If the threshold of a warming of 1.5º C is crossed, the climatic anomaly will intensify

It must be taken into account that if an intercontinental drought occurs for a year, all the great harvests will be lost and, as a result, between 2 and 4 billion human beings will die of hunger, within 3 months of this terminal crisis.

There will be a lack of drinking water, food, the cities that depend on mountain rivers, glaciers and snow, will no longer have water to drink. We are not prepared at a global level to face such a crisis... And this is only the beginning, even worse scourges await us, if we do not immediately stop global warming.

“Currently, underwater carbon reservoirs release greenhouse gases into the atmosphere as the oceans warm due to human activity. If underwater carbon stores are disturbed again, they will emit a huge new source of greenhouse gases, exacerbating climate change," said Lowell Stott, professor of Earth sciences at the University of Southern California. and lead author of the study, cited by the portal phys.org.

“The big challenge is that we don't have estimates of the size of these or which ones are particularly vulnerable to destabilization. This is something that has yet to be determined. The last time it happened, climate change was so great that it caused the end of the ice age. Once that geological process starts, we won't be able to stop it," Stott warned.

“At the current rate of increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, the planet is likely to experience several degrees of increase in global temperature and large-scale changes such as loss of ice sheets that could lead to a rise in the level of the sea of several meters in this century”, according to Dr. James Hansen.

"Two degrees Celsius of warming would make planet Earth much warmer than during the Eemian, and bring it closer to Pliocene conditions, when sea levels were about 25 meters higher than today," Hansen said.

The Secretary General of the United Nations, António Guterres, is summoning all the governments of the planet to urgent Climate Action. In this sense, the support of a core scientific report on the Arctic permafrost cycle, carbohydrates in the Arctic and carbon reservoirs in the oceans is required.

The United Nations is currently talking about organizing the efforts of all countries to reduce carbon emissions by 45% before 2030 and reach zero emissions by 2050. This objective may be insufficient, if we are only a short time away from critical threshold for the abrupt chain reaction of methane gas release in the Arctic Circle and carbon in the other world oceans. If this is the case, it will be necessary to reach zero emissions immediately.

IRREVERSIBLE TURNING POINTS

Professor Johan Rockström, Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Dr David Armstrong McKay of the University of Exeter warn that giant ice sheets, ocean currents and permafrost regions may already have passed the point of irreversible inflection.

The collapse of the Greenland glaciers is in an active phase and accelerating with the current 1.1º C increase in global temperature. Ocean levels can rise rapidly. The North Atlantic haline current may collapse, disrupting the rainfall cycles that billions of people depend on for food. Permafrost rich in carbon and methane gas can thaw abruptly.

When the threshold of 1.5º C is reached, there will be changes in the vast northern forests and losses in almost all mountain glaciers. The researchers indicate that the world is heading towards a warming of 2/3º C, which will activate 16 tipping points and others in cascade. With possible destabilization of the Amazon rainforest and its irreversible loss, affecting the climate of the entire planet. The extinction of tropical coral reefs will also take place along with changes in the West African monsoon and the Indian summer monsoon, with likely loss of oxygen from the ocean. In addition, the melting of the Antarctic glaciers will be accelerated.

THE FIRST 6 CLIMATE POINTS OF "NO RETURN"

• The collapse of the Greenland ice sheet.

• The collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.

• The collapse of the oceanic circulation in the polar region of the North Atlantic.

• Extinction of coral reefs in low latitudes.

• Sudden melting of permafrost (permanently frozen ground layer) in northern regions.

• Abrupt loss of sea ice in the Barents Sea.

Lead study author David Armstrong McKay, from the Stockholm Resilience Centre, University of Exeter and the Earth Commission, said signs of destabilization are already being seen in the polar regions, and this is the step that precedes to system collapse.

1ºC MORE AND THE OCEANS WILL RISE UP TO 9 METERS

Keeping the temperature from rising more than two degrees Celsius is not enough, concluded Dr. James Hansen, a climate change expert and former NASA scientist.

Two degrees Celsius of warming would make planet Earth much warmer than during the Eemian, and bring it closer to Pliocene conditions, when sea levels were about 25 meters higher than today.

Hansen said the paleoclimate record suggests that every degree Celsius rise in global temperature could ultimately lead to 20 meters of sea level rise.

Man-made release of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere also presents climatologists with something they have never seen in 65 million years of records of carbon dioxide levels.

THE ECONOMIC SYSTEM IN TOTAL COLLAPSE

According to Dr. James Hansen when it reaches 450 ppm of CO2, in 2030, the global average temperature will rise 2º C., then the oceans could rise 6 meters or more. This new global situation will disrupt the entire global economic and fiscal system. In addition to causing the evacuation of 600 million people in the coastal cities of the planet.

The physical assets, the real estate of all those places will go to zero overnight, long before when the information that the global flood phenomenon begins to spread through the scientific spokesmen, the properties on the coast will begin to lose value in a cascade and the holders of the same will stop paying their taxes to the municipal, provincial and national States. There will be a crack on the tax collection system. And world currencies will break down.

Months and years before the floodwaters cover the cities, the people will be held captive in the doomed cities, unable to migrate to the highlands, because they will not be able to sell their houses, as they will have lost all market value.

Thawing will be slow and gradual, it will take several years. First the coastline will run away. The beach will disappear, then the coastal pavement will be covered, later the sewage and rainwater systems, along with the basements of the buildings located in the lowest places will begin to flood and their foundations will lose stability and crumble. Then the sea water will begin to flow through the gutter cord until it ascends the path and reaches the entrances of the houses.

It will be enough for an organization like the IPCC to officially report that this level of flooding cannot be stopped and that it will begin in the medium term, for property values to plummet and the economic system to panic and totally collapse. To do? Do not report and keep silent? Then the emergency measures will not be taken and the cities will be condemned to flood... what is worse?

“If humanity wishes to conserve a planet similar to the one on which our civilization developed and for which life on Earth is adapted, paleoclimatic evidence and ongoing climate change suggest that (current levels of) CO2 will have to reduced to a maximum of 350 ppm," said Dr. James Hansen, an American physicist and climatologist, adjunct professor in the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia University.

Hansen reflects that as long as fossil energy is the cheapest, it will not be possible to solve the problem of climate change. That is why the capital system develops hydraulic fracturing (fracking) to obtain more gas and more oil. The situation will not change until carbon taxes are imposed.

He warns that when 450 ppm of CO2 is reached, the sea level will rise a minimum of 6 meters, but it is unknown how quickly the ice will respond, given that the composition of the atmosphere has never varied as rapidly as it does now.

50 million years ago the level of CO2 doubled and the planet warmed 6º C more, but it took 2,000 years to do so. But with human pollution now CO2 has doubled in just a century.

CONTRADICTION BETWEEN COASTAL PROPERTY INCOME AND THE ACCELERATION OF GLOBAL WARMING

What does this mean for capital and for income?

That the equation of credit, investment risk and capital recovery must be recalculated.

The construction of tower buildings, through financing and risk coverage, can no longer be adjusted to previous parameters. Today it is necessary to adjust the cost of money or capital to the LESS TIME OF USEFUL LIFE OF COASTAL CITIES.

That is, investments in coastal cities are already affected by the anomaly or global warming, and there is a global scientific consensus, money cannot be lent or investments made in areas that will be irreversibly flooded without modifying the recovery equation based on time and the real increase of the risk.

Considering that less than 30 years on average is the maximum hypothesis, what to do about the minimum hypothesis?

Today there is talk of an increase of 3 millimeters per year in ocean waters.

But since the anomaly is just that, an anomaly, at any moment any retroaction can accelerate the phenomenon and go 5 or 10 centimeters a year.

From there to panic and chaos there will only be half a step.

If the oceans can suddenly rise centimeters, logic will say that at any moment they could rise by meters.

This means that construction projects in these locations, with a capital recovery time of over 10 years, start to have a high risk today.

To the extent that the anomaly increases, the terms will decrease.

Such a direct relationship causes the cost of investment money in flood zones to rise rapidly, once the full scope of the worldwide and unanimous scientific confirmation of the anomaly from the economic aspect is understood.

Now, it is not logical to propose long-term projects of more than the average of 30 years in coastal cities.

And this time of 30 years is subject to the evolution of global warming.

If it worsens and such a worsening of the situation is concretely evident, the term will decrease to the point of making any projection of investment in coastal points irrational, without considering the growing risk of global flooding.

Insurers and global banks, once they understand this equation, will immediately modify the cost-benefit ratios for such possible investments.

Their objective is not to lose money, so they will finance the necessary studies to adjust the financing models and measure the risk in coastal cities, case by case.

ZERO EMISSIONS IN 5 YEARS

DRACONIAN MEASURES

The matrix concept and basic strategy in the process of ecoformation of the Earth is energy saving, low consumption in all aspects. Slow down spending, even if this means reducing global GDP growth in the early years. There is an imprint of zero polluting emissions immediately and the extraction of greenhouse gases. This can no longer be done incrementally, because we have run out of reserve time. It is necessary to apply surgery without anesthesia on the global production-consumption system.

What is the equation? It is better to reduce the world economy by 10% and not have to suffer a 50% contraction due to the cause and effect of uncontrolled global warming in 5 to 10 years. In addition, the reduction is temporary, until the biosphere is stabilized and sustainable replacement technologies are operationally installed.

Within the global energy saving policy, it will be necessary to turn off the lights in cities after 8:00 p.m., thus reducing electricity consumption.

Prohibit tourism to reduce the consumption of hydrocarbons in national and international transport systems.

Ban cruise ships, which consume the equivalent of cities with 50,000 inhabitants. Reduce flights, given that aviation annually pollutes the equivalent of the annual CO2 production of all of Africa.

Ban the consumption of meat and reduce livestock stocks to reduce methane gas emissions from cattle, which on average produce between 250-500 liters of methane per day. Livestock emit the methane equivalent of 3.1 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere per year globally.

In addition to combined pastures for grazing, plus crops for feeding the farm, livestock occupies 77% of the world's agricultural land. Being the main cause of clearing and felling of the rain forest. While it only produces 18% of total calories and 37% of protein. To solve this it is advised to switch to a massive vegetarian diet.

SUPPLACE TRANSPORTATION

Environmental pollution is aggravated throughout the world by a fleet of 1.2 billion vehicles with combustion engines, consuming hydrocarbons and eliminating CO2 from the atmosphere. This situation is repeated like a trace in all cities. The solution lies directly in replacing this form of transport with a more rational and less polluting one. Even freeing large cities from smog.

The Delta System allows the advantages of the subways to be transported aerially. It consists of a series of reinforced concrete arcaded arches, with a foundation base of the same material, completely prefabricated, installed at a distance of 25 meters each and joined by a hollow beam at the top. The wagons run through this track, which can be by mechanical, electrical or levitated system.

For it to be understood, it is necessary to go to zero CO2 emissions in the next 5 years and at the same time capture carbon dioxide to reduce its inertia. Do it by intensively planting billions of trees and by using hundreds of thousands of CO2 extractor fans like those experienced in Canada.

Avoid reaching 1.5º C and 2º C.

Measures must be gradual and global, coordinated at the global level, and mitigated through sustainable replacement technologies.

The scientific confirmation of the acceleration of Global Warming, through the report of the Gaia Team and that we have 5 years left for the positive feedbacks of the ecosystems to begin, will cause the flows of intensive capital to abruptly shift towards sustainable investments with urgency.

From the Green Interbanks strategy we are anticipating this, we are preparing to provide financial support in the face of the climate emergency and assist the governments of the planet, planning the materially possible solutions and gathering the human, technological and economic resources to face this challenge of survival of all of our specie.

We have selected three initial projects towards which to direct financial resources:

1. Compact fission reactors to supply electricity to cities and electric transportation systems.

2. Delta System, urban elevated train to replace vehicular units in cities.

3. Geothermal energy for intensive production of cheap electricity anywhere in the world.

Solutions are in the works...