two-year-long process which began at COP26 in Glasgow and involved the publication of a Synthesis Report in September 2023, which served as the foundation for the negotiations at COP28. Besides providing scientific inputs and recommendations on various scopes of action, the report warned that the window for keeping warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius was rapidly narrowing and that every increment of warming will come with more extreme weather events. 

Fossil Fuel and energy goals 

• In a landmark agreement, the UAE Consensus called on Parties to “transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade, so as to achieve net zero by 2050 in keeping with the science.” COP28 will go down in history as the first COP that addressed the elephant in the room –  Fossil fuel, the biggest contributor of global warming and climate crisis, was named for the first time, if not shamed. It further recommended accelerating efforts towards the phase-down of unabated coal power and phasing out of inefficient fossil fuel subsidies. Had it spelt out a firm deadline for the decline of fossil fuel usage, the message would have been stronger for future COPs. 

• The stocktake called on Parties to take actions towards achieving, at a global scale, a tripling of renewable energy capacity and doubling of energy efficiency improvements by 2030. The renewable energy goals reflect a pledge made by 130 countries at the start of the event. 
• It has urged nations to accelerate the reduction of emissions from road transport through development of infrastructure and deployment of zero and low-emission vehicles. 

• It called for acceleration of abatement and removal technologies such as carbon capture. However, scientists have expressed concern that carbon capture is not only unproven at scale, but also too expensive to adopt. They have also criticized that it is a distraction from policies to cut fossil fuel use.  

• The stocktake noted that global greenhouse gas emissions need to be cut 43% by 2030 and  60% by 2035, compared to 2019 levels, to limit global warming to 1.5°C. 
• Parties have been encouraged to come up with “ambitious, economy-wide emission reduction targets, covering all greenhouse gasses,” including methane and all sectors and categories in their 2025 NDCs. 

Finance and funding

The energy transition and other climate adaptation ambitions outlined in the GST necessitate a major shift in global funding. 

• COP28 has to be applauded for reaching a historic agreement on the operationalization of the loss and damage fund on the very first day. It was announced that the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction and the UN Office for Project Services will host the secretariat of the Santiago Network for Loss and Damage and will facilitate the provision of technical assistance to developing nations. 

• Parties agreed on targets for the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) and its framework, which included time-bound targets for sectors such as water and health. 
• A sticking point however was that except for a cursory mention that the financial gap is widening, the text did not include quantified targets to bridge it. 
• The discussion on setting up a ‘new collective quantified goal (NCQG) on climate finance’ was pushed to COP29 to be held in 2024. Negotiators will hold at least three technical expert dialogues leading up to the next COP to address the elements of the NCQG, including amounts the goal should aim for and its timeline. 
• For the first time, the Consensus recognised the role of credit rating agencies and called for scaling up of concessional and grant finance.  It underscored the importance of reforming the multilateral financial architecture, including multilateral development banks, institutional investors and other financial actors.  

• The GST text highlighted that the adaptation finance needs of developing countries are estimated at USD 215–387 billion annually up until 2030, and that about USD 4.3 trillion per year needs to be invested in clean energy up until 2030, increasing thereafter to USD 5 trillion per year up until 2050, to be able to reach net zero emissions. But it fell short of  urging developed countries to contribute more or guarantee adequate financial support.

What next? 

The first annual GST dialogue will be convened at the next UNFCCC meeting in June 2024, where countries will share best practice on using the GST outcome to inform their next NDCs.

The discussions surrounding the 'enhanced transparency framework' during COP28 have set the stage for a fresh phase in the implementation of the Paris Agreement. The completed version of the transparency tool, trialed during COP28,  is expected to be accessible to Parties by June 2024. 

At COP29, to be held in Azerbaijan in November 2024, governments must establish a new climate finance goal and at COP30 in Brazil in 2025, they must present their new NDCs. 

What can businesses do to help? 

While the governments go back to the drawing board and improvise their NDCs, businesses, communities and individuals should do their part in reducing carbon emission. Companies ought to frequently modify their operational models to achieve carbon neutrality. Setting measurable targets and practical deadlines; regularly assessing progress and revisiting sustainability reporting and investing in innovative technology in critical areas such as renewable energy and waste management are some of the ways in which businesses can contribute to addressing climate change. If your company is looking for guidelines on adopting sustainable practices across the value chain, reach out to us. The Ehfaaz’s team of expert consultants are here to handhold you through the process. 

What is Ehfaaz Doing to Help?

Ehfaaz took center stage at COP 28 as beutifully summarized in this article. From being founding members and signatories to Waste to Zero and the Road 2.0 Initiatives, to lending our voice for the reframing of Climate Finance, we did our part to show the world that staying on track to achive the 1.5 degree target is possible and within reach. Post-COP 28, we have intensified our efforts, first by releasing the first of its kind ebook, the Circular Chronicles. This has cemented our place as the defacto thought leaders championing the cause for climate action. Watch this space for more in 2024.

Downoad the e-book: https://bit.ly/3HukjAH

A Heartfelt Thank You to Our Circular Chronicles Community

From the depths of our green hearts, a massive thank you to our incredible readers around the world! Over the past year, your engagement with the Circular Chronicles has exceeded even our wildest dreams. Seeing your enthusiasm for climate knowledge fuels our passion and proves that together, we're building a bridge towards a sustainable future.

Every click, share, and insightful comment strengthens our belief that information has the power to spark action. You've shown us that there's a thirst for knowledge, a hunger for solutions, and a collective spirit willing to rise to the climate challenge.

As we move forward, your continued support empowers us to push the boundaries of thought leadership. We'll keep diving deeper, uncovering impactful solutions, and sharing them with the world – all thanks to you.

So, from the bottom of our eco-conscious hearts, thank you for being part of this incredible journey. Let's keep learning, sharing, and acting together.

Together, we can build a circular future, one informed step at a time.

With immense gratitude,

The Ehfaaz Team