Why do I attend OPEC meetings but I will not be at Doha?

Roughly 40 MMb/d worth of oil ministers and other officials will be in Doha this weekend to talk about a "production freeze" on 4/17/16.  I have been attending OPEC meetings for years but it was an easy decision to skip Doha.  Should the meeting goes as consensus expects and there is no agreement to actually take any steps to hasten the looming tightening of the oil markets, the ministers may find this the most expensive trip of their lives.  If the market behaves anywhere near how it behaved the last few times OPEC disappointed  the market, you can expect $3-5/b off the price of oil next week.  Over a month this will cost the participants ~3.5 to 6 billion, harking back to a similar, but smaller meeting between Russia, Venezuela and Saudi Arabia the day before the fateful November 27, 2014 OPEC meeting.  That busted meeting took 2+ out of the market with the next day taking it from $76 down to $71/b.

Of course I have attended many OPEC meetings where it is obvious long before I show up that nothing will occur.  And I, like many other analysts, have written post- OPEC meeting reports before I even left home.  But I attend those meetings for a reason that I see lacking (so far) in the Doha approach.  OPEC meetings, even those marked by boredom and well-telegraphed outcomes, provides me and others with a view of how the market and the organization may develop at the next meeting and the meeting after that.  That seems missing in Doha.  This meeting appears likely to be a one-off, particularly if the market delivers a harsh rebuke to the expected non-action, however they may try to frame any agreement.  

Getting this many producers in one room is an impressive result for the always aspiring Qatar foreign policy efforts, but it is unlikely this group will assemble again.  Most do not have the ability to do much more than they have been doing, and while there may be some feeling of solidarity in the mutual pain of low prices, the savvy players recognize the danger of real action.  Sharply higher prices will slow the US production fall, extending the time before the market balances, and pushing volume share away from this group and towards two non-participants: Iran and the United States.

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