[Thoughts] Fixing 9ja 'electric power' - a presidential state of emergency

Not one that so much enters the #polical discourse on open fora. However, a topic touched on an area I had advocated for years: #improved #electricity #access (Maybe, I'll write on it one day)

[Post] 2023: How I will fix Electric Power and Nigerian ports – Peter Obi | He said he will declare a state of emergency in Nigeria's power-producing sector.

If I understand, the presidential hopefuls are saying

• - Egypt went from 20000MW to about 50000MW generating capacity
• - SA generates up to 40000MW and enables IPP of 100MW
• - 9ja generates up to 10000MW
• - 9ja transmits less than 4000MW
• - they will unbundle the Transmission
• - they declare a state of emergency in its power-producing sector to achieve at least 20000MW in 4 years.

A couple of things:

Has the LP presidential hopeful taken into consideration

1. The cycle or process of power generation, transmission and distribution/consumption

2. Generation without commensurate #transmission capacity, (matching distribution) leads to grid collapse

3. Egypt, as of around 2013 (a DECADE ago), has about

• - 30000MW (30GW) transmission operating 'load'
• - 45GW transmission capacity
• - 30GW generating capacity
• - 90% powered by fossil fuels (of which 60% is gas)
• - over 90% distribution access for consumption by her population
• - increasing tariff

4. Despite population access of almost 100%, Egypt faces 'prolonged' outages! Hence, the electricity crisis!!!

5. From 2014, Egypt embarked on generation AND transmission capacity-increasing projects

• - by 2022, add about 30GW generation capacity (from electric power production units + the Benban solar energy complex). PS: this received world recognition for the feat achieved (size and duration). In-btw, this costed around 355billion Egyptian Pound; that's about US$15b
• - national generation capacity stands at about 75GW
• - ongoing frantic effort to match transmission with new generation capacity.
• - already, about twenty-one 500 kV transformer station added
• - many more to be added urgently within the current 5yr plan.

Regarding South Africa, devoid of details to keep space, has the presidential hopeful consider that:

6. SA is facing a rolling blackout (termed load-shedding). By the way, this was like the 'planned' shutdown we used to have in 9ja in the days of ECN

7. SA has more than tripled electricity tariffs in the last decade

8. SA has no end in sight of its electricity crisis.

9. SA is looking to learn from others while, they, the presidential hopeful are looking to learn from SA! #Paradox of sorts. In-btw, SA is engaging with the UK and the likes of the same Germany to bolster its crumpling energy crisis

10. I thought 9ja is executing a sort of energy state of emergency. We'll sort of, as the speed of execution could be faster and more clinical

• - Siemens transmission grid expansion (just like Egypt's ongoing effort to match its transmission to its new generation)
• - Siemens Energy implementing Nigeria’s Presidential Power Initiative (PPI)
• - 9ja and French AFD signing €25m deal to strengthen power transmission (North -West corridor)
• - Afdb $250m deal for 9ja Transmission Expansion Project – phase 1 (NTEP 1) to bring transmission capacity at par with generation's 10GW

11. Seemly, 9ja national Transmission Rehabilitation and Expansion Programme (TREP) is multiphase. Are the presidential hopeful critically hopeful of this and bringing crisis change mgt.

12. The 9ja PPI (strategically anchored around Siemens Energy) is already projected to bring transmission capacity to about 25GW. Are we, according to the LP presidential hopeful going to 'deterioratingly' regress back to 20GW by 2027 (their LP's 4 yrs energy crisis SoE action plan)

13. Undeniably, 9ja need a smart grid beyond just smart metering (upstream and downstream).

14. In-btw, hopefully, the LP presidential hopefuls are aware of 9ja unbundling (unlike SA frantically finalising her unbundling into Transmission, Generation and Distribution divisions | Transmission Company of Nigeria PLC

15. In all, let tens of GW roll in unabated!!!!