The Three questions we must ask for 2019

Partisans have gone berserk on social media. Sometimes overboard if you will. Every statement by the Prime Minister or Rahul Gandhi is seen as a big win by the partisans even without understanding how it is impacting the lives of citizens. In my view here are the three questions we must ask ourselves to get a good feel of what might happen in 2019

1. How Satisfied are we with the current Government?
2. If Dissatisfied, are we open to trying the opposition?
3. If open to trying the opposition, what is the biggest hook?

Let us go back to 2014 and 2009 and answer the above questions

2009

1. Satisfied
2. No
3. None

2014

1. Dissatisfied
2. Yes
3. Narendra Modi

In case of the 2019 election, the biggest catch is the question to answer 1. Unlike 2009 and 2014, the answer to question 1 is a little grey in 2019. In 2009, with growth above 8%, it was an open and shut case. In 2014, with growth below 6%, it was also an open and shut case. In 2019, with growth around 7%, it is not bad but it is not great either.

If we answer 'dissatisfied' as the first answer, do we not turn up on election day or do we actually vote for the opposition? And if we are open to the opposition, what is the biggest hook? Voters who are heavily driven by security (example: Minorities) may vote for the opposition even with the basic promise of security. The swing voters of 2014 (let us say about 10% of the electorate) will have to firstly be dissatisfied with the Government and second, find a good reason to reverse their decision. The size of this 10% is really the big deciding factor of 2019. If more than half of this group defect Mr. Modi is unlikely to return to power.

What is data saying?

1. 47% of voters said they are satisfied with the Modi Government in May (CSDS). In May 2009, the UPA Government scored about 65%. Other surveys have given the Government a satisfaction score between 55 and 60%. This suggests losses in the hindi heartland
2. Even with a relatively lower satisfaction score, the ruling party will improve in performance in Odisha, North East and Bengal and with some luck Kerala
3. On the other hand, the Opposition Viability has improved. In May 2014, there was a 20 point gap between Modi and Rahul Gandhi. That has fallen now to 10 points.
4. On the issue of opposition hook, there is no clear data available.

• However, the RBI data suggests that economic distress is a big factor. When Modi came to power in 2014, a net of 23% reported that their incomes had increased in the last 12 month, by November 2018, it came down to 9%. It is a definite improvement over 2017 but significantly lower than 2014.
• The other issue is that while food inflation is down, service inflation is above 6% and at the same level as 2014. Indians perhaps are spending more and more money on services than ever before. (current inflation rate is calculated using 2011-12 basket of goods). This was visible in the recent state elections also
• Then as the recent elections have shown, there are issues around employment that are bothering every State. Even considering the most liberal EPFO method, UP apparently created some 240000 jobs in the last 12 months. That is a state that contributes to about 3 million youth every year and even accounting for losses in labour force participation (40%) and many remaining in the farm or in their family businesses, it is not difficult to imagine a high degree of unemployment

Still, one cannot say with confidence one is clear if the opposition is offering a different economic alternative. The only economic difference is Farm Loan waivers and that is not necessarily a big hook for most of the swing voters.

The answers to the three questions are indicating a close election and not a landslide (as of now). The Prime Minister's interview on new year day is to push his ratings up on Question number 1. The Rahul Gandhi Rafale attack was on trying to reduce the PM's ratings on 1. and improve his own ratings on 2.

Going ahead, it will not be a surprise if the PM makes more efforts to bolster '1' while discrediting the opposition on '2'. The opposition will have the difficult task of attacking '1' and also improving its chances on '2' and '3'. It is a very fascinating election ahead but keep your mind on these 3 questions!