What do the General Election manifestos tell us about the potential green policy environment over the next five years?

With the general election taking place on the 4th of July 2024, each Party’s manifesto has now been released. The Party which gains power will need to finalise a new Net Zero Strategy, improving on the last two attempts by the current Conservative government, which were deemed unlawful. This article reviews and summarises their stances on sustainability and achieving Net Zero, highlighting a few key policy commitments to be aware of.

Prior to the release of the manifestos, we speculated about the impact of a Labour government on sustainability through the lens of a housing provider (which you can read here). The manifesto seems to have confirmed some of the tentative policies that we covered, including the review of the right-to-buy discounts that were introduced in 2012. The plans to accelerate Net Zero have been fleshed out, and now include a view to green finance and specifically supports the introduction of a carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM). This may help to reduce supply chain emissions by placing a higher financial cost on high-carbon emitting products such as cement and steel. More policy costings have also been provided, including a £6.6 billion commitment to the Warm Homes Plan throughout the next parliament.

However, there was nothing specific on biodiversity policy, although Labour state an appetite to “unlock the building of homes affected by neutrality without weakening environmental protection”. The statement makes it unclear whether nutrient neutrality would be repealed or reformed, making this an area to watch should Labour form a government.

The Conservative government have a mixed record on sustainability. The Party committed Net Zero to law and has introduced the policy, guidance and grant funding to facilitate this. However, in recent years, the Conservatives seem to be pivoting away from Net Zero and the manifesto seems to follow this trend. The manifesto sets out that North Sea oil and gas extraction and the construction of new gas power stations are priorities for them to ensure “energy security” and job creation. With their new strategy characterised as a “pragmatic and proportionate approach to Net Zero”, it is unclear how the Party plans to hit Net Zero with such commitments to fossil fuel extraction and combustion. A promise to abolish the legacy EU nutrient neutrality rule is disheartening, as the loosening of planning laws seems a step in the wrong direction for land and water pollution.

The silver linings of this manifesto include a promise of £6 billion for energy efficiency upgrades over the next three years and an energy efficiency voucher scheme to support the installation of energy efficiency measures and solar panels, open to every household in England.

The Liberal Democrat’s third commitment in their manifesto is ‘a fair deal on the environment’, showcasing their commitment to green policies that are echoed throughout the manifesto. Their main objective is to hold large companies to account by giving them a duty to protect the environment, which would include banning water companies from dumping raw sewage into rivers, lakes and coastal areas. However, this commitment is rather vague, and it is unclear how things would change from the current approach. For housing, the Party would introduce an emergency Home Energy Upgrade programme including free insulation and heat pumps for low-income households, running for ten years. Changes in how sustainability is governed are also on the table, including the introduction of national and local citizens’ assemblies and the appointment of a Chief Secretary for Sustainability in the Treasury. Alongside these measures, the establishment of a Net Zero Delivery Authority to coordinate climate action across government departments displays the Lib Dems’ ideas to make Net Zero policy more holistic. Finally, the Party wishes to make it cheaper and easier to switch to electric vehicles, restoring the requirement that every new car and small van sold from 2030 is zero emissions. The Lib Dem’s financing of these policies is unclear, although they will be paid for in part by a sewage tax on £2.2 billion in water company annual profits.

There is an abundance of green policies included in the Green Party manifesto (too many for them all to be covered in this article), so only the key points on housing will be summarised here. The Greens promise to require house builders to include solar panels and low-carbon heating systems for all new homes and ensure residents of those homes wouldn’t need to be car-dependent. Elected Greens would also campaign for all new homes to meet Passivhaus or equivalent standards, and for the Minimum Energy Efficiency Standard to be raised to EPC C. The Party also want all planning applications to be required to include whole-life carbon and energy calculations, covering construction, maintenance and operational use, a critical area on which the proposed Future Homes Standard falls short. These policies would make house building more expensive, but the latter would help house builders more accurately account for their scope 3 carbon emissions.

Finally, we have Reform, a Party who have taken on the concept of Net Zero throughout the election campaign. Reform UK have stated in their manifesto that Net Zero is ‘crippling the economy’ and that they would scrap this national commitment if they came to power. The event that this happens is highly unlikely but demonstrates how the Party would vote and the agenda that they would follow should they win seats in the House of Parliament. The annual £10 billion in renewable energy subsidies would also be scrapped, and they would legislate to scrap EU regulations with immediate effect as they argue that Net Zero is based on EU regulations. It is safe to say that should Reform UK win seats in parliament, their voices in Houses of Parliament debates on the environment will be ones of dissent.

Across all parties, except Reform UK, there is an encouraging trend of commitments to increasing renewable capacity, be that based on offshore wind, solar power, hydrogen or marine energy. Building carbon capture and storage facilities is championed by both Labour and the Conservatives.

To conclude, Friends of the Earth and Greenpeace joined forces to rank the political parties’ manifestos ahead of polling day on 4th July, which can be found in Table 1 (Reform UK was not included in this analysis). According to polling, Labour is most likely to be the incumbent Government, which seems to mean a positive step in the direction of a greener nation more primed for our 2050 Net Zero target. However, their manifesto leaves much to be desired. The number of respective other parties in the Houses of Parliament lending their voice for or against this agenda will help to shape how this looks after July 4th.