Top Research Picks for June 2024

There are so many elections around the world this year, so it is time to check the implications for investors in our top research picks for June.

The US election campaign is heating up

Biden and Trump just had their first TV debate, and the signs are growing in favour of a second Trump term in office. What should investors keep in mind now? Read more

"Investment returns during US presidential election years have been favourable for equity and credit investors outside of recession years. This is consistent with our optimism on both asset classes amidst the current economic expansion," Union Bancaire Privée observed.

Snap parliamentary elections in France unsettle markets

France is heading to the ballots starting this weekend. Polls deem a Macron victory as highly unlikely and predict an RN victory. Read more

"The knock-on effects of Macron’s gamble are uncertain. The ideal scenario for the President would be to pull off a De Gaulle-style manoeuvre with the message: ‘me or chaos’," wrote Bruno Cavalier, Chief economist at ODDO BHF.

What the outcome of UK elections could mean for UK assets

The UK is heading to the polls on July 4. The latest polling suggests that the Labour Party might gain a majority. Read more

“Radical spending plans have been absent from the Labour campaign and fiscal headroom is limited, meaning this election poses far less risk to markets than previous ones,” commented Simon Gergel, Chief Investment Officer, UK Equities, at Allianz Global Investors.

What does the Sheinbaum presidency mean for investors?

On 2 June 2024, Mexico elected its first female president. Claudia Sheinbaum is expected to try to carry on the strong performance engineered by her predecessor. Read more

"We see the markets demanding a higher risk premium on Mexican assets in the near term as the blowout win for Sheinbaum and the Morena Party increases fear over constitutional reforms that will make fiscal consolidation harder and impede Mexico’s ability to attract capital," Laura A. Ostrander, Emerging Markets Macro Strategist and Portfolio Manager at State Street Global Advisors.

India election: end of the single-party control

In India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) did not get the whopping majority they hoped for. Read more

"Although the result is disappointing and could have a negative impact on some market sectors, we do not believe it will change the policy direction of the BJP-led NDA. The focus will remain on developing the manufacturing base through the Production Led Incentives (PLI) programme, shifting infrastructure growth from public to private sector, focus on renewable energy and boosting consumption and a possible renewed focus on rural incomes," Murali Yerram, Portfolio Manager at Franklin Templeton said.

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