Population and Sustainability (4-minute Read)

I have been distracted after my last post in early February and I am sorry for not posting. Let us continue with our exploration of combating climate change and the restoration of our planet’s ability to sustain all human and non-human species.

In my last post, I presented information on the decoupling of economic growth and GHG emissions and used the US as an example. People may argue that the US is a bad example because it imports much of its consumer goods and raw materials from countries that emit more and more GHG such as China so basically the US in fact has been outsourcing emissions. I cannot offer any counter argument based on data. It is important therefore to look at fighting climate change by reduction in GHG emissions as a planetary issue that needs the cooperation of all countries. Many experts have pointed out that the population increase since the onset of industrial revolution and the associated increase of food and energy consumption is the main driver of the explosive uptake of GHG emissions. In addition, people in developed countries (Global North you may say) consume way more than their counterparts in developing and pre-development countries (Global South). For example, based on several authoritative studies, an American in average consumes resources of four planet, which is definitely unsustainable. Therefore, to control GHG emissions also means that we need to stabilize the population growth of our planet, besides other methods as discussed in earlier posts.It is therefore delightful that we are finally seeing a change in the course of worldwide population growth. According to the latest projections by the United Nations, future population growth may decline to less than 0.1%/year by the end of this century when the global population reach 10.9 billion. This projection also identifies Africa’s population is increasing more slowly and is due to flatten out. India’s and China’s population are projected to trend downward after peaking in the next decade or two.

More recent population projections by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) found that global population growth could reduce even more sharply than previously estimated. According to the projections, the global population will peak in 2064 at around 9.7 billion and decline to about 8.8 billion by 2100, with China’s population will shrink to around 730 million and India’s population will be around 1.1 billion. “Sub-Saharan Africa” and “North Africa and the Middle East” are the only two studied regions expected to have larger populations in 2100, while many of the fastest shrinking populations will be in Asia and Central and Eastern Europe.

The main drivers for population stabilization and decrease are the education and empowerment of women and girls, increased child survival rates, and access to affordable fertility management. Let’s investigate more on these drivers.  First of all, girls have been unfairly left out of the education systems in so many places. Educating girls of course should also mean educating along with boys. By improving the education to girls, they will learn important knowledge for them to contribute to their societies, improve their economic opportunities and thus delay the time of marriage and childbearing. Secondly the empowerment of women in their families, communities, and nations, and in the world. Needless to say, women should have the same decision-making power on family matters, as well as in workplace, local and national politics. Women should have control over the decisions about their bodies. Third, better education and health systems translate to sharp and continuing reduction of child mortality rates. Why is that so crucial? The confidence on the part of parents that their children will survive would propel the natural preference for smaller families. The fourth factor is access to knowledge and techniques of fertility management so that women and their partners and spouses can decide how many children to have and the spacing of children. The study from IHME cites improvements in access to modern contraception and the education of women and girls as major influences on these projections. An alternative scenario presented in the study even suggests that by meeting the United Nations targets for education and contraceptive access would lead to a global population of 6.29 billion in 2100.

Although projections from different institutions vary, the overall trend across estimates is that population will decline due to improvements in these factors around the world. Total fertility rates (TFR), which represent the average number of children delivered over the lifetime of a woman, are projected to decline around the world. According to the IHME study, by 2050, 151 countries are expected to fall below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman. By 2100, 183 of 195 countries will have TFR below the replacement level.

By taxing our planet less with fewer mouths to feed and by giving more care to the ecology, we should all be hopeful our planet will be a more hospitable place for everyone to enjoy.