When to buy and when to sell , that is what is relevant.

Never confuse a bull market with personal insight or acumen, similarly never be too despondent on yourself for getting a small fortune after investing a larger one in a bear market.

So you get the hot tip , the next sure thing , I speaking about ETFs of course, so when do you put your money in and when do you take out, its called market timing. Truth be known no one is any good at this and it ought to be discouraged.

Now assuming that everything to know about what you are investing in is known to everyone then the price of the bond , MBS , REIT , futures contract, or stock is always at fmv. Or is it ?  There are a few who say otherwise and create elaborate Peter paying Paul Ponzi schemes to show this price at fmv is not all that it is cracked up to be.  These guys and dolls work on Wall street and in The City, in hugh glass mountains, birds of prey or better yet harpies.

So you coming into your cab from JFK Terminal 1 and your Serbian taxi driver who has a Phd in Electrical Engineering from University of Novi Sad , tells you that the hot tip is the bonds of Glencorp plc. which is almost junk bonds status as you ogle his 50000 USD Phillipe Patek watch when he gives you your change. You listen quietly and then the doorman at your hotel you hear is telling the baggage guy to invest in Nickle futures as Glencore plc is in trouble, and the doorman is wearing 1500 usd a pair balley shoes with a yellow diamond ring on his pinkie , that is another 10000 usd .  You go into your CNN hotel and there is Money talks interviewing CEO Glasenberg an Australian, Isareli Swiss South African , go figure that one, with his 12000 usd custom made Brioni and hand made Milanese shoes that cost 5000 usd a pair, the Vatican's red shoemaker .

Everywhere is investment histrionics in the street and it has infected the population.  You open the newspaper and see a company with 0 eps being brought for as the same price as another with  7 eps, all in stock, and read sensible CEOs , good managers with solid business models , cashing in their options and making 150 Mil usd compensation as a result.

Here is what you ought to do , repeat this little rhyme, you buy when there is blood and mayhem on the street and not a moment to soon , you sell when the servants under the room are eating cake and drinking champagne for breakfast and not a moment to late.

Better to have 3.5% and your capital with profit of 35% than see the profit at 95% be a lost of -35% and wonder , what the bloody hell!