South Africa’s Electricity Crisis – What Went Wrong This Time?

The South African electricity crisis continues to fuel heated debates at social gatherings as friends and family lambast Eskom for its latest rolling load shedding. Conspiracy theories abound while homeowners and small businesses wonder if they can afford to switch over to solar power. Those who have already switched to alternative energy are sitting contentedly while neighbours’ fume!

South Africans are getting used to sitting in the dark – after all, it’s been going on since 2007 but what went wrong this time that Stage 6 had to be implemented for over a week? While Eskom continues discussions with the government, homeowners and small businesses are beginning to realise that maybe this time around going solar is the only way forward.

The South African Energy Crisis – It’s Nothing New

One thing Eskom knew is that the country’s energy crisis was going to kick into action by 2007 if nothing was done about matching supply with demand. In a December 1998 White Paper presented to the cabinet, Dr. P Maduna, Minister of Minerals and Energy stated, “Eskom’s present generation capacity surplus will be fully utilised by about 2007.”

From 1998, Eskom tried to increase capacity while the government debated privatisation of the energy service provider. In the meantime, the national demand for electricity continued to grow, putting more pressure on aging infrastructure.

Fast Forward to 2022 – What Went Wrong This Time?

Understanding SA’s energy crisis comes from knowing what went wrong after 2007 when the first of national rolling blackouts hit the country. Homeowners and businesses were left reeling in shock but still believing Eskom would get their act together pretty smartly.

What Happened Between 2007 and 2008?

Between 2007 and 2008, South Africans got their first taste of multiple power outages. At the time, load shedding was blamed on:

-       Insufficient supply of coal to coal-fired power plants

-       Inadequate skills to improve and manage energy capacity

-       Increased national demand for electricity

-       Export of electricity to neighbouring African countries

In May 2008, load shedding ended but was the problem really solved?

The Energy Crisis Continues – What Went Down Between 2014 and 2021?

Between 2014 and 2021, South Africa continued to face periods of load shedding for a number of reasons. The South African public were informed of the following as they juggled running homes and businesses without power for extended periods of time:

-       Between 2014 and 2015: The collapse of coal storage silos was blamed for lower electricity generation at Majuba power station while “planned and unplanned maintenance” was also a contributory factor. There were rumours of “unexplained incidents” resulting in a turbine going out of commission at Duvha Power Station.

-       Between February and March 2019: South Africans were introduced to Stage 4 because of loss of generation capacity. Eskom assured their customers this was a temporary situation. Energy experts were already warning of a crisis that was going to escalate if something wasn’t done to reign in the problems.

-       Ongoing between December 2019 and March 2020: The first time South Africa experienced Stage 6 load shedding was in December 2019. Power outages have just reached a whole new energy crisis level! Why? Wet weather, sabotage by a disgruntled Eskom employee and neglect were the main culprits this time around.

-       From March 2021: Since March 2021, the South African energy crisis relentlessly resulted in more load shedding schedules ranging between Stage 1 and 4. Breakdowns at multiple power stations were blamed for ongoing planned and unplanned outages taking place.

Whether it’s aging infrastructure, power station breakdowns, wet weather, sabotage or neglect, it had become obvious Eskom was struggling to supply adequate energy to the country. What now?

Fast Forward to 2022 – What Went Wrong This Time?

Rolling blackouts that started in 2021 continued into 2022 with homeowners and small businesses taking the brunt of limited electricity supply. What went wrong this time around?

The Plague of Breakdowns

SA’s energy crisis continues as a result of breakdowns at power stations and in February 2022, Eskom announced there was a shortage of generation capacity. This was because of two generating units breaking down at the Kusile and Kendal power stations. With the return of power outages, most of the country was back on Stage 2 load shedding.

Instead of improving, the plague of breakdowns continued with half the national grid failing over the Easter weekend in 2022. SA was now dealing with Stage 4 load shedding.

Unhappy Employees and an Illegal Strike Action

In June 2022, disgruntled NUMSA and NUM workers embarked on unlawful strike action. This resulted in further loss of generation capacity – planned maintenance couldn’t go ahead and more breakdowns resulted. Wage deadlocks dragged out the strike action and Stage 6 load shedding was implemented – again.

There was some let up by the end of June when Eskom started wage negotiations again. But, load shedding was becoming an almost daily feature for South Africans, strike or not.

Roll on Summer and Yet More Load Shedding

With the end of winter, there’s always the hope that load shedding would ease up. However, that wasn’t the case and SA’s energy crisis continues to roll on into summer. Eskom had already announced at the end of August 2022 that ongoing unplanned breakdowns plus planned maintenance was responsible for September’s power outages.

However, more wrong than right happened as Eskom dealt with fires and broken coal conveyer belts at Kendal power station. Furthermore, an electricity trip at the Koeberg Nuclear power station escalated the country’s energy crisis, forcing the implementation of Stage 4 and then Stage 5 load shedding.

It wasn’t long afterward, the country was plunged back into Stage 6 load shedding because of generators tripping at Kusile and Kriel power stations.

Final Thoughts

By the middle of September 2022, the country had been hit by 100 days of load shedding and Eskom can’t guarantee light at the end of the tunnel any time soon. Breakdowns, unplanned and planned maintenance, strikes and sabotage are all that went wrong for Eskom this time around. Old power stations are battling to keep up with the country’s electricity demand. Where to now?

President Cyril Ramaphosa has announced plans for private power generation, using renewable sources such as solar and wind to supplement the energy supply. In the meantime, SA’s energy crisis is ongoing and the South African public is finding alternative solutions to managing a catastrophe that affects homeowners and businesses. Is it time to switch to renewable power? 

That potentially not so elusive Stage 8 - What is it?

Eskom Stages 1 - 8 & Eskom Loadshedding historical figures since 2014.