Smarterscout's Top Transfers (Summer '24)

As the summer transfer window goes on, we will be updating a column focused on some of the most notable moves in recent days, using Smarterscout’s advanced metrics and league benchmarking to forecast how they might pan out.

Francisco Conceição (FC Porto to Juventus on loan)

Juventus have added another winger to their ranks as Francisco Conceição has joined the club on a season-long loan from FC Porto.

He was among the most prolific dribblers in Portugal last season, averaging about 3.2 successful take-ons and 6.1 progressive carries per 90 in the league as he loved to receive the ball out wide on the right wing and drive towards the goal. Although he could not break into double digits in terms of goals and assists, his shot-creating actions per 90 average of 5.16 shows that he definitely has the potential to get on the scoresheet more often.

For such a high-volume dribbler, Conceição showed great ball retention as he was only dispossessed 1.14 times per 90 and completed well over 80% of his passes. All things considered, our model believes he should be considered another dangerous attacker in Juventus’ arsenal.

Matt O’Riley (Celtic to Brighton & Hove Albion)

Brighton & Hove Albion have signed Matt O’Riley for nearly €30 million.

The Danish midfielder has starred for Celtic for the last two and a half years, meaning he should continue to excel in the English Premier League as long as he is utilised in the right role. He put up some incredible numbers last season, scoring 18 goals and setting up 13 others in the league.

O’Riley has a very specific profile as an excellent diminutive technician in midfield who thrives in advanced areas. His understanding of space and movement is excellent both between the lines and into the box, and he almost has magnetic control over the ball once he receives it. He is not the strongest in defensive duels deeper in midfield, so as long as he is shielded away from those situations, he should prove to be a fantastic signing.

Nico González (Fiorentina to Juventus)

Juventus have signed Nico González on loan with an obligation to buy in a deal worth about €38 million altogether.

The Argentine winger has consistently impressed for Fiorentina since moving to Italy in 2021 and enjoyed his best campaign last term, scoring as many as 12 league goals. He stands out as a dangerous individual attacker out wide on the right wing as he can trouble defenders with his lively dribbling while cutting inside onto his favored left foot but is also able to get in behind.

Thiago Motta’s tactics do have space for such an opposite-footed winger who likes to cut inside and shoot as Riccardo Orsolini hit double digits for league goals for Bologna last season. González will hope to repeat that trick, though he will also be able to provide some added depth on the left if needed.

Jack Clarke (Sunderland to Ipswich Town)

Ipswich Town have signed Jack Clarke for about €18 million.

The Leeds United academy graduate was on the books at Spurs for three years but never managed to break into the first team, ultimately leaving for Sunderland in 2022. With 24 goals and 15 assists in his two full Championship seasons, he certainly made quite a name for himself at the Stadium of Light.

The 23-year-old Englishman is a very exciting attacker who comes to life with the ball at his feet. He completed by far the most progressive carries in the Championship last season with a tally of over 300 at a rate of 7.89 per 90, also averaging over 7 take-ons attempted in the same time frame. As his aforementioned output numbers suggest, he definitely has the end product to boot.

Unsurprisingly, our model thinks he is absolutely ready to make the step up to the Premier League. His signing takes Ipswich’s transfer spend into nine digits, so they should hope to put up a good fight for survival.

Samuel Omorodion (Atlético Madrid to FC Porto)

FC Porto have struck a great deal to sign Samuel Omorodion for just €15 million, with Atlético Madrid retaining a 50% sell-on clause.

The 20-year-old striker enjoyed a breakout season at Alavés last term, scoring 8 goals in just over 21 La Liga 90s’ worth of playing time. In the process, he showed clever movement in behind and especially into the box, and used his physicality well to win duels and make himself a nuisance in the danger area. His chance conversion was not the best as he underperformed his xG by nearly 3 goals, but that only shows that he has the potential to get even better.

Porto should be delighted to sign Omorodion ahead of the likes of Chelsea and Aston Villa. They will hope to see him shine in the Primeira Liga as our model expects and seem to be counting on making a big profit on him in the long run, having included a €100 million release clause in his contract.

İlkay Gündoğan (Barcelona to Manchester City)

İlkay Gündoğan has returned to Manchester City on a free transfer, just one year after leaving for Barcelona.

Season after season, he has proven himself to be a supremely intelligent midfielder with great versatility and a knack for making telling contributions at crunch time. He even slotted into defensive midfield for Barcelona at times but should return to an attacking number eight role for the English champions, from where his perfectly-timed runs into the box and composed finishing should continue to break deadlocks.

Letting him go is a baffling decision from Barcelona’s perspective, but their loss is Manchester City’s gain as they can head into 2024/25 with a near-unchanged yet perfectly well-rounded squad even after making the summer’s biggest sale.

Sepp van den Berg (Liverpool to Brentford)

Brentford have signed Sepp van den Berg from Liverpool.

Although he barely ever featured for the Reds, the 22-year-old defender has a good track record at the senior level. He enjoyed a successful loan spell at Preston North End in 2021/22, made a bit of a misstep by moving to Schalke in the subsequent season but more than recovered last term by impressing for Mainz.

A strong dueler, he won as many as 5.4 aerial duels per 90 on average in the Bundesliga last season, accumulating the highest tally among defenders in the division. He also used his big frame to good effect while defending deep, additionally showing great positional sense, anticipation and recovery pace while making 5.1 clearances and 2.1 blocks per 90 last season.

This definitely should be a win-win-win transfer as the Dutchman gets the promise of regular game time both in the short and long term, Brentford get a defender suited to their style of play and Liverpool get a handy fee for a player who was surplus to requirement.

Thierno Barry (Basel to Villarreal)

Villarreal’s intriguing recruitment has continued with the signing of Thierno Barry for €14 million.

The French striker scored 20 goals in the Belgian second tier in 2022/23, earning himself a move to Basel. It took him over half the season to score his first Super League goal, but once he started he barely stopped again. Barry scored 9 goals and provided 3 assists in a 15-game spell last season and has started the new campaign on fire with 5 goals in 3 games.

The 21-year-old striker profiles as a direct attacking threat with great pace, supreme strength in aerial duels and movement into dangerous shooting positions in the box. He could yet improve the timing of his runs as well as the consistency of his finishing among other things but already has good potential to make an impact in La Liga.

Villarreal had an exciting attacking line going into the season but lacked a focal point in the shape of a line-leading striker, so a player like Barry is exactly who they needed to sign.

João Félix (Atlético Madrid to Chelsea)

João Félix has finally left Atlético Madrid for good, joining Chelsea in a €50 million deal.

Signed for a nine-digit transfer fee from Benfica, it is safe to say that the Portuguese attacker did not quite live up to his potential in the Spanish capital. He tantalisingly continued to show glimpses of it on loan at Chelsea in 2022/23 and most recently with Barcelona last season where his exciting link-up passing and dribbling got fans off their seats and earned him 10 league goal involvements.

Critically, Félix has struggled for consistency, and it is tough to imagine that changing at a Chelsea side which has developed quite a reputation for being a volatile environment. So, this seems another risky big-money move for the Blues.

Conor Gallagher (Chelsea to Atlético Madrid)

Atlético Madrid have signed Conor Gallagher for €42 million.

The young Englishman is exactly the sort of battle-hardened box-to-box midfielder that Diego Simeone will appreciate. He can be a good ball-winner as he averaged 3.7 tackles and interceptions per 90 in the Premier League last season, but he also does well on the ball offering great retention and link-up passing before going on to pop up in dangerous areas in the final third to produce some attacking output.

Between French international Antoine Griezmann and summer signings Julián Alvarez and Alexander Sørloth, Atléti already have a good deal of attacking firepower. So, Gallagher will have to play more of a water-carrier role in midfield for which he is quite well-equipped.

Luiz Júnior (Famalicão to Villarreal)

Having solid Filip Jörgensen to Chelsea, Villarreal have invested about half the sum they received to sign Luiz Júnior.

On paper at least, this looks like a very good move. The young Brazilian goalkeeper has four full seasons worth of senior experience under his belt at just 23 years old, having consistently impressed for Portuguese side Famalicão. He already is an above-average shot-stopper who outperformed his PSxG by over 10 goals last season, and he commands his box very well having stopped over 10% of the crosses that came in last term.

Luiz Júnior also does a good job of sweeping when necessary and can be a handy ball-player, though he could yet develop the variety of his passing. Either way, he should quickly become a mainstay in Marcelino’s side.

Georginio Rutter (Leeds United to Brighton & Hove Albion)

Brighton & Hove Albion’s big window has continued with the signing of Georginio Rutter for a club-record fee in excess of €45 million.

The 22-year-old forward is exactly the kind of player who can consistently get fans off their seats as he loves to drop and drift around to pick up the ball before bringing it forward through incisive passing or electric dribbling. As a high-risk attacker, his ball retention is naturally low but that is well worth the trade-off for the threat he can single-handedly create.

Rutter still has a good deal of work to do in improving the consistency of his attacking output, as his decision-making in the final third can be hit-and-miss and his finishing can be quite poor. If he develops his game in those respects, though, he could well prove to be worth the big fee in the long run.

Arthur Theate (Rennes to Eintracht Frankfurt)

Eintracht Frankfurt have signed Arthur Theate on a season-long loan with an option to buy.

He should slot right into the left center-back position as a regular starter, and our model expects him to do a good job in the Bundesliga. The Belgian international is solid enough defensively as he can get through a good deal of work and is not easily beaten in duels but he definitely stands out more on the ball. He is a top-class progressor as he averaged nearly 6 progressive passes per 90 last season to go with 1.42 progressive carries.

Eintracht Frankfurt alternated between a back three and back four under Dino Toppmöller last season, but that will not be a problem for Theate as he can do a good job on the left in either system.

Youssouf Fofana (Monaco to Milan)

Milan have signed Youssouf Fofana for €20 million in what should go down as a brilliant deal.

The French international has excelled season after season for Monaco in Ligue 1, showing himself to be quite a well-rounded midfielder. He can offer excellent defending quality with good quantity as well as playing a key role on the ball thanks to his high-volume progression via passing, carrying and taking on opponents.

Fofana’s profile is pretty interesting as he is not quite positionally disciplined and secure on the ball enough to operate as a lone number six, but his defensive strength would be wasted to an extent as a number eight. So, playing in a double pivot in the midfield seems the best way forward for him, and that is exactly what he should be expected to do in Paulo Fonseca’s system at Milan.

Désiré Doué (Rennes to Paris Saint-Germain)

Paris Saint-Germain are continuing to pursue a heavily youth-focused transfer policy this summer. Having already signed 22-year-old defender Willian Pacho and 19-year-old midfielder João Neves, they have now added teenage playmaker Désiré Doué to their ranks.

A product of Rennes’ famed academy, he has over 3,500 minutes’ worth of senior action under his belt across the last two seasons. A right-footed attacker, he likes to start on the left side of the pitch – be it on the wing or in midfield – and cut inside with his electric dribbling. His average of over 3.5 successful take-one per 90 was the fourth-best in Ligue 1 last season, and he was the only one in the top 15 with a success rate over 60%.

Clearly, Doué already is a mightily exciting player to watch, but he has a lot of room to develop. His eight goal involvements last season is not bad a return, but it could get a lot better if he improves his decision-making in the final third and end product since he gets into dangerous positions very frequently already. If they handle his development carefully, PSG could well have another attacking superstar on their hands.

Evanilson (FC Porto to Bournemouth)

Bournemouth have smashed their club-record transfer fee to sign Evanilson.

The Brazilian striker spent the last four seasons with Porto, for whom he scored 60 goals in just over 150 appearances. He offers more than just goals to his side as he can drop back and get involved in the build-up a fair bit, offering great retention with secure passing besides using his body strength to hold the ball. With 12 assists in the last three Primeira Liga seasons, he can also create chances for his teammates.

The 24-year-old striker’s return of 46 goal involvements across the last three league seasons is impressive, but it could be better yet. He has marginally underperformed his xG throughout his time in Portugal, so he could do a better job of putting away the chances he does so well to get on the end of.

Evanilson definitely has the potential to be a success in the Premier League, and his all-round finishing might just decide whether or not he can realize it.

Wilson Odobert (Burnley to Tottenham Hotspur)

Wilson Odobert has joined Tottenham Hotspur for a reported fee of around €40 million.

The young winger only has two full seasons of senior football under his belt, first with Troyes for whom he registered 6 goals and assists in Ligue 1, after which he moved to Burnley and got on the scoresheet five times in the Premier League. Clearly, he still is a pretty raw talent who needs to work on the consistency of his attacking output, but he definitely has the potential to explode as a great one-on-one dribbler.

At just 19 years old, Odobert has a long time to develop but should already be a good stylistic fit for the wide left winger role in Ange Postecoglu’s system, so this move should work out well for all involved.

Bojan Miovski (Aberdeen to Girona)

Aberdeen have received a club-record fee for the sale of Bojan Miovski to Girona.

The North Macedonia international scored 44 goals across two seasons for the Dons, having joined the club from MTK Budapest in 2022 for €650,000 in what seems a bargain deal now. He has evolved into a handy finisher in Scotland as he gets into the box very well and can put all sorts of chances away from various angles.

The step up from the Premiership to La Liga is quite a big one, and Miovski’s low overall involvement, lack of outstanding strength in duels and slight xG underperformance over his two league seasons in Scotland are some potential concerns. That is why our model is rather pessimistic about how well his attacking output will translate to Spain, although he could well prove to be a success as long as he capitalizes on the service his teammates will undoubtedly provide.

Marco Reus (Borussia Dortmund to LA Galaxy)

The LA Galaxy have signed Marco Reus in one of the biggest moves of Major League Soccer’s mid-season transfer window.

As one would expect, our model believes the Borussia Dortmund legend should be a standout performer in MLS. His fitness and availability will be the only question marks just as they have been throughout his career, but he should produce fantastic attacking output whenever he is on the pitch.

Reus’ intelligent movement and top-class on-ball ability contribute to his excellent link-up play, which should prove particularly valuable in the Galaxy’s dynamic attack. They are already averaging just under 2 goals per game this season, but could well cross that threshold if the former German international makes an instant impact.

Brajan Gruda (Mainz to Brighton & Hove Albion)

Brighton & Hove Albion have spent big to sign Brajan Gruda.

For a club known to find bargains with great regularity, the €30 million they have spent for this deal is quite a big transfer fee for a player with just one senior season under his belt. Gruda did show signs of great promise in the Bundesliga last season, though, registering 4 goals and 3 assists in just over 18 matches’ worth of playing time in the process.

Putting the money aside for a moment, there is no denying the German youth international’s massive potential, and some of his underlying numbers from last season underscore that. An electric dribbler with great pace and skill, his average of over 8 take-ons attempted per 90 was the second-highest in the league. His end product was not half bad either, as his 5.65 shot-creating actions per 90 placed him seventh in the division in that respect.

If the 20-year-old attacker is able to maintain the level of performance he showed last term, our model thinks we could see him lighting up the Premier League quite quickly.

Matthijs de Ligt (Bayern Munich to Manchester United)

Manchester United have signed Matthijs de Ligt for a transfer fee of €45 million plus up to €5 million in add-ons in what should go down as a very good deal.

Still just 25 years old, the Dutch defender has a mightily impressive CV having represented Ajax, Juventus and Bayern Munich already. Our model expects him to do pretty well in the English Premier League, and his versatility in being able to play on either side should prove very useful in allowing him to start alongside various partners.

De Ligt is a very well-rounded center-back who can offer great defending quality thanks to his handy strength in duels and excellent anticipation and positional sense, which more than make up for a slight lack of pace in a high line. He is great on the ball as well, retaining possession exceptionally well, playing a key role in the build-up and helping out with some progression too. Having worked with Erik ten Hag at Ajax previously, the Dutch international could become a key figure in Manchester United’s defense very quickly.

Noussair Mazraoui (Bayern Munich to Manchester United)

Noussair Mazraoui has followed De Ligt in going from Munich to Manchester, having previously played for Ajax as well.

For €15 million, this seems a shrewd signing as the Moroccan international should offer the Red Devils quality depth across multiple positions and roles. A right back by trade, he stands out as a versatile ball player in that position as he can help progress the ball from deep or even tuck into central spaces to play alongside the midfielders. His ball retention remains excellent throughout, while his defending quality can be decent enough too.

The 26-year-old defender can also do a job at left back if needed, again in a ball-playing role in which he can use his right-footedness to access unique progression angles from deeper positions. Since Manchester United’s squad needed reinforcing on both sides of the back line, Mazraoui is a brilliant addition who kills two birds with one stone.

Emerson Royal (Tottenham Hotspur to Milan)

Milan have signed Emerson Royal for a reasonable transfer fee of €15 million.

Our model expects him to do a solid job in all aspects on the right of the Rossoneri’s defense. The Brazilian right back is not too remarkable in most respects, although he is quite strong in duels particularly when defending one-against-one, and his ball retention can be very good as well thanks to his secure passing.

Emerson will have to compete with club captain Davide Calabria for the starting spot at right back, unless Paulo Fonseca finds a way to fit both of them in the same line-up. Our model finds very little to separate them, so their internal battle will be interesting to follow in 2024/25.

Julián Álvarez (Manchester City to Atlético Madrid)

Atlético Madrid have smashed this summer’s transfer record to sign Julián Álvarez for a base fee of €75 million plus up to €20 million worth of add-ons.

As should be expected with such a massive sum involved, our model expects the Argentine international to shine in La Liga. The versatile forward started in all sorts of positions from striker to central midfielder for Manchester City last season, but he always ended up in the central areas between the lines behind a lead striker in a second striker-type role in possession.

If Diego Simeone continues to use him that way, he can expect to see top-class ball retention even in tight spaces, some lovely link-up play and supremely clever intelligent off-ball movement both between the lines and into the box to get on the end of chances. Álvarez registered 19 goals and 13 assists across all competitions for Manchester City last season, so his new head coach should be delighted with something similar this term.

Pedro Neto (Wolverhampton Wanderers to Chelsea)

Chelsea have spent €60 million to sign Pedro Neto.

The Portuguese winger’s quality is unquestionable – he is absolutely electric when he gets going and poses an incredibly well-rounded attacking threat. He has the skill to skin defenders one-on-one, the pace to burn defenses in transition, the intelligent off-ball movement to get into dangerous areas as well as the composure in the final third to produce great attacking output.

The big question mark, however, is his fitness. The 24-year-old attacker has missed over 100 matches over the last three seasons due to a variety of injury issues, so his potential lack of availability makes this a very big gamble for a Chelsea side that does not even need wingers so desperately.

Jean-Clair Todibo (Nice to West Ham United)

West Ham United have signed Jean-Clair Todibo after striking a loan deal with Nice with a conditional obligation to buy for about €40 million.

This seems another good deal in the defensive department for the Hammers. The 24-year-old center-back has proven his quality over the last few seasons at Nice, offering very good defending quality thanks in part to his exceptional strength in ground duels, and also using it to be an excellent ball carrier and dribbler.

After struggling with injury issues early on in his career, Todibo has shown good fitness in recent years having played over 2,500 minutes in each of his three full seasons in France. With a continued clean bill of health, he will become a mainstay in West Ham’s backline.

Dominic Solanke (Bournemouth to Tottenham Hotspur)

Tottenham Hotspur have struck a record-breaking deal with Bournemouth to sign Dominic Solanke for a base transfer fee close to €65 million.

The 26-year-old forward is the exact sort of profile Spurs’ squad seems to need. He has developed into an excellent line-leading striker who is good in the air and can hold the ball up quite well before getting into the box with great consistency as 17 of his 19 Premier League goals last season came from within the penalty area. He can also lead a press quite well with a very good work rate, so he should be a perfect fit for Ange Postecoglu’s system.

Of course, the sum Tottenham have paid to sign him will put hum under a good deal of pressure to deliver right from the off, but it is worth noting that they had to trigger his release clause. If Solanke can maintain the level of performance he has shown in recent years for the duration of his six-year contract, he will prove to be well worth his transfer fee.

David de Gea (Free Agent to Fiorentina)

Fiorentina have signed David de Gea on a one-season contract with an option to extend for a further year.

The former Spain international sat out the 2023/24 season after being released by Manchester United. His performance levels in his last few seasons with the Red Devils were well below par, so his departure always looked inevitable. He still was a great shot-stopper in certain scenarios, but his goal prevention on the whole was quite poor while his weak ball-playing ability was another concern.

Fiorentina will reportedly pay him a net annual salary of €3 million, so this does not seem a great move from any angle.

Dani Olmo (RB Leipzig to Barcelona)

Barcelona have spent €55 million to sign Euro 2024 standout Dani Olmo.

The Spanish midfielder used Europe’s biggest stage to showcase his talents as an advanced number eight, so his quality should not be much of a question.

However, spending such a sum on a player who has managed to play over 1,500 league minutes in just one of the last five seasons is a questionable decision, particularly for a club with known financial difficulties that could use reinforcements in many positions other than midfield. Barcelona already had to make a stacked midfield including the likes of İlkay Gündoğan, Pedri, Gavi and Frenkie de Jong as well as strong back-up options such as Fermín López and Pablo Torre, so this does not seem a smart move from a squad-building angle.

Willian Pacho (Eintracht Frankfurt to Paris Saint-Germain)

Paris Saint-Germain have reinforced their defense with the arrival of Willian Pacho.

They definitely suffered from a lack of a consistent starter in the left center-back position last season, so this could prove to be an important signing. Our model considers the 22-year-old defender a young player to watch but also believes he should be fit for Ligue 1 already on the basis of his last season at Eintracht Frankfurt.

Pacho stands out as an exceptionally strong ground dueller out of possession with very good defending quality overall. He is handy on the ball too, offering good progression through dribbling and passing.

The Ecuadorian international is no stranger to adapting to new surroundings having made moves in each of the last two years. He left Independiente del Valle for Royal Antwerp in January 2022 and then moved to Frankfurt in the summer of 2023. If he gets a starting spot from the off, he could well prove himself to be worth the €40 million transfer fee quite quickly.

Mateo Retegui (Genoa to Atalanta)

Atalanta have signed Mateo Retegui, paying Genoa a transfer fee of €22 million plus a bit more in potential add-ons. That may be a little over his estimated transfer value, but it is very close to the amount Il Grifone spent last summer to sign him from Tigre.

Retegui’s first season in Serie A was alright as he scored 7 goals to finish as Genoa’s second-highest scorer. His work in Argentina was more impressive, though, as he hit double-digits in terms of league goals in each of the last two years, showing brilliant movement into the box, better shooting and decent ball retention.

Those are the levels Atalanta will need Retegui to hit if he is to be an adequate stand-in for Gianluca Scamacca, whose long-term ACL injury likely prompted this signing.

Tim Ream (Fulham to Charlotte FC)

Tim Ream is returning to Major League Soccer after signing a contract running until December 2026 with Charlotte FC, who have the option to extend it by a year.

The USMNT defender left the league in 2012 when he moved from the New York Red Bulls to Bolton Wanderers, from whom he joined Fulham three years later. After nine years and over 300 appearances for the Cottagers, he will return to MLS as one of the league’s most experienced defenders.

Even at 36 years old, our model believes Ream should be able to hold his own in a Charlotte FC defense that is the second-best in the league this year. He remains a strong aerial dueller with decent overall defending quality and can also offer good upsides on the ball with his excellent retention and line-breaking carrying.

Guido Rodríguez (Real Betis to West Ham United)

West Ham United’s busy week has continued with the signing of Guido Rodríguez.

Joining on a free transfer after the end of his contract with Real Betis, the 30-year-old midfielder should be a good addition to the Hammers’ squad. His last season was hampered by an ankle injury that kept him out for over three months, but he was fit enough to win over 60% of his duels when he did play and was a part of Argentina’s Copa América-winning squad this summer. The season before, he averaged 7.7 duels won per 90 at a similar average to go with 3.7 tackles and interceptions, standing out as one of La Liga’s best midfield destroyers.

Clearly, Rodríguez offers great defending quantity and quality as well as handy ball retention. His attacking contribution is low, but that can easily be made up for as his presence frees up some of his teammates to get forward and do the damage. All things considered, this seems a great move for West Ham.

Niclas Füllkrug (Borussia Dortmund to West Ham United)

West Ham United have signed Niclas Füllkrug on a four-year contract, paying Borussia Dortmund a transfer fee close to €30 million. The German side will certainly be pleased with that deal as they have made a near-100% profit on the fee they paid for the 31-year-old striker last summer.

Our model is not convinced that the German international will go well in the Premier League based on his work at Borussia Dortmund. He is a good fit for West Ham’s style of play as a hard-working line-leading striker with intelligent movement, strength in aerial duels, handy hold-up play and good finishing, but the big question is how his average of just over 2 shots per 90 in the Bundesliga last season will translate to a mid-table English Premier League team.

Add to that the fact that the Hammers have paid about twice his estimated transfer value and handed him a four-year contract when he is well past the age of 30, and this does not look like the best piece of business for them.

João Neves (Benfica to Paris Saint-Germain)

Paris Saint-Germain have struck a €60 million deal to sign João Neves. Benfica might have anticipated earning a massive nine-digit transfer fee from his sale at one point, so this has to go down as a brilliant deal for the French champions.

The teenage midfielder enjoyed a breakout season last term as he established himself as a key starter and impressed everyone – ourselves included – with his relentless work rate, defensive strength and handy on-ball qualities.

Our model expects Neves to be an instant hit in Ligue 1 as his athleticism and strength in duels should translate very well, as should his ability to recover moving balls, ball retention and forward carrying through tight spaces. He could also offer a decent bit of attacking output as well if given the freedom. All being well, the young Portuguese international should lock down a defensive midfield spot in PSG’s XI for years to come.

Derek Cornelius (Malmö to Marseille)

Derek Cornelius has joined fellow Canadian international Ismaël Kone in moving to Marseille.

The 25-year-old defender has had quite a career path so far. He started off in the lower tiers of German football with VfB Lübeck before moving to Serbian side Javor, then went across to MLS with the Vancouver Whitecaps from whom he joined Panetolikos after two and a half years, and then finally joined Malmö in early 2023. After winning a couple of titles and impressing for the Swedish giants, he has earned yet another transfer.

Our model believes Cornelius has been ready for Ligue 1 for a few years now as his exceptional strength in aerial and defensive duels as a high-volume defender with decent quality should prove useful in France. He isn’t particularly remarkable on the ball but can serve as a secure circulator while also offering simple progression, so he has no noteworthy drawbacks to weigh down his defensive upsides.

Crysencio Summerville (Leeds United to West Ham United)

West Ham United have signed Championship Player of the Season Crysencio Summerville for around €30 million.

The Dutch youth international recorded 19 goals and 9 assists in the league thanks to his dynamic threat on the left wing. He can receive the ball out wide and beat defenders while dribbling infield or drift into the halfspace to receive on the turn and use his excellent close control and strength in ground duels to emerge out of tight spaces. Additionally, his lively link-up play, good decision-making in the final third and powerful ball-striking make him an incredibly well-rounded attacker.

Unsurprisingly, our model expects Summerville to continue to shine in the Premier League. West Ham should be delighted to have signed him ahead of a whole host of competitors –  at a perfectly reasonable fee at that.

Artem Dovbyk (Girona to Roma)

Roma have swooped in to sign Artem Dovbyk.

They have struck a €30.5 million deal with Girona just one season after the Ukrainian international moved to Catalonia. In that time, he scored as many as 24 goals in La Liga to finish as the competition’s top scorer in 2023/24. He scored precisely as many goals in the previous Ukrainian Premier League season, so his recent track record has been sensational.

Naturally, then, our model expects him to go well in Serie A. The 27-year-old forward produces a great deal of attacking output through his shooting from inside the box, which is aided by his excellent movement and great strength in duels. His link-up passing is pretty good too and he retains the ball well, so he should be a great fit for Daniele De Rossi’s system.

Osame Sahraoui (Heerenveen to Lille)

Osame Sahraoui is joining Lille in a deal worth €7.6 million.

The 21-year-old left winger has the potential to light up Ligue 1 with his electric dribbling as he attempted a whopping 9.5 take-ons per 90 in the Eredivisie last season! He rides challenges well and is very strong in ground duels, but his sensational skills make him stand out.

Of course, the Norwegian youth international loves to see a lot of the ball, but unlike many flairy wingers, he does not suffer from a lack of end product. He returned with a team-high 12 goals and assists for Heerenveen in the Eredivisie last season, producing enough attacking output to be sufficiently impressive in France as far as our model is concerned.

With Sahraoui on the left and Edon Zhegrova on the right, Lille could have one of the most entertaining wing pairings in 2024/25.

Strahinja Pavlović (RB Salzburg to Milan)

Milan have spent €18 million to sign Strahinja Pavlović.

Our model expects him to go well in Serie A as long as he can continue using his intense front-footed defensive style. Standing at 6′4″, he is naturally dominant in the air but also uses his frame and strength to great effect to run through attackers as he steps up to make challenges. In his last season in the Austrian Bundesliga, the Serbian center-back won over 9 duels per 90 on average!

Of course, such a front-footed defensive approach means he can be caught out of position at times. In such cases, though, his rapid pace and tireless work rate enable him to track back quite quickly while his fellow defenders hold the line.

All of these attributes also contribute to Pavlović’s fantastic progressive ball-carrying as he is almost impossible to shake off the ball even as he breaks lines. His passing is not particularly outstanding but decent enough, though he could yet improve in that respect as he is just 23 years old.

Given his age, the Serbian international definitely has the potential to develop into one of the world’s best center-backs, so this is a great deal for the Rossoneri.

Filip Jörgensen (Villarreal to Chelsea)

Chelsea’s latest summer signing is Filip Jörgensen.

They have spent a transfer fee very close to €25 million on the young goalkeeper, not too far beyond his estimated transfer value of €20 million per Transfermarkt. Our model quite likes the look of him and thinks he could do well in the Premier League as he is a fantastic shot-stopper when faced by non-headers from open play at least and has also shown good ball-playing ability, particularly in terms of passing in the build-up.

At just 22 years old, the Danish shot-stopper has a good deal of time to polish his game and develop into a completely well-rounded goalkeeper. Even after just one full season in senior football, he definitely is in with a shout of being Chelsea’s first-choice keeper under new head coach Enzo Maresca.

Tarik Tissoudali (Gent to PAOK)

Tarik Tissoudali has joined PAOK on a two-year contract and a transfer fee of €2.2 million.

For that price, this is a brilliant deal for the Greek champions. Our model expects the Moroccan forward to tear up the Super League on the back of his exploits in Belgium. He scored 19 goals and provided 4 assists in the 2021/22 Pro League season, but an ACL tear kept him out of action for almost all of 2022/23. He came back strong last term, notching up 15 goal involvements.

Obviously, Tissoudali’s attacking output has been fantastic thanks to his clinical finishing and consistent shooting from dangerous areas. His link-up passing and dribbling can also be quite threatening, so opposition defences are going to have a very tough time against him in Greece.

Riccardo Calafiori (Bologna to Arsenal)

Arsenal have announced the long-awaited signing of Riccardo Calafiori.

The Italian defender enjoyed an outstanding season with Bologna in 2023/24, earning him a call-up to his country’s Euros squad as well as transfer interest from many of Europe’s top teams. Our model believes that was quite justified, as he should look great in the English Premier League as long as he maintains such a level of performance.

Calafiori’s on-ball qualities stood out the most as he showed excellent control and press-resistance, regularly stepping up into midfield to create unique angles in the build-up phase and carrying even further at times. Crucially, he was quite solid defensively too, averaging nearly 4 tackles and interceptions per 90.

Like Manchester City, Arsenal seem intent on lining up with four center-backs across their back line, so Calafiori will be the perfect addition on their left side as he can play at left back as well.

Samuel Dahl (Djurgården to Roma)

Roma have signed young left back Samuel Dahl.

He has been a regular starter for Swedish giants Djurgården for about a year now, having joined them last summer from second-tier side Örebro. In that time, he has proven himself to be a top-class modern full-back prospect who is just as comfortable out wide as he is coming infield.

Dahl is quite secure and composed on the ball as he receives and passes it with great control and carries it forward well after identifying gaps to run into. Going forward, he has a decent burst of pace to overlap and can fizz balls into the box or play more intricate creative passes from more central positions. He is very solid defensively as well, winning nearly 60% of his duels in Allsvenskan this year and averaging 2.33 tackles per 90.

Our model flags the 21-year-old Swedish defender as a young player to watch and believes he should look comfortable in Serie A already. Considering the system Daniele De Rossi adopted towards the end of last season, he should be a great fit for Roma from a tactical perspective as well.

Robin Le Normand (Real Sociedad to Atlético Madrid)

Atlético Madrid have spent around €35 million to sign Robin Le Normand.

The 27-year-old center-back joins on the back of a couple of strong seasons with Real Sociedad and a Euro 2024 title-winning campaign in which he played a major part. He started on the right of Spain’s back line as a right-footer, although he has spent most of his time at the club level on the left thanks to his versatility.

Our model considers Le Normand a high performer in La Liga as he consistently shows good defending quality and ball retention, can play a major role in his side’s build-up play through his excellent link-up passing and dribbling, and dominates aerial duels in open play.

Alejandro Francés (Real Zaragoza to Girona)

Girona have signed young center-back Alejandro Francés for around €4 million.

The Spanish defender impressed at the heart of Real Zaragoza’s back line in the Segunda División last season, looking solid on either side. He comfortably held his own defensively and was outstanding on the ball, showing midfielder-like control, supreme strength under pressure, eye-catching dribbling and a good amount of passing towards goal.

Our model believes the 21-year-old defender will not look out of place at all in La Liga, and he should get better yet. All things considered, this seems another brilliant piece of business on Girona’s part.

George Ilenikhena (Royal Antwerp to Monaco)

Monaco have signed teenage sensation George Ilenikhena for €17 million.

He enjoyed a breakout campaign with Royal Antwerp last season, scoring 14 goals across all competitions. He showed the movement, anticipation and killer instincts in the box that earned him a €6 million move to Belgium at just 16 years old after a handful of appearances for Amiens in Ligue 2. 

Of course, he has a lot of scope to develop in his overall link-up play and strength in duels, though much of that will come with age as well. Monaco have a great track record when it comes to signing and developing top-class young talents, so Ilenikhena will be one to watch in the upcoming seasons.

Youssef En-Nesyri (Sevilla to Fenerbahçe)

Fenerbahçe have signed Youssef En-Nesyri for a club record transfer fee said to be around €20 million.

The Moroccan international leaves Sevilla after a strong 16-goal La Liga season. Standing at 6′2″, En-Nesyri is tall enough as it is but also possesses an incredible leap to provide the definition of towering headers in the box. In fact, he attempted more shots with his head than both his feet combined in the league last season, though he can be a clinical finisher with his right foot too.

Naturally, En-Nesyri can also be used as a target striker, though his sub-par link-up play means he is best off as a pure box presence. Fenerbahçe already have a similar striker in their ranks in Edin Džeko, so their new signing will initially have to compete with him for a starting spot before eventually taking over as the first-choice from the 38-year-old if all goes to plan. For this season at least, both of them will be great options for José Mourinho’s side.

Thijs Dallinga (Toulouse to Bologna)

Having sold Joshua Zirkzee to Manchester United, Bologna have signed Thijs Dallinga for a third of the fee.

Considering that amount, this seems a smart move. The two Dutch strikers have somewhat similar profiles as they do not mind getting involved in the build-up play, although Zirkzee is significantly better on the ball as he offers much greater retention and better link-up passing. Dallinga, though, is a much more consistent box presence and therefore can produce more attacking output, as his returns of 26 goals in the last two Ligue 1 seasons for Toulouse and 32 goals in his only Eerste Divisie season attest.

Of course, Bologna have also lost their head coach as Thiago Motta has joined Juventus, so Vincenzo Italiano will be the new man in charge. Although the two are fairly similar stylistically, their preferred systems are a bit different. Italiano’s work at Fiorentina suggests he would prefer a striker of Dallinga’s profile, so this is a well-thought-out move from all angles.

Caleb Wiley (Atlanta United to Chelsea)

Chelsea have spent an eight-digit transfer fee to sign Caleb Wiley.

One of the standout young talents in Major League Soccer, Wiley broke into Atlanta United’s starting XI at the age of 17 and did not look back. He has developed well in the two full seasons of league action he has seen so far, although he still has a long way to go before he is up to the mark in the English Premier League.

At the moment, Wiley is nowhere near the level of a Chelsea starter both in terms of attacking output and defending quality, although he has shown some promising signs with his link-up passing and dribbling. The Blues seem to recognize that as he will reportedly be loaned to sister club Strasbourg, which seems a much better place for him to continue his development right now.

Amadou Onana (Everton to Aston Villa)

Aston Villa have signed Amadou Onana for almost €60 million.

That is quite a big fee (a club record, in fact) but this could well go down as a good deal for Villa considering Onana’s quality and potential. The 22-year-old midfielder impressed for Everton in the last two seasons, showing great well-roundedness through handy defensive efforts, some attacking output, a good degree of ball retention considering their style of play, great strength in aerial duels and decent passing, dribbling and shooting.

It is worth remembering that Onana did all of this for an Everton side that were competing close to the bottom of the table. With better teammates and a more cohesive in-possession system, the Belgian international should only look better at Villa Park.

Javi López (Alavés to Real Sociedad)

Real Sociedad have signed Javi López for €6.5 million.

The young full-back spent the last seven years at Alavés, rising through their youth ranks before eventually becoming a first-team regular. He made 30 appearances in 2022/23 as his side won promotion to La Liga, although most of them were off the bench. In the subsequent season, he made 25 starts in the top-flight.

The 22-year-old left back showed good attacking output in both campaigns, getting forward well with his dribbling down the wing and overlapping runs. His defending quality has been alright too, though he will likely need to improve his ball retention to do a good job in La Real’s system.

All things considered, our model picks out López as a young player to watch so it will be interesting to follow his development in Imanol Alguacil’s side.

Thomas Delaney (Sevilla to FC København)

Thomas Delaney has returned to his boyhood club FC København after the expiration of his contract with Sevilla.

He joined their youth academy at the age of six and spent 14 years rising up the ranks before moving to Werder Bremen in 2017. Just a year later, he was signed by Borussia Dortmund with whom he spent three and a half seasons. His next move to Sevilla did not go so well, ending with two loans – first at Hoffenheim and then to Anderlecht last season.

As far as our model is concerned, the 32-year-old midfielder’s work in Belgium last season suggests he should do very well in the Danish Superliga. He will be a great defensive asset for his side thanks to his strength in duels and could go on to pose significant attacking output if given the freedom.

Álvaro Morata (Atlético Madrid to Milan)

Fresh after captaining Spain to the EURO 2024 title, Álvaro Morata has joined Milan.

For just €13 million, this seems quite a good deal for the Rossoneri. The experienced striker has been at a good few of Europe’s top clubs in his career so far having represented Real Madrid, Juventus, Chelsea and Atlético Madrid in various stints. Although he is now the other side of 30 years old, he seems to be at or close to his peak as his return of 28 league goals in his last two seasons is a career-best. Even beyond his attacking output, he offers a lot more to his teams through his clever link-up play and tireless work-rate to support his fellow attackers.

As a result, our model believes he can do really well in Serie A as long as he maintains such a level of performance.

Martin Terrier (Rennes to Bayer Leverkusen)

Bayer Leverkusen have struck a €20 million deal with Rennes to sign Martin Terrier.

This is a pivotal move in the 27-year-old Frenchman’s career, which has been filled with promise but hampered by injury issues of late. The Lille academy graduate first impressed on loan at Strasbourg and was soon picked up Lyon, with whom he spent a couple of seasons before being signed by Rennes. He enjoyed his best-ever season with Les Rouges et Noirs in 2021/22, scoring as many as 21 league goals. He managed nine more in the subsequent campaign but suffered a nasty ACL injury mid-season that saw him miss the rest of it as well as the start of 2023/24. His game time had to be managed carefully after his return, so he did not quite look back to his best even though he did manage double digits in terms of Ligue 1 goal involvements.

As far as Terrier’s profile is concerned, he is a left-sided forward who likes to operate in the channel be it from a starting position on the left wing or as a striker. He handles the ball well as he links up with his teammates excellently and carries into space well, but his standout attribute is his clinical finishing with his right foot from all angles.

Leverkusen seems the perfect place for Terrier to be in every respect including competitive level, tactical setup and the fact that they have multiple forward options who can share the workload.

Leny Yoro (Lille to Manchester United)

Manchester United have spent big to sign Leny Yoro, paying an upfront transfer fee of €62 million with up to €8 million in add-ons.

The Red Devils are paying for his potential just as much as his current ability. He enjoyed a breakout season with Lille at the age of 17 in 2023/24, not looking out of place at the heart of their defense. Of course, he had some lapses but showed promising signs in his tackling and intercepting, using his long strides and pace to his advantage. Already well over 6', he is quite strong in the air too.

Yoro can certainly improve his defending quality, but he is a tad more developed on the ball already, showing excellent retention and promising signs in his short passing and forward carrying into space. If he develops consistent progressive passing too, he could easily become a world-class ball-playing defender quite quickly.

With just one full senior season under his belt, the French defender’s development ought to be carefully handled. He will face tougher tests in the Premier League so he should not be thrown too far in the deep end too soon, but could easily become one of the league’s very best defenders in a couple of years if things go well.

Sávio (Troyes to Manchester City)

Sávio has moved across City Football Group clubs to join Manchester City.

The Brazilian winger spent the 2023/24 season on loan at Girona, for whom he lit up La Liga with 9 goals and 10 assists. More than his output, though, his electric dribbling entertained fans the most as he averaged 3.14 successful take-ons per 90. His pace, ball control and quick footwork certainly helped in that respect, while he also retained the ball well and linked up with his teammates decently.

Sávio spent the vast majority of the season on the left and liked to hug the touchline, which is something Pep Guardiola generally asks his wingers to do. However, our model believes he will need to take his attacking output up another notch if he is to become a regular in Manchester. His extreme left-footedness and reluctance to use his right is one aspect to improve on, as is his defensive work rate. At just 20 years old, he certainly has time to work on those things and could potentially become one of the standout wingers in the English Premier League in a couple of seasons.

Andreas Hountondji (Caen to Burnley)

Burnley have signed young Beninese international Andreas Hountondji in a €4 million deal.

The 22-year-old forward enjoyed his first season as a regular starter on loan at Ligue 2 club Rodez and made the most of his opportunity to become the team’s top scorer with 14 league goals and four assists to boot. He spent most of his time in a front two, showing great movement into the box to shoot from quality positions as his xG tally even exceeded his return. His ball carrying was quite impressive as well as he averaged over 3 progressive carries per 90 and did well to bring his team forward in transition.

This seems a good move for all involved as Hountondji will make a step up to a promotion-challenging club in the Championship, Burnely add a promising youngster to their ranks and Caen get a handy fee for a player they could not give much first-team action to.

Glen Kamara (Leeds United to Rennes)

Rennes’ midfield makeover continues with the signing of Glen Kamara.

Our model expects him to do well in France as he has shown very good defending quality both in the English Championship and in the Scottish Premiership when he was with Rangers. The Finnish international’s supreme strength in ground duels certainly helps in that respect, while his secure link-up passing and great ball retention make him a handy player in the build-up.

Kamara does not offer a lot of ball progression, so he will need support in that respect from his fellow midfielders. As long as he has the right players around him, he should prove to be a solid signing.

Albert Grønbæk (Bodø/Glimt to Rennes)

Bodø/Glimt have sold Albert Grønbæk to Rennes for a club-record-smashing €15 million transfer fee.

Still, that should be money well spent for the French side as they are getting a top-class midfielder who has the quality to continue to star in Ligue 1 as far as our model is concerned. The Norwegian champions used him in a very advanced number eight role, in which he picked up great positions between the lines, used his excellent close control to receive passes on the half-turn and slalom past defenders before posing a significant threat in and around the box with his chance creation and finishing.

Rennes’ recent track record with advanced midfielders has been far from great (Enzo Le Fée and Fabian Rieder are two very recent examples) but they will have to do quite a bit wrong to suppress the Danish star’s talents. They do seem to be using this – their first summer window under Julien Stéphan – to good effect to overhaul their squad, so Grønbæk could well instantly become a key figure in the new-look Rennes.

Yukinari Sugawara (AZ to Southampton)

Yukinari Sugawara has left AZ for newly-promoted English Premier League side Southampton in a deal worth around €7 million.

The Saints are getting an exciting attacking full-back who gets the ball forward quite well with his passing, loves to burst forward on the overlap and produces significant attacking output with great crossing from open play and dead balls. He has developed great consistency in this respect in his four-year stint in the Eredivisie, however, our model is concerned about the defensive side of his game.

For one, Sugawara is not strong in defensive duels at all as he is easily beaten both in the ground and in the air. His tackling is not great, he does not make too many interceptions and he does not defend his own box too well, so his defending quality could be a concern in the Premier League.

At 24 years old, Sugawara could still develop a bit but he is unlikely to become a great defender in the Premier League too quickly. He certainly poses enough of an attacking threat to be a useful player in the right role, but Southampton will have to do a good job of masking his weaknesses.

Joshua Zirkzee (Bologna to Manchester United)

Manchester United have made their first signing of the summer after striking a deal with Bologna worth €42.5 million for Joshua Zirkzee.

The Dutch striker joins the Red Devils on the back of a successful season with Bologna in which he scored 11 goals and set up 4 others as the club qualified for the UEFA Champions League via the league. He served as a central attacking hub in Thiago Motta’s eye-catching system, dropping off to receive the ball, turning and playing forward to feed his fellow attackers. Naturally, he showed excellent link-up passing in this role, but our model is not convinced he produced enough attacking output to be Manchester United’s lead attacker.

As impressive as his performances were, Zirkzee averaged just under one goal involvement in two games in both of his Serie A seasons. In order to use him as a striker, his team must support him with great goal-scoring wingers, but Manchester United do not seem to have those at the moment. He could yet do a better job as a second striker, but fitting both him and Bruno Fernandes in the same side would then become a different challenge for Erik ten Hag.

At 23 years old, Zirkzee has a long career ahead of him and a lot of time to mold his game. Only time can tell whether he will be a successful signing for Manchester United, but at the moment, it seems both the club and player could have gone for better options.

Alessandro Buongiorno (Torino to Napoli)

Napoli’s biggest signing of the summer so far is Alessandro Buongiorno, for whom they have spent a transfer fee of €35 million.

The 25-year-old defender enjoyed a fantastic 2023/24 season with Torino as he stood out at the heart of their back five, averaging almost 5 tackles and interceptions per 90 as well as 4.5 clearances. Quite clearly, he got through a lot of defensive work and was quite good at it too.

Buongirono’s on-ball numbers from last season do not look great, especially for a side like Napoli who will want to keep more of the ball under Antonio Conte. Upon closer inspection, though, it becomes clear that this was a consequence of the role and tactical instructions he was given rather than a perfectly accurate representation of his abilities. Going back just one more season, we see that the Italian defender’s ball retention and passing looked significantly better when he moved out to the wide center-back role.

All things considered, this seems a good move for all involved. Conte is likely to use a back three system at Napoli, so Buongiorno should find the transition simple enough and be able to establish himself as a key player in their back line.

Max Dean (MK Dons to Gent)

Gent have signed young Max Dean from League Two side MK Dons.

This could prove to be a masterstroke of a move as Dean out up some impressive numbers in his first full senior campaign last term, scoring 15 goals and registering five assists in the league. Besides his attacking output, he showed himself to be handy with the ball as he linked up with his teammates well and posed a decent dribbling threat. All things considered, our model thinks he could immediately impress in the Belgian Pro League.

The Leeds United academy graduate’s transfer fee is said to be over €1 million, so it is a very good sum for MK Dons and yet could prove cheap for Gent in the long run.

Renato Veiga (FC Basel to Chelsea)

Chelsea have signed Renato Veiga for €14 million – over 4.5 times more than what Transfermarkt suggest his current market value is!

For that amount, this does seem a pretty risky transfer. Veiga has only played one full season of senior football in his career so far, which was with FC Basel last season. His game time was spread around a fair few positions across midfield and defense, which is a testament to his versatility but also makes it harder to assess his level.

If Enzo Maresca copy-pastes the system he used at Leicester City, Veiga will likely be a good fit for the inverted full-back role. His progressive passing, dribbling and ball retention should be decent enough, but opposing wingers will be sure to test him defensively to see how well he holds up one-on-one.

Jan-Niklas Beste (Heidenheim to Benfica)

Heidemheim have lost another key player as Jan-Niklas Beste has been signed by Benfica, with Tim Kleindienst already having left for Borussia Mönchengladbach. The transfer fee of €8 million makes him the most expensive sale in the club’s history, but the Portuguese giants should still feel that they have gotten a steal as Transfermarkt rates his value at nearly twice that amount.

Our model expects him to have a great time in the Primeira Liga on the basis of his debut Bundesliga season in 2023/24, in which he registered a club-high 19 goal involvements to lead Heidenheim to their first-ever European qualification. Prior to that, he scored 12 goals and provided as many assists to lead his side to promotion from the 2. Bundesliga.

Obviously, Beste’s attacking output numbers have been very high (thanks in no smal part to his brilliant set-piece deliveries), but he has managed to put them up while maintaining a good degree of ball retention and offering lots of passing towards goal. Given his profile as someone who likes to run up and down the flank quite close to the touchline, he could well be a better fit for Benfica’s left back role rather than the left forward position.

Khéphren Thuram (Nice to Juventus)

Khéphren Thuram has joined Juventus in a deal worth around €20 million which they should be quite pleased with.

The French midfielder has spent the last five years with Les Aiglons, developing quite well as a build-up orchestrator. He is now incredibly press-resistant with great strength in ground duels and awareness of his surroundings, which also enables him to turn and complete line-breaking forward carries. At the same time, he does not take too many undue risks and retains the ball to a decent extent, playing secure short passes to nearby teammates.

Thuram is quite positionally disciplined as well, making him a key component of his side’s rest defense. He does not jump into too many challenges so his defending quantity is low, but his quality should comfortably be good enough to succeed in Serie A. He did also break into the final third a fair bit in a slightly more advanced role in recent years, although his decision-making there left a bit to be desired.

João Palhinha (Fulham to Bayern Munich)

After about a year of chasing the deal, Bayern Munich have finally signed João Palhinha.

Looking at the Portuguese midfielder’s recent track record through our model, Bayern’s desperation to get him quickly becomes understandable. Palhinha is an exceptional ball-winner who offers fantastic defensive solidity at the base of midfield, freeing up those around him to freely get forward and attack.

The former Sporting midfielder’s ability to disrupt opposition moves is outstanding. He was by far the best tackler in the Premier League last season, attempting over 150 at an average of just over 5 per 90 and winning more than 100 of them. For context, the player with the second-most successful tackles only had 62.

Palhinha is not the best on the ball, although he can pose some attacking threat from set-pieces thanks to his aerial strength. Either way, his defensive qualities more than offset his low contribution in possession, so this should prove to be a great signing for a Bayern Munich side that did struggle with conceding counterattacks last season.

Ben Old (Wellington Phoenix to Saint-Étienne)

Ben Old has sealed a historic move to newly-promoted Ligue 1 side Saint-Étienne, becoming the first New Zealander to join Les Verts and just the second to move to a top-flight French club.

The young Kiwi midfielder enjoyed an excellent 2023/24 season in an impressive Wellington Phoenix side, for whom he mostly played in the left-sided attacking role in a box midfield regardless of whether he was named as a central midfielder or left winger on paper. His standout attributes included his close control and ability to retain the ball under pressure while dribbling forward as well as intelligent movement in and around the box that got him 5 goals and 4 assists.

Our model thinks that the level of performance the 22-year-old midfield showed in the A-League last season should translate decently to France, so he should not look out of place in the big league. For a reported transfer fee of around €600,000, then, this seems a great move for all involved.

Mohamed Amoura (Union Saint-Gilloise to Wolfsburg)

Royale Union Saint-Gilloise have once again lost their star striker in the summer transfer window. This time, Mohamed Amoura has moved to Wolfsburg initially on a loan deal with a €3 million fee, with the German side having an option to buy for a further €14 million.

Union only signed him last summer from Lugano in a deal worth €4 million, so they are set to make a significant profit. The Algerian forward absolutely hit the ground running in Belgium, thriving in a free striker role and registering 19 goal involvements in the league alone.

Amoura played a key role in helping Union implement their transitional style of play, as he often dropped off the front line or pulled wide into the left channel to carry the ball forward at pace or pull out an opposition defender and find a teammate in space. He also made sure of arriving at the right place at the right time thereafter, scoring as many as 16 goals from inside the box.

Although some teams such as Stuttgart and Bayer Leverkusen have reaped rewards by adopting a more patient approach, the German Bundesliga remains the most transition-heavy of the big five European leagues. So, Amoura should continue to thrive in Germany.

Michael Olise (Crystal Palace to Bayern Munich)

Michael Olise has joined Bayern Munich in a deal worth around €60 million.

He was plagued by a couple of injury issues in 2023/24, but he was simply sensational when on the pitch. Starting on the right wing, he shows excellent ball control and electric dribbling at high speed to get at defenders, using both feet to go either way. Of course, he prefers to cut inside onto his favored left foot and packs a powerful and precise shot, but he can also stick in a threatening cross or play a creative pass to produce attacking output in all sorts of manners. His intelligent and calm decision-making certainly helps in that respect too.

Our model reckons that the level Olise showed at Crystal Palace over the last three seasons would make him a standout star in the German Bundesliga, so he absolutely deserves this move to the league’s record champions.

Olise clearly has the quality to become an instant starter even among Bayern’s star-studded attacking options, and at just 22 years old, he could get even better yet!

Thiago Almada (Atlanta United to Botafogo)

Thiago Almada has completed an MLS-record move away from Atlanta United.

He will first be going to Botafogo, although he has reportedly been promised a move to fellow Eagle Football Holdings-owned club Olympique Lyonnais in the next transfer window. Our model believes he could already star in Ligue 1, so that should be the right move for him.

The Argentine midfielder thrived in a free number 10 role for Atlanta United, showing his excellent positional understanding, wonderful forward and creative passing, and skillful dribbling to wriggle out of tight spaces. Thanks to those qualities, he registered an MLS-high 16 assists last year.

He could well be given a similar role at Botafogo as they seek to right the wrongs of their disastrous title challenge from last season, but it should be interesting to see how he operates if/when he moves to Lyon.

Mats Wieffer (Feyenoord to Brighton & Hove Albion)

Mats Wieffer is moving to Brighton.

He was one of our picks in our Standout Stars: Eredivisie feature after another fantastic season with Feyenoord. He joined the club from Excelsior for just €575,000 in 2022, so they will now be making a massive profit as the reported transfer fee Brighton are paying is €30 million.

That should be money well-spent from the Seagulls’ point of view as well, as Wieffer seems the perfect defensive midfielder for their style of play. He covers a great deal of ground defensively and can do it all between tackling, intercepting and contesting aerial duels, using his physicality well and showing great reading of the game. The young Dutchman is quite tidy on the ball too, comfortably linking up with his teammates to support the build-up.

He does have room to improve as far as his ground duelling, ball retention and progression are concerned, although the latter two are also heavily influenced by team style. Either way, our model believes he should not look out of place in the Premier League at all, so this should prove to be another successful signing for Brighton & Hove Albion.

Zeno Debast (Anderlecht to Sporting CP)

Sporting have signed talented Belgian center-back Zeno Debast for a reported transfer fee of €15.5 million.

The youngster has spent his entire senior career so far at Anderlecht, having come through their renowned youth academy. He was as a mainstay in their back line in the last two seasons, starting over 60 league matches between them. In that time, Debast has made it clear to everyone that he has all the qualities needed to become a top-class center-back.

The Belgian international can already be called an excellent ball-player as he offers great retention, carries and dribbles forward very well without being fazed by pressure and is a good progressive passer too. The defensive side of things is where he could do with a bit of improvement as far as our model is concerned, although he will have good protection in Sporting’s back-three system.

If all goes well, Debast could be another name in the list of center-backs that Sporting develop and sell for a big profit which could well include Gonçalo Inácio and/or Ousmane Diomande by the end of this window.

Iliman Ndiaye (Marseille to Everton)

Iliman Ndiaye is moving to Everton for a transfer fee of €18 million – just €1 million more than what Marseille paid to sign him from Sheffield United last summer.

The Senegalese forward unsurprisingly did not have the best of seasons with just four goals and three assists in what was a very tumultuous campaign for the French giants as his game time was spread across all the positions in a front four. He is best off in a central role playing off a line-leading striker, as he demonstrated with Sheffield United in the Championship a couple of years ago.

He notched up as many as 25 goal involvements in his last Championship season, showcasing excellent dribbling through central areas and linking up with his fellow attackers very well to get into dangerous positions. If he can even come close to that level at Goodison Park, our model expects him to go pretty well in the Premier League.

Archie Gray (Leeds United to Tottenham Hotspur)

Tottenham Hotspur have signed Archie Gray from Leeds United, beating a host of Premier League clubs in a transfer battle.

The young Englishman enjoyed a breakout season in the Championship last term, predominantly playing as a right back although he also got a decent amount of game time in defensive midfield. In both roles, he showed excellent defending quality at an incredibly low volume as well as decent ball retention, though his attacking output was quite low. His short passing was good and he showed promising signs with his dribbling, but he could offer more progression. 

Of course, at just 18 years old, Gray has a lot of time to develop and improve on the aforementioned aspects. He undoubtedly is an incredibly promising prospect, and crucially, his unique profile is perfectly suited to Ange Postecoglu’s system at Tottenham Hotspur which includes ultra-narrow full-back roles.

Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall (Leicester City to Chelsea)

One of Chelsea’s first moves of the summer was to sign Leicester City head coach Enzo Maresca, and they have followed that up by bringing in a key midfielder from his side in Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall for a transfer fee of €35 million.

The 25-year-old midfielder took his game to another level as a more advanced number eight under Maresca last term. His ball retention, defending quality and quantity remained pretty good, but his attacking output jumped up big time as he consistently popped up in dangerous areas in and around the box and showed good composure to return with 12 goals and 14 assists.

If Maresca uses the same system at Chelsea, Dewsbury-Hall will have a tailor-made role in the squad. If not, he should still be able to offer excellent progressive carrying from deep if asked or operate between the lines and use his close control and strength in ground duels to retain the ball in tight areas high up the pitch. All in all, he should be a very good signing for the Blues.

Douglas Luiz (Aston Villa to Juventus) & Samuel Iling-Junior and Enzo Barrenechea (Juventus to Aston Villa)

Aston Villa and Juventus have conducted a swap deal that sees Douglas Luiz leave for Italy with Samuel Iling-Junior, Enzo Barrenechea and about €25 million going the other way.

This is quite a complicated deal to assess, not least because it also involves an element of balancing the books to comply with financial regulations. Still, we can try to look at all three players individually:

Juventus are undoubtedly getting the most proven player in this deal, as our model expects Douglas Luiz to star in Serie A after his consistently impressive performances in the Premier League. He is quite a well-rounded midfielder who is defensively solid, helps his team build up with great retention and good progression and can go on to support the attack.

Going the other way is his positional peer Enzo Barrenechea, who spent the last season on loan at Frosinone. He put in a great deal of defensive work and showed decent on-ball qualities, but lacked the retention or attacking output of the Brazilian midfielder. He could already be a passable Premier League player, but that would not be enough to replace Douglas Luiz.

Samuel Iling-Junior certainly is the more exciting prospect as he possesses a real dribbling spark and can link up with his teammates well enough to get down the wing. At 20 years old, he certainly has the potential to develop into an impressive Premier League player, but his adaptation to Aston Villa’s system in the short term will be interesting to follow as he will have to play a more advanced position.

On the whole, Juventus should be happier with this deal right now at least as they are getting a quality midfielder for a fee that is well under half his true transfer value, which easily makes the departures of two prospects palatable.

Ismaël Koné (Watford to Marseille)

Ismaël Koné is moving to Marseille.

The Canadian midfielder joined Watford a year and a half ago from Montréal. He has developed very well in the Championship, so much so that our model believes he will not look out of place in Ligue 1 at all.

Koné has become quite a well-rounded central midfielder with strengths on and off the ball. He uses his physicality quite well to resist pressure on the ball and make strong tackles to win it back. The Canadian international’s ball control with either foot is very good too, meaning he can dribble out of tight spaces and link up with his teammates well. Given freedom, progressive carrying is his standout attribute.

For a reported transfer fee of around €17 million, this seems a good move for all involved. Koné gets to take the next big step in his career, Watford flip a good profit on his transfer fees and Marseille, of course, get a very good player.

Ian Maatsen (Chelsea to Aston Villa)

Aston Villa’s first big summer signing is Ian Maatsen.

Based on his time in the German Bundesliga on loan at Borussia Dortmund and English Championship on loan at Burnley, our model thinks he can do a decent job in the Premier League. The Dutch defender enjoyed fairly attack-minded roles for both clubs, showing his excellent link-up passing and off-ball forward runs to get down the wing as well as fast dribbling. He proved solid enough defensively too, but his attacking output is something Unai Emery and his coaching staff may want to work on.

While there has been some questionable business going on in the Premier League of late, this seems a sensible enough move as Maatsen’s profile should be a good fit for the overlapping left back role in Emery’s system. However, the transfer fee of €44.5 million that Villa are paying even though the 22-year-old Dutchman only has a year left on his Chelsea contract is at least slightly inflated.

Abel Ruiz (Braga to Girona)

Spanish forward Abel Ruiz is joining Girona in a deal worth around €9 million.

A graduate of Barcelona’s esteemed La Masia academy, he failed to break into their first team and decided to move away to get his breakthrough in senior football. Braga signed him on a five-year contract in 2020 after paying a transfer fee of €8 million.

Ruiz has regularly featured for them in each of the last four seasons and developed decently, but our model is still unconvinced about whether he has reached La Liga quality. He has never hit double digits in terms of league goals and only managed eight goal involvements last term after a personal best of 14 in 2022/23.

Naturally, then, his attacking output is the chief cause of concern. He does use his body to hold the ball up well, link up with his teammates decently and move into the box cleverly, but his shooting has been below average on the whole. He is quite well-rounded on the whole, though, so if he can improve that one critical aspect of his game, he could easily do well in La Liga.

Paulinho (Sporting CP to Toluca)

Toluca have broken their transfer record to sign Paulinho for €7.75 million.

Our model thinks that is money well spent as it expects the 31-year-old forward to cause all sorts of problems to Liga MX defenders. He scored 50 goals in his last three seasons for Sporting, including 15 in the Primeira Liga winning campaign in 2023/24.

The Portuguese forward can start as a striker or off the left. He is a threatening presence up front either way, using his body well in duels and linking up brilliantly with his teammates to both create chances for others and get into dangerous shooting positions himself.

With Paulinho joining a squad that already has Alexis Vega and Maximiliano Araújo, Toluca are forming a formidable front line for 2024/25.

Cihan Çanak (Standard Liège to Trabzonspor)

Turkish teenage talent Cihan Çanak has joined Trabzonspor.

Born and raised in Liège, he joined Standard’s youth academy at the age of six and has spent his entire career so far with the club. He made his senior debut in late 2021 at just 16 years old and went on to regularly feature off the bench for the first team in the two subsequent seasons.

Çanak has shown great versatility in being able to play on either wing or as a number 10, which was his favored position in his youth career. Regardless of where he starts, his dribbling threat shines through as his ball control and direction changes at high speed are a sight to behold. His chance creation is pretty good too but he could improve his shooting and strength in duels.

At just 19 years old, Çanak still is a young talent with quite a bit of time before he hits his peak. Our model believes he should already look good in the Süper Lig, so he could well be moving to a top-five league in a few years’ time.

Fabian Rieder (Rennes to Stuttgart on loan)

Fabian Rieder has joined Stuttgart on a season-long loan.

The Swiss midfielder left domestic champions Young Boys for Rennes last summer in a move that looked a tad questionable at the time given the abundance of midfielders already present in the French side’s squad. Indeed, that proved to be a problem for Rieder as he only started two Ligue 1 games over the course of the season.

Prior to that, though, he had emerged as an exciting young creative midfielder in the Swiss Super League. Young Boys gave him a free role in which he would often drop back to help progress the ball with his excellent forward passing, though he also showed great positional understanding and close control between the lines. His vision and execution of final balls with either foot was also impressive, although our model believes he could be more consistent with his attacking output as a number 10.

The Swiss international is also very good out of possession with his pressing and anticipation, so he should be a good addition to an already-exciting Stuttgart side. All being well, he could become a permanent member of their squad as they reportedly have an option to buy for €15 million.

Seiya Maikuma (Cerezo Osaka to AZ)

AZ have signed another Japanese right back in Seiya Maikuma.

The 26-year-old defender has been a regular starter for Cerezo Osaka for the last year and a half, earning a national team debut and eventually a starting spot in the most recent Asian Cup (by displacing Yukinari Sugawara) with his impressive performances. Our model expects them to translate really well to the Eredivisie, particularly on the defensive side of things.

Besides being tough to get past, Maikuma is quite handy on the ball. Although he might not get too many assists as he does not overlap much, he progresses the ball well through carrying and passing and can invert into midfield if asked.

Amine El Ouazzani (Guingamp to Braga)

Braga have spent €3.5 million to sign Moroccan youth international Amine El Ouazzani.

He has risen up the ranks of the French pyramid and spent the last two seasons in Ligue 2 with Guingamp, returning with 25 goal involvements across them. He established himself as a regular starter last term, playing over 3,000 minutes altogether for the side that finished 9th.

Our model believes he did better as a second striker in Guingamp’s 4-4-2/4-2-3-1 formations, producing greater attacking output through more dangerous movement into the box and shots. The 22-year-old forward also linked up with his teammates and retained the ball to a decent degree besides doing his defensive duties.

Braga’s attack could be undergoing a bit of an overhaul this summer as Álvaro Djaló has already left for Athletic Club and Simon Banza is being linked with a move away, so it should be interesting to see how they use El Ouazzani next season.

Ayrton Costa (Independiente to Royal Antwerp)

2022/23 Belgian Pro League champions Royal Antwerp have paid their first transfer fee of the window to sign Ayrton Costa.

They did need a left-back following the departure of Sam Vines to the Colorado Rapids in the winter window and Owen Wijndal’s imminent return to Ajax at the end of his loan spell. Costa fits the bill as a very good defender first and foremost with great quality and quantity of his work, though his strength in ground duels could improve. He can be handy in possession too as he passes forward well but does not notch up too many goal involvements.

For a fee of about €2.3 million, this should be a good move for Antwerp as long as they craft the right sort of reserved full-back role for Costa to operate in.

Luan (Palmeiras to Toluca)

Toluca have signed Luan from Brazilian giants Palmeiras.

The 31-year-old center-back is capable of playing both in a back-four and back-three. He prefers to start on the right where he is more comfortable on the ball by virtue of being right-footed, though he can do a handy job elsewhere too. His strength in the air certainly helps, and he can progress the ball to a decent extent either through passing or carrying.

The reported transfer fee of €3.3 million is almost twice Luan’s Transfermarkt value, but he could still prove a good signing by adding experience and more solidity to Toluca’s defense.

Lasso Coulibaly (FC Nordsjælland to Auxerre)

Lasso Coulibaly has joined newly-promoted Ligue 1 side Auxerre.

The 21-year-old Ghanaian winger enjoyed a successful 2023/24 season on loan with Randers, who reportedly were planning to trigger their an option to buy. However, their plans were scuppered after Auxerre entered the picture, as they paid Nordsjælland a transfer fee just under €1.5 million to sign the Right to Dream academy graduate.

Coulibaly was flagged by our model as a young player to watch after his breakout season, in which he showed great defensive work rate and potential as a dribbly winger. He did not give away the ball cheaply and was strong in duels. His return of 4 goals and as many assists was decent, but he will need to improve his end product a bit more to succeed in the French top-flight.

Andri Guðjohnsen (Norrköping to Lyngby)

Andri Guðjohnsen has sealed a permanent move to Lyngby.

He is currently on loan in Denmark, making the most of his first season with regular senior game time. The Real Madrid academy graduate has hit double digits in terms of goals scored already, playing a critical role as his team’s top scorer in their relegation battle.

In the process of putting up such excellent attacking output, the Icelandic international has shown himself to be a menacing box presence with strength in aerial duels and a serious shooting threat. At the same time, he is also able to offer good ball retention up top.

It is easy to see why Lyngby were so keen to keep him on a more permanent basis, and other clubs will be keenly following his progress too. The Guðjohnsen family’s footballing dynasty – which started with Andri’s grandfather Arnór and includes his father Eiður – does not seem to be ending anytime soon.

Jean-Pierre Nsamé (Como to Legia Warszawa on loan)

Polish giants Legia Warszawa have signed Jean-Pierre Nsamé on loan from newly-promoted Serie A side Como.

The Cameroonian international has consistently shown the quality and level of attacking output in Switzerland and Italy over the last few seasons for our model to be convinced that he will go quite well in the Ekstraklasa. He is quite strong in duels and a very clinical shooter when he gets a look at the goal.

None of Legia’s players broke into double digits in terms of league goals in 2023/24 as they finished a slightly disappointing third, so they will hope to see Nsamé help them improve in both respects.

Costinha (Rio Ave to Olympiacos)

Olympiacos have signed young right back Costinha.

The 24-year-old Portuguese defender developed at the prestigious youth academies of Porto and Braga before ultimately joining Rio Ave, who eventually gave him his break at the senior level. He has been a regular starter for Luís Freire’s side over the last couple of seasons, notching up over 5,000 league minutes between them.

Costinha has operated as a hard-working wing-back in the Primeira Liga, contesting lots of duels, showing good ball-winning qualities and progressing the ball to a decent degree with his passing. All things considered, our model expects him to do a solid job in Greece.

A player like Costinha will help inject intensity and work-rate into the Olympiacos side, freeing up the flank for a more flair-based right winger to go forward and deal damage by way of attack.

Ardon Jashari (Luzern to Club Brugge)

Ardon Jashari has sealed a deal to join Club Brugge in the summer.

The 21-year-old midfielder has spent the last decade in Luzern coming through the club’s youth academy before stepping up to the second team in 2019 and regularly featuring for the first team from 2021/22 onwards. He looked set to leave last summer too, but the club did not deem any offer to be good enough to let him go.

This time, Club Brugge will pay a reported transfer fee of over €5 million for his services. Our model believes this is a very smart move, as Jashari has shown enough quality as a ball-playing defensive midfielder to suggest that he will shine in Belgium.

The Swiss international’s best attributes include his excellent dribbling and shooting, while he can also offer very good passing towards goal. Club Brugge seem to need exactly this sort of defensive midfielder, so this transfer should go well for all involved parties.

Jefté (Fluminense to Rangers)

Rangers have signed young Brazilian left-back Jefté.

The Fluminense youth academy graduate does not have a senior appearance to his name for the Brazilian giants but did impress on loan at APOEL Nicosia in Cyprus, standing out with his ball retention, defensive quality and dribbling. His link-up passing, shooting and attacking output were not half-bad either.

With Borna Barišić leaving this summer, Rangers do need another left-back in their squad next season. Our model believes that the level of performance Jefté showed in Cyprus will translate to the Scottish Premiership well as long he maintains it, of course.

Rodrigo Gomes (Braga to Wolverhampton Wanderers)

Wolverhampton Wanderers’ Portuguese influx looks set to continue this summer as their first signing of the window is Rodrigo Gomes from Braga.

The 20-year-old wide player enjoyed a great season on loan at Estoril, predominantly playing as a right wing-back due to his right-footedness but also showing himself to be capable of doing a job on the left. From both positions, he produced excellent attacking output using his acceleration and pace for dangerous dribbling and intelligent forward movement before going on to pose a crossing and shooting threat. He also worked very hard defensively, which is something Gary O’Neil will surely appreciate.

The Portuguese youth international has room to improve in terms of his defensive quality and especially ball retention, but our model believes he could already do well in the English Premier League if he maintains the level he showed last season. If that does prove to be the case, the €15 million Wolves have spent on his transfer fee will be more than justified.

Chadi Riad (Real Betis to Crystal Palace)

Crystal Palace’s first signing for Oliver Glasner is Chadi Riad.

The Moroccan center-back enjoyed a breakout season with Real Betis in 2023/24, establishing himself as a mainstay on the left of their defense. He operated as an incredibly passive defender but was supremely solid when forced into action. On the ball, he helped build out well with good passing and retention.

At just 20 years old, Riad has a long career ahead of him and lots of potential to develop yet. Our model believes he could be close to Premier League quality already, so he seems a good signing for a transfer fee of about €15 million.

Georgios Giakoumakis (Atlanta United to Cruz Azul)

Defeated Liga MX finalists Cruz Azul have strengthened their attack with the signing of Georgios Giakoumakis for just under €10 million.

The Greek striker came very close to 20 goals in his debut season for Atlanta United in 2023. He has not been able to entirely carry that form into this season due to a couple of small injury issues, but based on his previous work and time at Celtic, our model believes he has the potential to shine in the Mexican top-flight.

Besides his excellent ball-striking and shooting prowess, Giakoumakis showed very good defensive work rate in Atlanta, so that will surely be appreciated by the side that had one of the best defensive records in the 2023/24 Liga MX Clausura. All things considered, this move seems a good fit for both the player and club.

Álvaro Djaló (Braga to Athletic Club)

Athletic Club have sealed a deal that will see Álvaro Djaló join them in the summer.

The 24-year-old Spaniard is currently enjoying a breakout season with Braga, for whom he has registered nine league goal involvements so far. Deployed as a CAM/SS predominantly, he has produced great attacking output largely thanks to his receiving in the box and shooting qualities.

Our model believes that the level he is showing in the Primeira Liga right now will translate quite well to La Liga, so this seems a great piece of scouting on Athletic Club’s part.

Emanuel Reynoso (Minnesota United to Tijuana)

Emanuel Reynoso has left Minnesota United after four outstanding seasons on the pitch.

His excellent performances as a number 10 place him firmly in contention for being the best player to represent the Loons to date. The Argentine attacking midfielder’s exceptional technical abilities and genius vision enabled him to offer top-class progressive passing, dangerous dribbling and chance creation to his side.

He has faced various off-pitch troubles throughout his career so far, though, so he has been suspended from Minnesota United’s squad on multiple occasions in the past. Tijuana will hope to avoid such situations because our model expects him to tear up Liga MX if he can maintain the level he showed in MLS.

Ladislav Krejčí (Sparta Prague to Girona)

Girona’s first summer signing ahead of their UEFA Champions League debut is Ladislav Krejčí.

The Czech international captained Sparta Prague to their first league title in nine years and followed it up with a domestic double in 2023/24. In both seasons, he played a key role as the left center-back in their back three, though he previously also showed himself to be capable of doing a job as a defensive midfielder.

Regardless of his position, Krejčí has been a solid defender with a good balance of quality and quantity of his work, having also shown great attacking output thanks to his aerial prowess and set-piece threat. He is comfortable playing around with the ball at his feet and has the potential to be a very good ball progressor through carrying too.

All things considered, our model believes the Czech international should look pretty good in La Liga as long as he adjusts to his new surroundings without too many hiccups. How he adapts to a back-four system – whether as a left center-back or auxiliary left back – will be interesting to see.

Ezequiel Ponce (AEK Athens to Houston Dynamo)

The Houston Dynamo have struck a club-record deal to sign Ezequiel Ponce.

The Argentine forward will join the club for a transfer fee of around €7.5 million – nearly twice as much as their previous record. Based on his last season in Greece, that is money well spent as he has the potential to tear up Major League Soccer defenses.

Ponce scored 14 non-penalty goals in the Super League in 2023/24 with a very high xG/shot average of 0.19, showcasing his brilliant movement in the danger area and shooting threat. He is also quite strong in the air both in open play and from set-pieces, so he should be able to add another dimension to the Dynamo’s attacking threat in this way.

Osman Bukari (Crvena zvezda to Austin FC)

Austin FC’s newest Designated Player is Osman Bukari.

The Ghanaian international leaves Serbian giants Crvena zvezda after firing them to back-to-back domestic trebles, contributing with 40 goal involvements in all competitions across two seasons. The 25-year-old forward delivered the goods both from his favored positions on the right wing and as a number 10 in a 4-2-3-1, maintaining great attacking output.

Our model expects him to star in Major League Soccer regardless of the position he is deployed in. His excellent movement in the final third, link-up passing, speedy dribbling and end product are sure to cause many problems for defenses around the USA and Canada.

Leandro Barreiro (Mainz to Benfica)

All-action midfielder Leandro Barreiro is set to leave Mainz for Benfica.

The Luxembourg international left his hometown Erpeldange to join the 05ers’ youth academy in 2016 when he was 16 years old. After eight years at the club, of which the last five and a half have been spent with the first team, he has decided to move on when his contract expires this summer.

As a result, Benfica are set to be the big winners in this deal as they will sign a player valued at €14 million by Transfermarkt for nothing by way of a transfer fee. Our model expects Barreiro to shine in the Portuguese Primeira Liga based on his consistently strong track record in the Bundesliga as a real box-to-box midfielder.

Benfica will expect to lose a midfielder from their current squad this summer as young João Neves is being linked to some of the world’s biggest clubs on the back of an excellent season. His release clause is a nine-digit figure, so Barreiro’s free transfer means they have already secured a replacement while keeping a big sum in their wallet to spend on other areas of the squad.

Thiago Silva (Chelsea to Fluminense)

Thiago Silva has sealed a deal to join Fluminense when his contract at Chelsea expires at the end of the season.

The veteran Brazilian defender joined their youth set-up in 1998 before leaving in 2000 and would go on to play for the senior team between 2006 and 2009, meaning he is set to return for his third stint on the books of his boyhood club. He is quite a different player now, having established himself as one of the world’s best center-backs in the 2010s.

Of course, as he approaches 40 years of age, he will no longer be the player he once was. In his last couple of seasons at Chelsea, he has continued to show exceptional ball retention and success in duels, but his defensive quality and especially quantity have dropped off significantly – to the point where our model believes they could be exposed in Brazil.

Having signed him on a two-year contract, Flu will hope to get the best of his ball-playing abilities in Fernande Diniz’s eye-catching possession-based style, which will hopefully not require him to do too much defensive work as well.

Tosin Adarabioyo (Fulham to Chelsea)

Chelsea’s first summer signing is center-back Tosin Adarabioyo.

The Manchester City academy graduate left the club in 2020 and has spent the last four years at Fulham, where he has established himself as a regular starter in their back line. His performances have also improved, particularly by way of defending quality in the last season. Besides that, he has consistently shown himself to be an excellent progressive carrier.

Tosin left a bit to be desired in terms of his defensive contributions in his first few seasons, but his work last term was comfortably good enough for the Premier League. As a free agent, then, he should be a pretty good signing for Chelsea as long as he continues to perform at such a level.

Olivier Giroud (Milan to Los Angeles FC)

Olivier Giroud will complete his move to Los Angeles when MLS’ secondary transfer window opens in July.

The veteran French striker has spent the last three seasons with Milan after almost a decade in the Premier League for Arsenal and later Chelsea. Throughout this long period of time, he has maintained a very high level of attacking output. Thanks to that, as well as his exceptional strength in aerial duels, link-up passing and movement into the box, our model believes he will cause major problems to MLS defenses even at the age of 37.

LAFC have been in need of a real goal-scoring striker following the departure of Carlos Vela in the winter, so this seems a great signing for them. Although he will likely not be around for too long, Giroud can still establish himself as one of the best active forwards in Major League Soccer while he is there.

Aleix García (Girona to Bayer Leverkusen)

Bayer Leverkusen seem prepared to build on their invincible domestic double with a strong transfer window, starting with the signing of Aleix García.

The Spaniard enjoyed an outstanding season with Girona after being converted to a deep-lying playmaker for good. He looked fantastic whenever he got on the ball, offering superb retention while also managing to progress it to a great degree through passing and carrying. The 26-year-old midfielder capped it all off with some consistent attacking output and also worked hard to support his side defensively.

As everyone should expect, our model believes he will go very well in the German Bundesliga. For a reported transfer fee of €18 million plus €2 million in add-ons, this is a fantastic deal for Bayer Leverkusen.

Mehdi Taremi (Porto to Inter)

Mehdi Taremi is set to join Inter this summer on a free transfer after his contract at Porto expires.

This looks set to be another great piece of business from the current Italian champions, who also signed striker Marcus Thuram on a free last summer. Taremi should offer a third option in the front two positions besides the Frenchman and Lautaro Martínez as he has consistently shown Serie A-level quality over the last few seasons.

The Iranian international has maintained a good level of attacking output while showing all the necessary qualities of a well-rounded striker including link-up passing and ball retention. Based on his experience at Porto, he should fit like a glove into Simone Inzaghi’s two-striker system at Inter.

Kylian Mbappé (Paris Saint-Germain to Real Madrid)

Kylian Mbappé has finally made the long-awaited move to Real Madrid.

Unsurprisingly, our model expects him to go very well in La Liga. Benchmarked to the Spanish top flight, his performances over the last few seasons have consistently been excellent. Of course, the Frenchman’s main contribution comes through his attacking output.

He will likely be used as a striker (nominally at least) by Los Blancos, and he has shown enough well-roundedness to suggest that he will slot in seamlessly. Nothing needs to be said of his goal-scoring and dribbling, but our model also thinks his link-up passing will be more than good enough for him to combine well with his superstar teammates.

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