I am not an expert on sanctions. I have learned about Haiti's sixty years of sanctions from the history books. I was born in 1940 and alive in 1952/53 when Iran was destabilized and in 1959 when the Cuban revolution and the confrontation of October 16, 1962. I have heard of Iran, the assassination of Mohammad Mosaddegh, the democratically elected president. Then there are sanctions on Yemen, Libya, Somalia, and Sudan with limited restrictions administered by the USA department of treasury, office of foreign asset control. Today, Venezuela, Russia, China, and Syria's executive order 13582 are in the sanctions mix.
What do sanctions do? Sanctions, if successful, destroy the economy of the state targeted. In its wake, the government cannot import or export; the country would lack the necessities for everyday living. Food would be scarce if the country is not self-sufficient, manufacturing may be in trouble, and the economy would stagnate, causing hunger, famine, and other maladies. The cruelty sanctions bring to a nation cannot be described in words; that is the misery the "One Nation Under God" gave to those who defy its will. Is that the Christian way?
Since 1804 with Haiti, there have been sanctions around. But, in the beginning, the strong placed sanctions on the weak, a mismatch, and there was nothing the weak could do but suffer. Some vulnerable nations have learned to live with the sanctions. Today, it is different; a rising China and resources-rich Russia challenge the USA's right to damage the well-being of millions with devastating sanctions. The answer is unknown as the battle between the falling West and the rising East is not yet decided.
With Russia asking her customers to pay in rubles and Saudi Arabia making a deal with China to pay for oil in yuan, the days of petrodollar sanctions are fast coming to an end. The war in Ukraine has set the stage for the re-alignment of the world's economic system, and the odds are that the West is on the losing side. Without Russian gas Europe will be cold or very expensive, heating their homes and holding manufacturing in place with USA's LNG; besides, it will take some time for infrastructure to be in place for USA's LNG (Liquified Natural Gas).
The West has used sanctions one time too many. Russia and China are not as vulnerable as Haiti, Venezuela, Iran, and Cuba. Pakistan bought wheat and gas the same day the war in Ukraine began. Although it has a border dispute with China, India is not shunning the Russia/ China alliance; they seem to be forming a solid block against the West; they are about half the world's population. Perhaps, the West has shot itself in the foot. Sanctions have lost their flavor; they are not as tasty as in the old colonial days.
Europe, especially Germany, says, what the hell did we do? We have to pay Russia in rubles, strengthen the economy we were trying to destroy; we did not think the Ukraine trap set to destroy Russia would have us in its jaws. Sanctions work, but they backfire sometimes. Doing the wrong thing comes with unintended consequences. The West has done bad things to nations for a long time; they think wrong is the norm and wrong is right. The situation in the world is upsidedown and has been for a long time.
Who would win the economic war between the West and East? I have no idea. I have said the odds are against the West; the truth is I do not know. Would people be suffering? Yes! The fight over profits of gas, oil, wheat, and other commodities will affect the world's economies; the sanctions banded around will hurt ordinary citizens of every nation. The war in Ukraine is a perfect teaching moment. Profits and power are driving the war hysteria, but the sons of the Western countries urging Ukraine to fight the Russians are not dying. Instead, the West put up a phony front, which gave the Ukrainians a false sense of security.
Despite the way the war ends, Ukraine loses. Cities are in shambles; the population is displaced, an economy is in disarray, a disorganized government, and a host of maladies that follows the aftermath of war. USA, China, or Russia would be on their way to the bank, depending on who wins the economic fight, while Ukrainians would be licking their battle wounds. But, believe it or not, Sanctions work in mysterious ways! Strangers the international corporations never knew died to ensure corporate profits never stop for the West. But, if the East wins, Ukrainians would have been killed in vain.
David LG Wilson
