Scandal, rule-benders, and election tensions

Stop the press!

NEXT.io wouldn’t want to be an executive at The Star Entertainment Group right now.

This week saw more bad news for the Australian casino chain, with the business reportedly struggling to stay afloat following a damning inquiry into its conduct.

As unlucky as the group have been lately, yet another scandal is looming, according to a report by The Brisbane Times titled Star secret: The bombshell casino report we can’t print.

The newspaper had obtained a full copy of the attorney general’s report into Star’s Queensland casino business partner, Hong Kong-based Chow Tai Fook Enterprises (CTFE).

However, the masthead was blocked from publishing its contents after CFTE was able to secure an injunction from the Queensland Supreme Court.

CTFE was reportedly informed of the upcoming report by the government after it was contacted by the paper for comment.

The controversy centred on whether the private investment holding company concealed its relationship with the infamous triad-linked junket boss Alvin Chau (pictured ).

This came after an ABC exclusive report that the business was involved with the now-jailed executive through a shared interest in Vietnam’s Hoiana Casino Resort.

The Queensland government ultimately approved CFTE’s 25% stake in Star’s Queenland property, stating “the evidence falls short of finding that the concealment was deliberate”.

It said: “The attorney-general found that CTFE lacked candour and fulsomeness in several dealings with [the regulator].

“This is understood to be based on differences in cultural and organisational expectations.”

With Queensland elections round the corner, the Liberal-National opposition party have vowed to publish the report in its entirety if they are victorious.

Now Star is requesting tax relief from the Queensland government to support its casino, amid concerns about its financial viability.

With Queensland premier Steven Miles currently polling well below his opponents, it at least for now appears his government’s Star is not rising.

Betting big on social media

In The Guardian ‘s latest “exclusive”, University of Bristol researchers allege that US online gambling firms are social media rule-benders, often breaching the industry’s marketing codes.

According to their study, BetMGM, DraftKings, ESPN Bet, and FanDuel published over a thousand social media posts in one week—75% of which didn’t include problem gambling support messages or helpline numbers, a clear breach of the American Gaming Association’s (AGA) rules.

They found that only paid ads complied with the code, while organic posts seem to be in a gamble of their own, potentially increasing risk among vulnerable groups.

Despite the AGA’s attempt to label the findings an “irresponsible misinterpretation,” the researchers remained firm.

Raffaello Rossi, a marketing lecturer at the University of Bristol, didn’t mince his words: “It feels like they are doing anything just to get people signing on,” Rossi said.

He noted the four firms collectively published an average of 237 social media posts and adverts each day.

“This relentless exposure can make gambling seem like a normal activity, increasing participation and risk among young and vulnerable groups,” Rossi said.

The Bristol review highlighted numerous posts that blurred the line between advertising and general content.

One such example was from FanDuel, which featured a tennis match where a bettor won $19,000 on an unexpected outcome.

Although the post didn’t include a direct link to the FanDuel Sportsbook, it also failed to provide problem gambling support messaging.

The AGA asserted that not all social media content should be classified as advertising. It only considers a post from a real-money sports wagering service to fall under this category if it contains a direct link to such a service.

The researchers, however, say all social media posts should be classified as advertising, with Rossi arguing that, regardless of sponsorship, these posts serve the same purpose—promoting the brand and its products.

Gamblers and pollsters at odds in US election

USA Today reported that betting markets put Donald Trump in the lead, while polls suggest Vice President Kamala Harris holds the edge. This is leaving many to wonder: who’s really got the winning hand?

In an August edition of Hot Copy , we reported that Trump led by 56% to Harris’ 41% on Polymarket. This now stands at 53% for Trump, compared to Harris’ 45%.

Polymarket is backed by investment from Peter Thiel. The PayPal co-founder was recently asked by vice president candidate JD Vance for help in bankrolling the Republican campaign.

The overseas betting platform also hired statistician Nate Silver as an adviser in July. Silver came to prominence after his prediction model correctly predicted the 2008, 2012, and 2020 US election results to a high degree of accuracy.

Interestingly, the year Silver’s model was incorrect was in 2016 when Trump won the election.

Trump also leads on Betfair Exchange, but wagers are down from $2.23bn placed on the 2020 election to $78m in 2024. Although, as Election Day approaches, expect those numbers to skyrocket.

Meanwhile, New Zealand-based online prediction market PredictIt puts Harris ahead of Trump.

With these odds in mind, it’s important to note that betting on US elections is banned stateside, so these figures reflect international markets and the opinions of bettors who might not even be casting a ballot.

Nevertheless, the odds-on favourite has only lost twice since 1866. But much like Silver’s prediction model, one of these years was 2016 with the Trump curveballs defying both odds-makers and pollsters. Could lightning strike twice?

The polls tell a different story, with Harris leading in a number of polls. The average currently stands at around 49% for Harris to Trump’s 46% in national polls. These percentages tighten in swing states like Pennsylvania and Georgia.

Whether bettors or pollsters have the edge remains to be seen, but one thing is clear: in the unpredictable world of US politics, anything can happen.

Both sides are ready to roll the dice, with all eyes on next week’s presidential debate as Harris and Trump face off on stage for the first time.

Image Credit (Kamala Harris): Gage Skidmore

Image Credit (Donald Trump): Gage Skidmore

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