Spain: the elections that nobody lost

Yesterday evening the Spanish vote count for the general elections was a kind of roller coaster. Closing-vote polls were giving a comfortable majority to the right (with the extreme right) in Spain, indicating a major change in Spanish politics. Thus Alberto Feijoo would have been president with the help of the radical VOX.

At 18.4 % of the counting (all graphics are from the Spanish journal El Mundo), the main parties (PP, right and PSOE, left) were at odds and numbers didn’t give a clear winner. However, a tsunami effect was yet to come.

At 25%, Sanchez was overcoming Feijoo by 5 seats, earning 10 seats from the last election and aiming for a “Frankenstein” majority ( as it is called by the Spanish press) So Mr. Handsome could, at this moment, propose a cool Frankie, his own way.

However, when the votes in the capital region (Madrid) started to pour, the situation reversed and remained so until the end.

The result, as stated by the night speeches, is that nobody lost.

Alberto Feijoo is pretty conscious that, even if he won the elections, he doesn’t have an absolute majority. Moreover, a coalition with Vox bars any other party from joining them . Nevertheless he claimed his right to request his nomination as president by the Chamber. Obviously, Feijoo has to do so if he wants to politically survive after the election. While he was speaking in the balcony, supporters where chanting the name of Isabel Ayuso (Madrid region president and charismatic leader of the party, the only person in red in the photo).

Feijoo’s head is also targeted by Santiago Abascal, leader of VOX. Abascal accuses the PP leader of leaving him alone, even of betraying him. The betrayal was, upon VOX, marked by Feijoo not even coming to some debates and contributing to the polarization of the campaign explaining post-election pacts; thus demobilizing voters. Abascal also accuses the campaign polls and the press of being manipulated. Therefore, even if their party lost 19 seats (1/3), he’s not taking the responsibility.

The independentist parties in Catalonia clearly yielded their positions, being overcome (in their own fief) by socialists and the new left party, Sumar. However, they are in a decisive position. And they already reminded so after the counting, requesting, quite directly, a price to vote (or abstain) for Sanchez in the presidential nomination.  A similar position can be claimed by the Basque parties, both PNV conservatives and Bildu radicals. A surprise, Bildu has overpassed PNV, both in votes and seats.

The press is blaming SUMAR of losing 4 seats. However, journalists are comparing SUMAR to Podemos in 2019. I think that some nuance is needed with SUMAR results. Firstly, Podemos practically vanished in the May local elections – any positive result was therefore difficult. Secondly SUMAR is a new brand (if not a new party) composed with the remains of Podemos but also other movements, such as SUMAR itself, the Greens... It was not clear if the new grouping would survive the internal fight to compose the lists, neither the sacrifice of Podemos charismatic heads. Despite the context, they maintain a similar result and a key position to ensure a possible renewal of Pedro Sanchez.

Why are we here?

Evidently, the first cause of these results is the inability of Feijoo to gather a large majority around him. Famous journalist Carlos Alsina, from Onda Cero, named it “Gatillazo” (a brewer’s drop, his own words.) It is clear that the PP leader’s campaign was far from brilliant and that the discourse did not get the attention of a sufficient majority.

But not all the errors were in the campaign. PP is also paying the hard price of their alliances (as I forecasted in May) with VOX in local and regional levels. For two months, voters have seen the endeavors of the extreme-right in power. Endeavors that surely produced a defensive movement against them but also against its necessary springboard, the PP. Like Romeo and Juliet, it was a deadly poisoning marriage.

The VOX impact in PP vote for the Congress is crystal clear in the Senate results. There, the PP has a large majority and VOX evaporated. Thus, the PP actually had a majority, but they did not want the party to govern with VOX at national level. Polls were right… for the Senate.

Sanchez troops were also able to turn around the results of the local and regional elections, as he had taken back the discourse with the national call to vote. Moreover, even the hate slogans and the nasty nickname Perro (dog) Xanxe were flipped and become a strength in the promotion activities of the youngest lines of the party. Yesterday night, the song Perra (She-dog) of Rigoberta Bandini was loudly played at PSOE’s Madrid headquarters.

And what about Mr. Handsome himself? Scenarios

The PSOE obtained more votes and more seats that in 2019, with a superior general rate of voting (70%.) His opponents are far from the large results estimated by the polls and unable to compose a majority. His allies (to be) have the numbers to eventually back Sanchez as president.

After the first successful impeachment in Spain, after being chased by PSOE overlords and coming back, after COVID and a volcano, Mr. Handsome may be the first candidate in Spain to rule being second in the ballots.

Of course, he must build an explosive melting - pot, reuniting votes from almost all the parties (except from PP and VOX, of course) and abstention from the rest. Two factors might make it possible : a “everything but VOX” alliance and a Catalonia settlement (or promise of.)

And even if Sanchez fails, the scenario of new elections (as in 2019) favors him. To begin with, he will remain in power at least until the end of the year (as it was forecasted before he advanced the elections.) Secondly, because he’s a better speaker than Feijoo, and thus can earn some positioning from the debates around the confidence vote. Thirdly, because Feijoo didn’t concede that he has not the majority and wants to “try” (his own words) this confidence vote – which seems suicidal. And finally, as I said in May, because a new balloting will erode even more the smaller parties, concentrating electors around the useful vote.

Two scenarios seem possible. In football terms, Spanish Congress may go to the penalties (a long confidence vote, first for Feijoo, then for Sanchez.) And if penalties fail, Mr. Handsome will have extra time to play the ball. A goal from the right corner does not seem probable as Feijoo is not Messi.

And so even if PSOE does not have a majority, they are far away from the 176 seats for an absolute rule. Still, Pedro Sanchez survived. Again. He’s no longer a perro (dog), he’s a cat. As I said two months ago (IN FRENCH, here) observers must be wary of his resilience!

Note 1: This is my own analysis from data gathered from La Voz de Galicia, Onda Cero, SER radio, El Pais, El Mundo, Publico, and my own notes from speeches, my lectures at Sciences Po Rennes and Political Science Literature.

Note 2: May this post serve as a tribute to my Political Science professor, chair José Vilas Nogueira, who left us in 2010. He would have turn 87 tomorrow (25/07)