Is Tim Draper's prediction of $250,000 Bitcoin by 2022 Quantum Probabilistic?

Meaning our Rt Honourable friend VC Tim Draper's prediction for $250,000 BTC by 2022 is plausibly right, wrong and already exists in parallel universes! Let's address the probabilistic scenarios as Morpheus sees it...

So in a comment I wrote on Blockchain Company weeks ago, I beg to differ from a CNBC analyst who asserted Bitcoin should bounce dramatically to the upside after it reaches $7500 support. In no uncertain terms, my personal assessment of where Bitcoin is headed is based on closer observation of lets just say the top 100 Coinmarketcap.com to keep things very simple, implying all listed circa 1500 cryptocurrencies. I infer you to also read my Linkedin article titled " Is Cardano's $23bn Marketcap in only 4 months an imminent market crash sign? "

written on January 3rd, 2018, where I implied we may be on verge of a crash in the crypto markets, using Cardano as my impetus! Well, the crash happened.

" the empirical way to ascertain if we are in a paradigm bubble, is to observe irrational consumer behaviour and align it with parallels of history. Therefore uncanny historical parallels herein, are somewhat similar to 1929... " morpheus thinks

I live and breathe blockchain development and crypto currencies evolution as a new paradigm that will most inevitable change everything and industry sector in between. However I'm more interested in the impact of blockchain as a reorganising of everything tool for an advanced civilisation, rather than the nascent rise of cryptocurrencies in terms of their value. I also believe we are on the verge of the tokenisation of just about everything, meaning your Starbucks coffee will soon be tokenised with value, and so will your Amazon purchases be ultimately tokenised through an Amazoncoin, as well as your Tesla in this new paradigm economy.

" my probabilistic arguement... if bitcoin surges to $250,000 from circa $6000 support without an 80 to 90 percent correction, then that will pose a significant systemic risk to the global economy, probably worse than the dot com bubble, leading to dire market consequences. If however, the crypto markets do correct by up to 90 percent, it should naturally rid itself of scams, market manipulation and irrelevant crypto assets. Hence an orderly regulated market towards $250,000 BTC should ensue over time... " morpheus thinks

There are two likely scenarios, both leading to Tim Draper's prediction. However, the timing depends on certain factors. In the first instance, lets suppose Bitcoin rebounds very strongly from hence onwards, breaks through resistance of circa $12,000 and heads towards $20,000 and breaks through circa $25,000 towards $30,000 BTC by year end 2018 according to several analysts and Hedge fund managers. In this scenario, which could then attain Tim Draper's forecast of $250k BTC by 2022, the problem here is a huge colossal systemic risk to our underlying global economy. Why? Simply because it would mean the top 100 cryptocurrencies such as Cardano, EOS, Ripple, Neo and co, will all go along with Bitcoin for the ride. Nothing wrong with that, however there is a problem! There are no true earnings and fundamentals of any kind in most of the cryptocurrencies that currently exist in the marketplace.

It would be like saying the top 100 Nasdaq or Dow 100 are full of companies with no earnings or fundamentals to justify their market price and valuations. It would mean your coffee, car, banking and all kinds of services really do not exist, hence a kind of illusion economy that we all live in. This scenario is quite plausible in a kind of simulated economy, however we are living in a real one where those items truly exist to enable our global economy, hence true and real fundamentals and earnings. Now unless you believe the current Coinmarketcap is leading us into a kind of economy where machine to machine will very soon create a virtualised economy for themselves, based on algorithms humans may not understand, then I think Tim Draper et al are spot on!

However if you believe we still need to live in a real economy where fundamentals need to be implied to solve real problems such as climate change, improved infrastructure, eliminate poverty, reorganise banking, bring healthcare into the blockchain, make supply chains more transparent and so on, then in order for Tim Draper's prediction to happen, the " CURRENT " crypto market has to correct by up to 90 percent in order to make way for real value tokenisation and not just algorithmic tokenisation as it currently is. You will have to take a close look and believe the current crypto market place is making a real impact to improve lives on planet earth, just like the Dow and Nasdaq companies have done for several decades. You will also have to believe the assets on coinmarketcap are far more valuable than Google, Tesla, amazon, Walmart, Ford, Procter & Gamble, Apple and so on. You will also have to believe the current market is very orderly as it is and this trajectory is indeed the future and it is up up and away from henceforth.

I beg to differ and think even if it is up up and away from henceforth, it poses a serious systemic risk to the real economy as all the cryptos will simply follow Bitcoin like humpty dumpty, giving the entire Coinmarketcap a market valuation in excess of $5 trillion based on an algorithmic tokenised economy, rather than a real token economy. Meaning a gigantic bubble that will have to burst, unless there is an uncanny machine to machines economy brewing and humans simply don't understand what its purpose may be. E,g Energy extraction? I don't know.

What I do know, is what i'd like to see in the parallel universe we currently live in, and that is an orderly market where Bitcoin behaves as a new store of value, like a digital gold, that is de-coupled from all the rest as a haven currency you can spend. If the crypto markets work correctly, it should mean the entire market cap of all the other cryptocurrencies should exceed the market cap of Bitcoin, and not the other way around. They should trade on their own merit and not tag along like humpty dumpty with bitcoin.

Do you see what I see, or am I missing something?

Cheers! Morpheus is rattled.