#Twitter vs. #Threads by Meta - and the Winner is #Bytedance?

#Twitter vs. #Threads by Meta - and the Winner is #Bytedance

I reserved my public thoughts on #Threads since its launch a few weeks ago. I wanted to take some time to observe and view what the Meta strategy might have been, and early signs looked like a coup for Meta with Threads gaining a lot of users in its first week, the reality of active users spending time on the platform is setting in.

I just had a feeling that this product was built on opportunism and a myopic view of where social engagement and content trends were heading - If not just a basic pissing contest and "Cage match" between two tech Moguls.

And my feelings are somewhat confirmed after reports in the last few days of active users declining from the touted 100 Million a couple weeks back to now hovering around the low 20 Millions.

The bigger concern here however isn't the precipitous drop in active users, its the thinning out of active use time by the those that remain. Which based on recent reports has dropped from a peak of 21 Minutes to now less than 6 minutes.

Amidst this massive warfare between Twitter & Meta, the real winner might be Bytedance and TikTok, as it lays low and continues to increase its active userships and time spent on app. The different way it monetizes its platform is also opening avenues up for non-ad opportunities.

Here are a few of my thoughts around #threads that had it "Wheeled out on Life Support" - I resist the urge to call it "Dead on Arrival" just yet. Please note that some of my points come from a perspective of being based in Asia-Pacific markets.

1. Another text based social platform with no content innovation.

And this is a legitimate concern here, yes you've created what is essentially a Twitter clone, and yes you have the easy onramp for users from the Insta port over, but what are you doing to make the content formats more interesting and engaging for its users to keep them there? You're also offering less features then twitter currently has at the moment, which if these feature were there to enhance stickiness and engagement could keep some level of interest with it.

2. People have shifted away from pure text based social platforms, particularly the next generation of users.

I'll admittedly switch my twitter app one once a day to get my ESPN updates. But I'm clearly not sitting in the younger generation of internet users anymore - as much rizz as I think I have; my younger colleagues says that cheugy of me 😅 . Many of them have never interacted with Twitter and they fundamentally don't prefer the mechanics of those platforms. Majority of them enjoy and engage with short form video content that is served up based on their areas of interest. Another interesting point here is that a lot of users in Asia Pacific are "Lurkers"; they are there to scroll and view content to fill their spare-time or find something entertaining, they're not keen on "engaging" with content. Threads still encourages this as per its name you have to build on the thread of the contents. Despite having an algorithm, the basic mechanics still requires an engagement to get the most out of the platform.

3. A wacky algorithm that currently serves more macro influencer/creator content and advertisements.

This is the big kicker here, creators and influencers only maintain their influence when they stick to content that keeps their audience captivated. This format at the moment simply encourages an overabundance of content that doesn't fit that format or narrative. Imagine seeing random daily messages of "positivity" from creators who were known for creating video shorts or long-form one a week. There wasn't enough time for creators to adapt their channel strategy to this brave new world. They're attempting to take a TikTok strategy to a Twitter Format - sounds great on paper... until you realise my previous point is why TikTok's algorithm works. There also isn't a single ability for users to customise this feed to their liking. What you see is what you get currently.

Here's a great article on the short fallings of Threads and where the feed just doesn't have it yet.

4. It's monetisation model is the same as before; Ads

This is just another format for Meta to serve up the same thing in all its other platforms - Ads. If we haven't gotten enough of it served up on your other platforms, here's another one where big advertisers can instantly port over from Meta and inundate you, especially in the early days of low content quality on Threads.

But let's take a look at some trends happening in social we're seeing movement towards things like "Live Commerce" and "Token Tipping".

On the latter - Token Tipping; recent Data.ai stats have TikTok Token purchases as the highest revenue driven by any app ever.

https://www.data.ai/en/insights/market-data/tiktok-app-milestone-840-million-spend/

And "Live Commerce" is now the fastest growing form of digital commerce,

"According to a recent report by Coresight Research, global live commerce sales are expected to reach $171 billion USD in 2023, up from $60 billion USD in 2019. This highlights the growing importance of live streaming in the e-commerce industry." - extracted from

But this trend is largely driven by Asia Pacific markets, where they seem to be ahead of the curve in early adoption for digital trends.

5. Twitter had pockets of interests in Asia, but never a die-hard userbase.

The exception being Japan and maybe Indonesia (though that's taken a dip as of late); Twitter has never been extremely popular in Asia. People had generally gravitated to Meta platforms or Youtube. So is Meta being too myopic here with a pure focus on US and some western markets? The largest population of internet and social users are outside the US and they are also the early adopters of some of the trends aforementioned. The only users Meta is likely to gain here would be the existing Twitter users, while not small, doesn't take a look at the bigger picture of the future of the internet. That future isn't very American and it definitely doesn't prioritise the Twitter format.

6. Massive distraction for Bytedance to take advantage of.

Despite all the legal issues on capitol hill that Bytedance & TikTok has faced over the last year, this tussle between Twitter and Meta will become a boon for Bytedance and it tries to hedge its bet with apps like "Lemon8". Tiktok is only increasing the average active use time amongst its users, but its also starting to increase its usership amongst adults. *Gasp* - Yes, the millenials and Xers that once swore off TikTok are now creeping onto the platform. And that's probably because they realised that the platform is much more than just dances and challenges and that it really does serve you the content that you have interest in or enjoy even if its the most random and unique type of topics you're into. Ancient linguistics or cats with human voices - It's there and it'll find its way to your feed eventually. But the most interesting bit has to be the rise of "Lemon8" and how it hasn't made a splash on the headlines as much as Threads. It's reminiscent of the same rise that TikTok had during the Covid days.

This western clone of "XiaoHongShu" is catching on and the main reason it's popular is because of its ability to serve content up based on topic areas and has become a place to learn about new dining spots, Home DIY, interesting gadgets, make-up tutorials and more. Essentially taking the crux of "Community Marketing" and creating a space for it to flourish. It also doesn't have as much opportunity for those toxic "Twitter" arguments and discourse to happen - the stuff the Threads is trying to avoid, because that just doesn't have a natural place in a platform that encourages discovery, self-help and learning. However active usership in the US has dropped, with users claiming it to be over-curated to the point of blandness.

But the one thing in all these "Battle of the Social Network" developments is that the apps by Bytedance have created a space in the gaps. Whereas Twitter and Meta are fighting over the same users with this Threads play. That provides opportunity to capture attention and keep it.

But what are your thoughts? Who do you think will win in all of this?

Twitter, Threads, TikTok? Does a winner even emerge or will our social experience become more fragmented?