By when can energy go 100% renewable?

12 years after the first clean energy roadmap was published, a 100% renewable energy system is realisable by 2035. As was the case in 2009 it is a question of political will and overcoming vested incumbent interests. The benefits to society, biodiversity, environment & climate of clean energy over fossil fuels are clear. Investment in renewables is paid for several times over by the economic, social, health and environmental savings. Technical feasability is confirmed by facts on the ground.

A 100% Renewable Energy System by 2035

On the eve of the 2009 Copenhagen climate summit Scientific American's cover story written by energy experts Mark Z. Jacobson and Mark A. Delucchi showed how a rigourously researched pathway to power the world with 100% renewable energy by 2030 was possible. The article concluded:

"A large-scale wind, water and solar (WWS) energy system can reliably supply the world’s needs, significantly benefiting climate, air quality, water quality, ecology and energy security...As we have shown, the obstacles are primarily political, not technical...(leaders) can start by committing to meaningful climate and renewable energy goals now".

12 years later on the eve of the Glasgow climate summit and global leaders are still not committting to meaningful climate and renewable energy goals with a global commitment that far exceeds 2°C warming Furthermore:

"...major bodies, such as IRENA and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), have only demanded to achieve 70% RE by 2050. The EU as a whole has only a 32% RE target in total energy by 2030, ...." The Global 100% Renewable Energy Strategy Group

The evidence (2009-2021)

Since 2009 hundreds of researchers worldwide from 13 research groups have published hundreds of papers on the feasibility of a 100% RE system and reached an important milestone on February 9 2021 with the publication of a 10 point Joint Declaration of The Global 100% Renewable Energy Strategy Group co-signed by 46 researchers .

Recognizing the importance of this declaration Eco-Watch reported in an article the day after its publication:

"Setting out to rebut defeatist and cynical claims that transitioning the entire global energy system to 100% renewables by 2035* is infeasible, a group of dozens of leading scientists from around the world unveiled a joint declaration Tuesday arguing that such a transformation of the fossil fuel-dependent status quo is not only necessary to avert climate disaster but eminently achievable" *2030 for electricity

The experts agree (click on expert name link for more...)

ECONOMICS: Tony Seba says the plunge in cost that has already made solar the cheapest electricity ever, combined with a further 70% drop to come in Solar Wind Battery (SWB) makes it the most cost effective option. He further explains that the non-linear trade-off between generation and storage means that at 3-5x generation you already have the cheapest 100% renewable energy system that only requires 1-4 days of storage. At 1% GDP SWB is the cheapest energy system option for US. Because of SWB design an additional 200-300% "super energy" can be achieved thanks to a further 20% investment. SWB with its near zero cost "super energy" electricity is therefore disruptive to all forms of energy for transportation, heating, industry, buildings not just electricity.

BENEFITS: Mark Jacobson says 100% RE solves both climate change, air pollution and secures cost-effective clean energy for all sectors:

1. brings down energy demand and costs by 57%,
2. lowers energy direct costs by 61% from $17.7 to $6.8 trillion/year
3. reduces social costs (energy health & climate costs) from $76.1 to $6.8 trillion/year, a 91% drop
4. needs only 0.65% land versus 1.35% for fossil fuels (in US)
5. prevents millions of lives lost to air pollution and eliminates GHG emissions from energy
6. creates tens of millions long term jobs

FACTS ON THE GROUND: Andrew Blakers Wind + Solar + Pumped Hydro + Transmission:

1. solar and wind cheaper than fossil fuels & 70% Electricity Generation in South Australia TODAY at $35/MWh 3.5¢/KWh (same price potential for 3/4 world population that lives in solar belt)
2. off-river pumped hydro sites are>100X storage needs for global 100% RE & cheapest 24h storage (as low as $1billion/Gigawatt for 24h, without dams)
3. pumped hydro already supplies 99% of storage worldwide
4. long-distance transmission is key e.g. connect windy N. Europe to sunny S. Europe, Texas to rest of USA
5. triple solar and wind in Australia 100% RE and you cover ALL energy needs (also transportation, heating and industry) and could go to zero coal, oil and gas by 2040, 2030 with political support.

TECHNICALLY FEASIBLE: Sven Teske Reach #carbonneutrality by 2040 by:

1. going to 100% #renewableenergy 
2. decarbonize entire energy sector* by 2050
3. staying within 450 GT #carbonbudget (without BECCS or more #nuclearenergy)
4.  #renewableeenergy availability for 72 subregions exceeds needs
5. yearly decrease of 2.5% GDP energy intensity
6. decrease in energy demand through #electrification
7. reduction in personal car, aviation travel, & increase in buildings efficiency
8. increase in electricity demand for all sectors e.g. #heatpumps , #electromobility, some #hydrogen and #synthetic fuels
9. some #biomass for #aviation , heavy industrial processes
10. 27% to 40% (2030) 100% (2050) #renewableelectricity** progression, phase out of Nuclear by 2040
11. at a global level #investment pays for itself through #costsavings (without`future cost reductions in renewables)
12. dominating source Solar and wind 65% variable, Dispatchable: CSP, #biomass, #geothermalenergy , #cleanhydrogen synthetic fuel
13. Storage: #pumpedhydro with #batterystorage #hydrogenstorage

Conclusion

The research is clear, the benefits of clean energy and the efficiency of a 100% renewable energy system over fossil fuels can not be contested. The world would achieve lower energy costs and more secure, resilient, fairer and distributed energy that is more accessible by all. We would solve the climate crisis, keep within 1.5°C global warming. We would no longer need nuclear energy, industrial carbon capture and storage (CCS), energy crops for CCS or riskiest forms of geo-engineering to do so. We would still need hydrogen, some biomass and bio-fuels for heavy industry for the next years WHY WAIT?

This article is an update of an article previously published on We Don't Have Time