Oman Cryptocurrencies adoption report 2022-2023

SQ Fund I 2022 Closing report

In early September we started a pilot crypto fund that closed its round with a profit of 8%, after a volatile few months that saw both gains and losses. In September, the team made successful long calls that resulted in profits.

In September, the market was recovering from a bearish period, so we made some smart long calls that resulted in profits.

Unfortunately, October and November were more challenging. We had planned for the ETH merge, but the calls had a negative impact on the fund and we saw a loss of 15%.

But as we moved into the end of November and beginning of December, there were some major macroeconomic events that helped us turn things around. 

We made a series of successful short calls on ETH, ADA, and BTC, which brought the fund back up to a 5% profit. And when the FTX scandal made the market bearish, we made some more short calls that brought us to our current profit of 8%.

Under these circumstances, we think the team did an excellent job and we're grateful for your participation in this round of the first crypto hedge fund out of Oman.

Our second Souq Analyst fund is now open for those who couldn’t subscribe in our first round and thankful to see that our pilot investors in the first round opted to roll to the second fund.

We’ve got some exciting plans for Souq Analyst 2023, stay tuned! 

2023 Outlook

It's looking like 2023 may not be the best year for Bitcoin. As of now, it's trading at around $17,212, which is down from about $19,500 on the eve of the FTX crisis. If the effects of the FTX bankruptcy continue to be felt, there's a chance that Bitcoin could fall even further.

 Institutions may be hesitant to invest in cryptocurrency in the near term due to the FTX crisis and other negative events. On top of that, with the market in a bit of a downturn and crypto's reputation taking a hit.

As for Ethereum, it's expected to follow a similar trajectory to recent crises and scandals, it's possible that Bitcoin could drop to the $13,000 range in 2023.

We think that Bitcoin's floor is somewhere around $13,000 and that recent developments may result in a "cascade of margin calls." We also think that Bitcoin's production cost, which is now $15,000, might fall to the $13,000 to $14,000 area witnessed over the summer. As for Ethereum, some analysts think it could rise as high as $2,500 in the next six months. However, this depends on the macroeconomic climate. If things don't improve, Ethereum could fall even further, potentially dropping back into the three-digit range.

As for other cryptocurrencies, the bear market isn't looking good for altcoins, and many may not survive. Stable coins may also face increased competition in 2023 due to the growing number of state-sponsored stable coin projects known as central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). China, in particular, is expected to ramp up its CBDC efforts.

Conclusion

Overall, the performance of the crypto fund in the past few months has been volatile, with both gains and losses. However, the team was able to turn things around in the latter part of the year with successful short calls on ETH, ADA, and BTC. While the outlook for Bitcoin and Ethereum in 2023 is uncertain and potentially bearish, there are also opportunities for profit in the market. The success of the fund and the decision of pilot investors to roll to the second fund suggests that there is still interest in cryptocurrency investment. It will be important for investors to stay informed and make strategic decisions in the coming year.